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January 11-12 Snowstorm Disco


Baroclinic Zone

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GYX's update, AWT........

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

UPDATE...

STORM JUST BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE (1012MB) OFF THE COAST EAST OF

DELAWARE AT THIS HOUR. THE BEST SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS REMAIN TO

THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM ALONG THE NEARSHORE BUOYS OF THE NJ SHORE.

EXPECT ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS AND CONVECTION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT

FEW HOURS IN THIS AREA AS RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVERNIGHT.

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK. CURRENTLY WATCHING

LOCAL TRENDS AND NEW 00Z MODEL SUITE BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS

TO THE FORECAST. IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO NUDGE NORTHWARD WITH

THE STORM...PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF MAINE AND NORTH-

CENTRAL NH MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED FROM AN ADVISORY TO A MINIMAL WARNING.

OTHERWISE..WILL NEED TO TWEAK TEMPS AND DEW POINTS DOWNWARDS BASED

ON CURRENT TRENDS.

Doesn't actually say they are considering upping our totals, just expanding warnings north. I couldn't believe reading it they didn't change them a little. Example, Taunton has Manchester, NH under 10-14, while Gray has Derry, NH, right next to it, and actually south of it, in 6-10.

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I know it won't happen...but geez with a greenland blocking high and a possible occlusion...it would be nice to see this sloooooooooooooow down to a crawl for about 24 hours while heading into the GOM...Ok great I get the wish casting award for the night...who doesn't fantasize during these events and their outcomes....Nowcasting baby Nowcasting!

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Doesn't actually say they are considering upping our totals, just expanding warnings north. I couldn't believe reading it they didn't change them a little. Example, Taunton has Manchester, NH under 10-14, while Gray has Derry, NH, right next to it, and actually south of it, in 6-10.

If they go to a warning up there for higher amounts, Are's should go up as well.....

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GYX's update, AWT........

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

UPDATE...

STORM JUST BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE (1012MB) OFF THE COAST EAST OF

DELAWARE AT THIS HOUR. THE BEST SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS REMAIN TO

THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM ALONG THE NEARSHORE BUOYS OF THE NJ SHORE.

EXPECT ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS AND CONVECTION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT

FEW HOURS IN THIS AREA AS RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVERNIGHT.

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK. CURRENTLY WATCHING

LOCAL TRENDS AND NEW 00Z MODEL SUITE BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS

TO THE FORECAST. IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO NUDGE NORTHWARD WITH

THE STORM...PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF MAINE AND NORTH-

CENTRAL NH MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED FROM AN ADVISORY TO A MINIMAL WARNING.

OTHERWISE..WILL NEED TO TWEAK TEMPS AND DEW POINTS DOWNWARDS BASED

ON CURRENT TRENDS.

Don't the models that are being favored ones that have parts of GYX forecast area getting 1 inch+ qpf? in this situation wouldn't that mean 12 - 16 inches? What am I missing here? I mean, these guys are mets so I assume they know what they are doing...certainly more than me, but doesn't that seem strange? Anyone reading the zone forecast would think we are getting a run of the mill storm up here, no biggie 6-10 inches. Folks may wake up to something much more than that. I see the weenie side of this but I expected to wake up today to a 6-10 forecast...after the models today I assumed we would be upgraded to 10-15.

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Don't the models that are being favored ones that have parts of GYX forecast area getting 1 inch+ qpf? in this situation wouldn't that mean 12 - 16 inches? What am I missing here? I mean, these guys are mets so I assume they know what they are doing...certainly more than me, but doesn't that seem strange? Anyone reading the zone forecast would think we are getting a run of the mill storm up here, no biggie 6-10 inches. Folks may wake up to something much more than that. I see the weenie side of this but I expected to wake up today to a 6-10 forecast...after the models today I assumed we would be upgraded to 10-15.

THANK YOU. I have been perplexed all evening

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