Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm thinking about an 8 hour snowbomb with light snows on each side...a slightly longer duration version of 12/9/05. So instead of max snowfalls in the 16" range, we will probably see a few spots over 20". I like a track near or just inside ACK. (Nantucket) But it could perhaps wind up even closer if this goes nuts enough. I remember just how much of a nowcast event 12/9/05 was...things were changing so quickly in that. . I ended up with a pretty good forecast heding toward the mesoscale models in that, but in the end, it still wasnt quite bullish enough. Gay and Blizz FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 actually...down here in CT...it's a pretty significant shift back west with the 1" contour I'd feel great if I were where you are. I think I'm still good for 10, but man, I could see that or 20 at this point. It's going to be a tight one here. It'll be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Come on. Look at the SLP initialized on the Euro. It's clear it IS missing something. People are so biased to the EURO or GFS like it can do no wrong. And, I know you can't stand the NAM, but you have to look in to it's strengths. Here's the 12z NAM vs 18z 0h init...the NAM was horrific. That's an abomination for a 6h forecast with all features sitting squarely in the USA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm thinking about an 8 hour snowbomb with light snows on each side...a slightly longer duration version of 12/9/05. So instead of max snowfalls in the 16" range, we will probably see a few spots over 20". I like a track near or just inside ACK. (Nantucket) But it could perhaps wind up even closer if this goes nuts enough. I remember just how much of a nowcast event 12/9/05 was...things were changing so quickly in that. . I ended up with a pretty good forecast heding toward the mesoscale models in that, but in the end, it still wasnt quite bullish enough. S of ORH? I'm thinking Rte 146 area could be whacked pretty good. Good luck with this event as far as your work goes. I appreciate all you do. Dave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Out to 12 hours, a slightly flatter flow leads to slp position about 20 miles SE of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 HAHA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 15z sref: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It may look like it shifted west but it really stayed the same if not ticked slight to the southeast with its' area coverage of the 1" liquid mark expansion. That's all. Looks like a colder, snowier scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 HAHA CT Rain's job is simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Kinda of like saying "all it takes to win Powerball". lol Yeah...but unlike the lottery...somebody definitely has the right numbers in this case. 3-4"/hr rates will set up somewhere for a period. Its just a matter of who gets it. As much as I want it farther west over my area...my gut right now is saying eastern CT, up through NW RI up to around Boston. In other words, 10-15 miles on either side of a line connecting Norwich CT and Boston. I'm thinking areas inside that area have the best shot at 20"+ amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The SREFs are incredible with the qpf generated near 12z tomorrow. Everything is coming together perfectly, with the mid levels and low levels working in harmony to produce mega precip rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 HAHA Everybody FTW with that on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 just a tad east @ 15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Out to 12 hours, a slightly flatter flow leads to slp position about 20 miles SE of 12z H5 and sfc low look pretty darn similar through 12 HR to the 12z run...hardly any difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This is perfect....His forecast is actually pretty accurate for SE Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Just got my Euro QPF, and it def. bumped everybody N and E of ORH up. Well up. One hell of a CCB on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 At surface 12h, 18Z ETA SLP slightly SE and 4mb weaker vs. 12Z ETA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Everybody FTW with that on! That should be framed and hung on walls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Did the Clown Map run out of colors??? That is really weird looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Low clouds have taken over. Looks like a perfect snow sky. Meso mods Ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'd feel great if I were where you are. I think I'm still good for 10, but man, I could see that or 20 at this point. It's going to be a tight one here. It'll be fun to watch. I don't know...the Euro really deflated my expectation a bit...I'm thinking the best banding sets up just east of here. Just said above...draw a line from Norwich up to Boston...areas within about 15 miles of that line have the best shot at breaking the 20" mark. I'm thinking 12-16" more likely where I am. Probably 10-14" back towards your area. Still...holding off hope that the Euro and GFS are underestimating the impact of banding towards western areas. But starting to lose faith. We'll see if the 18z GFS can tick back any further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 okx hugging the NAM? mm5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 H5 already closing off at 18 HR...wasn't the case on the 12z run for the same time (24 HR) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NAM looks identical to 12z, despite a little east at first. It looks like it responds to the incredible forcing, making it move due north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 A bit funkier along the coast though with the heights. Very similar to 12z...... maybe like 5-10mi east of 12z at 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbsfreeenergy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 15z sref: compare: 9z: 15z: I like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 You can put it on the board.....YES! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I don't know...the Euro really deflated my expectation a bit...I'm thinking the best banding sets up just east of here. Just said above...draw a line from Norwich up to Boston...areas within about 15 miles of that line have the best shot at breaking the 20" mark. I'm thinking 12-16" more likely where I am. Probably 10-14" back towards your area. Still...holding off hope that the Euro and GFS are underestimating the impact of banding towards western areas. But starting to lose faith. We'll see if the 18z GFS can tick back any further west. Hmm thanks for your thoughts. I agree with what you said for me. We'll selflessly hope it rides back our way like the mesos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah...but unlike the lottery...somebody definitely has the right numbers in this case. 3-4"/hr rates will set up somewhere for a period. Its just a matter of who gets it. As much as I want it farther west over my area...my gut right now is saying eastern CT, up through NW RI up to around Boston. In other words, 10-15 miles on either side of a line connecting Norwich CT and Boston. I'm thinking areas inside that area have the best shot at 20"+ amounts. That would work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Nice looking SE Flow upslope for the foothills here through 18 maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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