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January 11-12 Snowstorm Disco


Baroclinic Zone

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And... how good a skiier are you and your kids? Not a beginner-friendly mountain.

I've skied since I was 3. Have worked as a instructor, patroller, ski reporter etc. Skiing is my life. Have a 5yo daughter that started skiing at 3. She's starting to shred. Air it out at MRG.

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From ALY-

AS OF 830 PM...IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE TRENDS THIS EVENING AS MAIN

UPPER LOW OVER OHIO HAS BEGUN TO TRANSFER ITS UPPER SUPPORT TO THE

MID ATLANTIC COAST. RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER EASTERN PA INTO

NJ WITH UPSTREAM RADARS REVEALING AN EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE EXPANSION OF

REFLECTIVITY. 500MB 120+KT WAS PROGRESSING ACROSS TENNESSEE WHICH

HAS BEGUN TO INTERACT WITH THE TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST OFF

THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH STRONG AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING. AS

SUGGESTED EARLIER...SEEMS THE SURFACE LOW TRACK MAY TRACK A LITTLE

FURTHER TO THE COAST PER THE ISALLOBARIC DROPS FROM MSAS/HRRR.

HOWEVER...WITH THIS CLOSER TRACK...POTENTIAL FOR GRAVITY WAVES PER

THE FORECAST DUCT FUNCTION WHICH COULD LIMIT THE PRECIP SHIELD TO

THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. FOR NOW...NO CHANGES TO

THE HEADLINES AND INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF

THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

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A I T :yikes:

Hopefully it's correct. I've been pretty confident all day that the NAM would come E and it has.

Its in line now with the gfs ens mean and sref snow probs. Seems reasonable. Just have to continue to watch that bl warmth for awhile tho.

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Nam sez we sittin pretty bob.

Coming from a SE weenie poster that just managed thru one crippling snowfall yesterday, and one who is leaving for Hartford on Thursday afternoon, this ain't lookin' good! (well, actually it looks awesome!) :thumbsup:

Would you be so kind as to shed some insight on the storm impact one could expect from an event of this magnitude in the NE? (not including NYC strikers of course) Roads, flights, etc?

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Yeah nam is a bit further east overall...good for me anyway...may take fears of bl and dry slot problems away a bit for I95. Ginx jackpot?

If the GFS/EURO/UK are still east a bit of this, we'll see a tick east. It's still hanging onto the idea of a mini death spiral right over Bob's house, but it's losing it fast each run. With that removed I think we see it tick more towards ACK, and all dry slot/temp issues are gone for most of SEMA NW of me.

One thing the NAM has done - is never stop moving...unless the other guidance comes west to meet this solution I think it's still going a tick or two east.

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