Baroclinic Zone Posted January 12, 2011 Author Share Posted January 12, 2011 Its in line now with the gfs ens mean and sref snow probs. Seems reasonable. Just have to continue to watch that bl warmth for awhile tho. Yeah, time to play the waiting game on the soundings. This thing is coming in like a wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 No idea what this means from ALY update: AS OF 830 PM...IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE TRENDS THIS EVENING AS MAIN UPPER LOW OVER OHIO HAS BEGUN TO TRANSFER ITS UPPER SUPPORT TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER EASTERN PA INTO NJ WITH UPSTREAM RADARS REVEALING AN EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE EXPANSION OF REFLECTIVITY. 500MB 120+KT WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS TENNESSEE WHICH HAS BEGUN TO INTERACT WITH THE TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH STRONG AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING. AS SUGGESTED EARLIER...SEEMS THE SURFACE LOW TRACK MAY TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE COAST PER THE ISALLOBARIC DROPS FROM MSAS/HRRR. HOWEVER...WITH THIS CLOSER TRACK...POTENTIAL FOR GRAVITY WAVES PER THE FORECAST DUCT FUNCTION WHICH COULD LIMIT THE PRECIP SHIELD TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. FOR NOW...NO CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES AND INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. Hope we all get rocked! 19.3/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I canceled the day...won't be denied the enjoyment... I hope you get another 18+ inches Jerry. Enjoy the snow day with the family My wife's school still has not cancelled. Must be the only one in the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeVries Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I canceled the day...won't be denied the enjoyment... I would too if I had the choice. I'm literally giong to be going in and hanging out for several hours doing almost nothing, then going home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 It looks a little east into the GOM for those nne peeps, but verbatim it gets good QPF up that way. It might be that the 00z is a little quicker. The 0.50" and 1.00" QPF contours on the 00z NAM look similar up here to the 12z EC. I'm locking in 1" QPF here and 8-14". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Can we say it now, AWT...note how cold it is too, I may not even change much now. It's not very often you deliver good news. Just keep the wet rag on standby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 No idea what this means from ALY update: AS OF 830 PM...IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE TRENDS THIS EVENING AS MAIN UPPER LOW OVER OHIO HAS BEGUN TO TRANSFER ITS UPPER SUPPORT TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER EASTERN PA INTO NJ WITH UPSTREAM RADARS REVEALING AN EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE EXPANSION OF REFLECTIVITY. 500MB 120+KT WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS TENNESSEE WHICH HAS BEGUN TO INTERACT WITH THE TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH STRONG AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING. AS SUGGESTED EARLIER...SEEMS THE SURFACE LOW TRACK MAY TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE COAST PER THE ISALLOBARIC DROPS FROM MSAS/HRRR. HOWEVER...WITH THIS CLOSER TRACK...POTENTIAL FOR GRAVITY WAVES PER THE FORECAST DUCT FUNCTION WHICH COULD LIMIT THE PRECIP SHIELD TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. FOR NOW...NO CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES AND INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. Hope we all get rocked! 19.3/11 wtf? Has to be a typo in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Looks great for a lot of some real dedicated weenies who suffered through the abyss that 10 was. I am happy for all of our snow geeks. Shot hour! I'm hoping that what is likely my last winter storm in attleboro is my best one. Need to beat 16.5" from 12/19/09...then i can walk away from the game like john elway after winning the SB. Lol. Drink up bro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 From ALY- AS OF 830 PM...IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE TRENDS THIS EVENING AS MAIN UPPER LOW OVER OHIO HAS BEGUN TO TRANSFER ITS UPPER SUPPORT TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER EASTERN PA INTO NJ WITH UPSTREAM RADARS REVEALING AN EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE EXPANSION OF REFLECTIVITY. 500MB 120+KT WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS TENNESSEE WHICH HAS BEGUN TO INTERACT WITH THE TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH STRONG AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING. AS SUGGESTED EARLIER...SEEMS THE SURFACE LOW TRACK MAY TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE COAST PER THE ISALLOBARIC DROPS FROM MSAS/HRRR. HOWEVER...WITH THIS CLOSER TRACK...POTENTIAL FOR GRAVITY WAVES PER THE FORECAST DUCT FUNCTION WHICH COULD LIMIT THE PRECIP SHIELD TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. FOR NOW...NO CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES AND INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. When the western most model goes east to every other model....time to go east. Barring a 1/25 tuck job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 who will get the bands from hell? no one wanna make a call on the where the M level low closes? trends.....help a weenie out. hopefully there are no SNEAKY warm layers. anything modeled around 8H or so that goes above 0C? 850's are a few C warmer than 925's over SE 1/2 of ny (-10 at 925 & - 4.5 at 850) i guess from the parent low over Erie, pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Nam did not change precip totals up here from 18z, But it shifted East in MA, Jackpot more towards Eastern MA Yeah I was just comparing them in NH and ME, almost identical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Its in line now with the gfs ens mean and sref snow probs. Seems reasonable. Just have to continue to watch that bl warmth for awhile tho. There's a nice clustering now towards maybe the outer Cape or ACK. NAM lessened my DS fears a bit, but still gets close of perhaps moves in briefly. Luckily, it looks like some strong low level forcing could possibly help out, like during the 12/26 storm. We'll see about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 If the GFS/EURO/UK are still east a bit of this, we'll see a tick east. It's still hanging onto the idea of a mini death spiral right over Bob's house, but it's losing it fast each run. With that removed I think we see it tick more towards ACK, and all dry slot/temp issues are gone for most of SEMA NW of me. One thing the NAM has done - is never stop moving...unless the other guidance comes west to meet this solution I think it's still going a tick or two east. I must remember your play by play and pics during the Jan 2005 blizzard. I think you got 3 feet right? Chuck em! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 .POTENTIAL FOR GRAVITY WAVES PER THE FORECAST DUCT FUNCTION Total absolute Adam and Eve nakedness going on in the party now, things are spiraling out of control. There is coed naked synchronized snow swimming going on. Shot hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Liking this.. gonna get raped by banding.. shawnee tmrw aftn!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Helluva storm to have to watch 3,200 miles away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 There's a nice clustering now towards maybe the outer Cape or ACK. NAM lessened my DS fears a bit, but still gets close of perhaps moves in briefly. Luckily, it looks like some strong low level forcing could possibly help out, like during the 12/26 storm. We'll see about that. Forgot these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 The 0.50" and 1.00" QPF contours on the 00z NAM look similar up here to the 12z EC. I'm locking in 1" QPF here and 8-14". I have 6-12" here....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 roads and sidewalks are covered in brooklyn http://www.justin.tv/grumpy_pc#/w/750657184 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 When do the damn sref graphics update on the ewall website? I wanna see the ptype charts. Trying to make a forecast for my folks on eastern li. They will be dangerously close to the rn/sn line methinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Wow.. the NAM has consistently been painting a bullseye right over my computer the past 3 runs. 2.2"+ on all of them. The X on the 00z is 10 miles from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Nam did not change precip totals up here from 18z, But it shifted East in MA, Jackpot more towards Eastern MA Good to hear! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 The 0.50" and 1.00" QPF contours on the 00z NAM look similar up here to the 12z EC. I'm locking in 1" QPF here and 8-14". I think you'll get into the good stuff after 12z...esp by late morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 It's not very often you deliver good news. Just keep the wet rag on standby. LOL I'm just glad we got the NAM out of the way so to speak. Now watch the GFS move it to Buffalo. The NAM clown graphics 1000-850 keep critical thicknesses here cold enough through about 7-8am, then it warms but now just barely. If it's still in error and adjusts 10 miles east thats all done. YET knowing this track I still suspect we get some warm air intrusion and I'm not yet excited pending the rest of the data suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 When do the damn sref graphics update on the ewall website? I wanna see the ptype charts. Trying to make a forecast for my folks on eastern li. They will be dangerously close to the rn/sn line methinks. Should be soon, but for whatever reason, I notice the 21z graphics take forever on the ewall site. Maybe in like 10 min or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I have 6-12" here....... Before I left work I unlocked the 8-12 and upgraded to 10-14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Check 36 Hour totals on NAM. Looks fantastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Wow.. the NAM has consistently been painting a bullseye right over my computer the past 3 runs. 2.2"+ on all of them. The X on the 00z is 10 miles from here. Yeah, we are going to get crushed here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 2011/01/12 02:08 KDXR 120208Z 08006KT 4SM -SN BKN026 OVC050 M04/M09 A2995 RMK AO2 SNB02 P0000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Man that radar just east of NJ is impressive, Has to be some decent pressure falls occuring there....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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