Baroclinic Zone Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 Just looked at the 3h point soundings on TwisterData and I saw nothing that showed me above 0c anywhere except at the surface. This was the warmest sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rboarderi Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Wow.. the NAM has consistently been painting a bullseye right over my computer the past 3 runs. 2.2"+ on all of them. The X on the 00z is 10 miles from here. Yeah! I'm right down the road in Niantic, the NAM is such a bullseye for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 Should be soon, but for whatever reason, I notice the 21z graphics take forever on the ewall site. Maybe in like 10 min or so. Snow prob.s are up already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 LOL I'm just glad we got the NAM out of the way so to speak. Now watch the GFS move it to Buffalo. The NAM clown graphics 1000-850 keep critical thicknesses here cold enough through about 7-8am, then it warms but now just barely. If it's still in error and adjusts 10 miles east thats all done. YET knowing this track I still suspect we get some warm air intrusion and I'm not yet excited pending the rest of the data suite. This thing will go to town later, so I'd still watch out for some crazy trends. It's possible it could still go near the Canal, but it was nice to see the NAM go east a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zoe456 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 As they say...long time (observer - since eastern wx) first time (poster)...Heckuva time for me to jump in I know. Love reading the model breakdowns, and the polite banter! You guys rock. Here's hoping we in KPWM territory get some model love. GYX is rather conservative and isn't pulling any triggers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I must remember your play by play and pics during the Jan 2005 blizzard. I think you got 3 feet right? Chuck em! Most all of this today didn't matter to you guys...difference was 15" vs 18", 18" vs 21"... but for me and for Phil and people out on the fringe w NW it did matter. The NAM is a predictable (apparently) model at 5h where it continues to overdevelop these microcenters. If this does play out tonight and it was in error again NCEP needs to figure out why because in these instances it was very obvious but it's likely part of the reason it's not been a great model at all levels. Everyone is telling me this is a different situation/pattern/blocking and the model did the same damned thing. So, unless it spins up the microcenter at 5h again later tonight at 6z or other models have it....NAM 5h fail. How does it look temp wise here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Before I left work I unlocked the 8-12 and upgraded to 10-14. I think that is a good forecast for you and me. I would consider it conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 good to have you! As they say...long time (observer - since eastern wx) first time (poster)...Heckuva time for me to jump in I know. Love reading the model breakdowns, and the polite banter! You guys rock. Here's hoping we in KPWM territory get some model love. GYX is rather conservative and isn't pulling any triggers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 When do the damn sref graphics update on the ewall website? I wanna see the ptype charts. Trying to make a forecast for my folks on eastern li. They will be dangerously close to the rn/sn line methinks. These are out.http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREFPROBNE_21z/probtyploop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Looks like pytpe updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 This thing will go to town later, so I'd still watch out for some crazy trends. It's possible it could still go near the Canal, but it was nice to see the NAM go east a bit. Scott 100% agree and if it does someone will say I was wrong about it...but all along I've posted 5h maps not surface or 700 or anything else. Whatever it is doing at 5h...convective feedback or some other feedback process it's creating intense micro centers above strong convective type echoes. The old NAM could turn out to be right who the heck knows on the track. But at 5h I don't think it'll recover those vortmax's that seemed out of place, and without those QPF will be more in line with all the other models. That was the part I think some weren't getting today, it had a lot more to do with just the amount of QPF than the surface track, but anyway, let's see if it was right (old runs ) first. Just like the other two systems it was too far NW on, it's developing intense, intense vorticity maximums right above/in association with intense uvv's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 As they say...long time (observer - since eastern wx) first time (poster)...Heckuva time for me to jump in I know. Love reading the model breakdowns, and the polite banter! You guys rock. Here's hoping we in KPWM territory get some model love. GYX is rather conservative and isn't pulling any triggers. Howdy, neighbor. We're having fun tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralmass Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 So, everyone ready for go time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrokenASOS Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 As they say...long time (observer - since eastern wx) first time (poster)...Heckuva time for me to jump in I know. Love reading the model breakdowns, and the polite banter! You guys rock. Here's hoping we in KPWM territory get some model love. GYX is rather conservative and isn't pulling any triggers. Welcome to the board! There seem to be a handful of us in an around Portland and the midcoast. Looks like 8-14 is a good bet for us here now. I'm out. Hopefully getting up around 4AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Forgot these. Thanks...now I've got to go change my pants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I think that is a good forecast for you and me. I would consider it conservative. You have a better chance of scoring those totals down towards you, I think i had 7-14" down there........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Incredible radar echos, wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 As they say...long time (observer - since eastern wx) first time (poster)...Heckuva time for me to jump in I know. Love reading the model breakdowns, and the polite banter! You guys rock. Here's hoping we in KPWM territory get some model love. GYX is rather conservative and isn't pulling any triggers. Greetings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Wow. Look at the fireworks off the NJ coast. That is really cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
briweather16 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Boston Metro jackpot!!!!!! loving the new NAM Yea all of southeastern CT is in the 2.0 to 2.5 QPF wow.....you can call this an all nighter....i would love to see some thundersnow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 These are out. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREFPROBNE_21z/probtyploop.html Thanks guys. Man, the folks are right on the line for awhile. Im gonna tell them around a foot with potential for 12-18 if it stays cold enuf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Forgot these. Yes please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I wonder if the mayor or govenor is going to declare a state of emergency for Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 You have a better chance of scoring those totals down towards you, I think i had 7-14" down there........ Quite a spread you got there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Yea all of southeastern CT is in the 2.0 to 2.5 QPF wow.....you can call this an all nighter....i would love to see some thundersnow! I m happy just to be close enough to the bullseye to get hit hard. looking at the radar its going to be one hell of a night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 GYX's update, AWT........ NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... UPDATE... STORM JUST BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE (1012MB) OFF THE COAST EAST OF DELAWARE AT THIS HOUR. THE BEST SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM ALONG THE NEARSHORE BUOYS OF THE NJ SHORE. EXPECT ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS AND CONVECTION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THIS AREA AS RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVERNIGHT. WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK. CURRENTLY WATCHING LOCAL TRENDS AND NEW 00Z MODEL SUITE BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO NUDGE NORTHWARD WITH THE STORM...PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF MAINE AND NORTH- CENTRAL NH MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED FROM AN ADVISORY TO A MINIMAL WARNING. OTHERWISE..WILL NEED TO TWEAK TEMPS AND DEW POINTS DOWNWARDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
briweather16 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I m happy just to be close enough to the bullseye to get hit hard. looking at the radar its going to be one hell of a night. Yes this is going to be one hell of a night...i think we could most deff. see some thundersnow...this is going to be nuts come after midnight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeVries Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I wonder if the mayor or govenor is going to declare a state of emergency for Mass. I heard they already declared one...or will at midnight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 This has to be one of the best looking upstream radars in a while. Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Quite a spread you got there Should have been 8-14" but i had already done the map and had it up on 2 sites, I am waiting for GFS to see if i tweak up some.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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