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January 11-12 Snowstorm Disco


Baroclinic Zone

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Ever been there? The trail count will probably go up to 100% shortly. The Birdland section serviced by the double is the part of the area with the less severe terrain (although there is still some nosebleed steep stuff in there as well). That section is far less prone to wind scouring than the Summit serviced by the Single. The vast majority of the terrain off the Single is very steep and at the Summit, with the very light dry snow they've been getting, susceptible to scouring. I'll be there Thursday and if the Single isn't running (though I expect it will be) we'll just skin up to access the goods in the steep trees. Best skiing in the East (sorry powderfreak). As for the not being tucked in to the coast as far as I can tell you're alone on that, so far.

Cool, and no. Hoping to go this year. I noticed Burke has a low trail count too...no snow?

Pressure falls look east of the Delmarva and then extending nw with the parent low, where they should be. Lows don't necessarily have to gravitate to the strongest pressure falls. All the models had this scraping the coast near 00z, but then the baroclinic zone slowly moves east, as the storm develops and moves north. I do agree NYC could get interesting, but it will be a close call!

100% agree. I don't see anything yet that makes me think any model is busting badly. Sure at 5h there's some issues, but that's been par for the course lately.

Perhaps you didn't see some of the buoys earlier, but at 18Z there were reports of 1012, and at 21 Z 1013. 0Z it is off coast--and no buoys are available now where the low is progged to be. Best I can see now is 1012 but the low already passed through.

I did, but I think SPC and everyone else decided it's kind of a flat area of low pressure right now around 1011-1013 which is right where the models have it. I think Scott explaiend everything else pretty well. Over the next few hours we'll see how it goes, this is where the NAM/Meso's went nuts (next 3 hours) and where there started to be some separation between solutions.

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Feels like a repeat of Boxing Day :P

mcd0019.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0019

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0700 PM CST TUE JAN 11 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA...NJ...SERN NY AND SRN CT

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 120100Z - 120600Z

SNOWFALL RATES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH EVENING INTO THE

EARLY MORNING FROM ERN PA AND NJ THROUGH SERN NY AND SRN CT. RATES

LOCALLY GREATER THAN 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z.

THIS EVENING A STRONG 150+ KT UPPER JET WAS MOVING EWD THROUGH BASE

OF TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE OH VALLEY. AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING WITHIN

EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE WILL OVERTAKE BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE

MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD...RESULTING IN DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW OFF

THE VA COAST AS IT LIFTS NWD OVERNIGHT. THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW

WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND A

STRENGTHENING LLJ WHICH WILL AUGMENT ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE MID

ATLANTIC SEABOARD NWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. TRENDS ALREADY

INDICATE SNOW EXPANDING IN COVERAGE FROM ERN PA INTO NJ. THE SNOW

WILL LIKELY BECOME ORGANIZED AS BANDS LATER THIS EVENING AND

TONIGHT. STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN UPPER JET EXIT REGION

WILL RESULT IN CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT WITH SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY

ALSO POSSIBLE. A DEEP SUBFREEZING LAYER WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE

MOSTLY AOA -5C WILL EXIST BENEATH THE DEVELOPING UNSTABLE LAYER

WHICH COULD SERVE TO FURTHER AUGMENT SNOWFLAKE GROWTH THROUGH

AGGREGATION. RATES WILL LIKELY LOCALLY EXCEED 1 INCH PER HOUR AT

TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITHIN CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.

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It wouldn't be right if I didn't point out that is heading right for me. I think I'm sitting in a great spot.

With every radar/pressure update, the mesos seem to be looking better and better. Don't know about you, but I'm getting kind of excited.

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I'm thinking about taking a trip to Mad River Glen in Vermont. Anyone know if this mountain is good for skiing with kids?

If they aren't total beginners. MRG has a great intermediatesection but a little light on stuff for true novices. Great atmosphere and family friendly.

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Messenger, how's it looking for us down in this neck of the woods? I figure I'll change over for a little but but hoping I can get a front end dump before so...thoughts?

Juggling little ones so not paying a heck of a lot of attention. Just did up this animation which is the 0z RUC v 6h Nam and 0z Ruc vs 6h GFS.

NAM had a better handle I think one some things, GFS some others, probably would lean NAM seeing this overlay with the understanding that the RUC usually hits the vorticity even harder than the NAM and it's not there on the 0z. one thing to mention is the ML is slightly stronger than the NAM modeled I mean its a tiny difference but HM did mention in a post something about it kicking everything east. I haven't looked enough to care, in 40 minutes we'll have an answer anyway.

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