moneypitmike Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 The 06Z NAm may very well verify on track if the trends continue. Or better:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 This thing is already under modeled. The coastal is being under-forecasted, and the latest pressure falls are up the coast. The low is already W of any model. The way it is already exploding is impressive. The real fireworks don't begin for another 4-6 hours until the dynamic trop reaches the coast. This could very well hug the coast with the 06Z NAM verifying. Agreed, very interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spit Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I can still see the sliver of the moon through cirrus and Orion in Northern New London County. Weird but real cool & quiet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I can still see the sliver of the moon through cirrus and Orion in Northern New London County. Weird but real cool & quiet Hey where are you located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 How is it under forecast? 18z NAM had it at 1012, 18z GFS had it at 1013. Lowest reported pressure anywhere that I could find at 0z is 1012.7. I wouldn't even bother with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 New 23z RUC Murders W CT and W MA with 2-5" per hour mega band around hours 13-15 (at 10:1 ratios) Out of its range... but still.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 SPC analysis, RUC, buoy data and everything else show this is about exactly as modeled universally today...1012-1013. Am I missing a 995mb buoy with a microcane forming over it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Agreed, very interesting I think it seems pretty close tot he NAM and models like WRF-NMM. So far so good...I don't see any surprises or anything yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 The 06Z NAm may very well verify on track if the trends continue. Fan freakin' tastic. Fits in perfectly with the NW bump of the band/heaviest snow discussed this afternoon. Look at that area from north DE to south/central NJ and southeast PA, wow. Coming our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 New 23z RUC Murders W CT and W MA with 2-5" per hour mega band around hours 13-15 (at 10:1 ratios) Out of its range... but still.... are you saying that's the ratios it's putting out...or that's what it'd be at those ratios? I'm hoping we don't get a nasty heavy wet snow like that. no good for skiing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I wouldn't even bother with the GFS. Yeah but how is it being under modeled at this hour? The pressure is right around where it was forecast by every single model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I think it seems pretty close tot he NAM and models like WRF-NMM. So far so good...I don't see any surprises or anything yet. The latest pressure fall analysis has the greatest falls along the coastline well NW of the current low. 18Z NAM takes this NE, pressure fall analysis will have this developing NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I think it seems pretty close tot he NAM and models like WRF-NMM. So far so good...I don't see any surprises or anything yet. If that means more snow for the Portland, ME area, I love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
briweather16 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Hey where are you located? Hello, i am from Griswold...but in Norwich for the night....whats up guys from Eastern CT??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 it seems to be going as planned the concern in these situaitons is the OV low hold on longer, but im not seeing that precip shield breaking up there at the expense of an organizing coastal important trends, especially for the S SNE coastline and CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 The latest pressure fall analysis has the greatest falls along the coastline well NW of the current low. 18Z NAM takes this NE, pressure fall analysis will have this developing NW. i've been looking for that map, do u have a source? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Here's the 6h 18z GFS, 1012, pretty much exactly where the SPC drew it, it's maybe 1/2 a MB weak as the 1014 is pushed out more by the SPC. Omega looked to line up well with what we saw on the radar etc at 0z. NAM wasn't bad either...GFS probably should have been 5-10 miles west. GFS did a pretty good job of pinpointing less than stellar returns of DE where the NAM was going to town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 are you saying that's the ratios it's putting out...or that's what it'd be at those ratios? I'm hoping we don't get a nasty heavy wet snow like that. no good for skiing Wrong! That's what we need to get into the trees. Blah for the trails! We need base snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 New 23z RUC Murders W CT and W MA with 2-5" per hour mega band around hours 13-15 (at 10:1 ratios) Out of its range... but still.... That makes me feel pretty good...as the RUC is almost always too wrapped up west at that time range. I think a band might initially try and setup out there but its going to go to town a little further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spit Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Hey where are you located? Lebanon I usually just look and listen to the weather & everyone's chatter. V Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I've been trying to figure out what the f*** the MRG site is all about. What's going on with the trails being closed or am I on an old page? -- Far as closer to the coast stuff goes...oregon inlet marina is about 1012.7, that's essentially exactly what both the 18z GFS and NAM had per these maps http://tempest.aos.w..._cpres_h006.gif http://tempest.aos.w..._cprese_h06.gif If anything the NAM was a mb too strong....but inconsequential crap when we're talking about 1012-1013 at this stage, means nothing. Ever been there? The trail count will probably go up to 100% shortly. The Birdland section serviced by the double is the part of the area with the less severe terrain (although there is still some nosebleed steep stuff in there as well). That section is far less prone to wind scouring than the Summit serviced by the Single. The vast majority of the terrain off the Single is very steep and at the Summit, with the very light dry snow they've been getting, susceptible to scouring. I'll be there Thursday and if the Single isn't running (though I expect it will be) we'll just skin up to access the goods in the steep trees. Best skiing in the East (sorry powderfreak). As for the not being tucked in to the coast as far as I can tell you're alone on that, so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 The latest pressure fall analysis has the greatest falls along the coastline well NW of the current low. 18Z NAM takes this NE, pressure fall analysis will have this developing NW. Pressure falls look east of the Delmarva and then extending nw with the parent low, where they should be. Lows don't necessarily have to gravitate to the strongest pressure falls. All the models had this scraping the coast near 00z, but then the baroclinic zone slowly moves east, as the storm develops and moves north. I do agree NYC could get interesting, but it will be a close call! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Yeah but how is it being under modeled at this hour? The pressure is right around where it was forecast by every single model. Perhaps you didn't see some of the buoys earlier, but at 18Z there were reports of 1012, and at 21 Z 1013. 0Z it is off coast--and no buoys are available now where the low is progged to be. Best I can see now is 1012 but the low already passed through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 snowing already in CT and maybe heading towards the cape? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Pressure falls look east of the Delmarva and then extending nw with the parent low, where the should be. Lows don't necessarily have to gravitate to the strongest pressure falls. All the models had this scraping the coast near 00z, but then the baroclinic zone slowly moves east, as the storm develops and moves north. I do agree NYC could get interesting, but it will be a close call! Yeah it will be interesting watching this develop. NAM takes it NE hereafter--but trends suggest NW if those pressure falls hold steady. DT ejects around 04-06z and the real cyclogenesis develops. If it is still hugging the coast it is all over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralmass Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Some of the folks in other regions were for some reason calling storm cancel on this a few hours ago even though all obs had the coastal far more developed and farther W. Then Henry Margusity opened his big mouth and said some nonsense about the OV low pushing the coastal farther E. Silliness--and pathetic meteorology. Oh yes, this caused quite the uproar for the AccuWx forums, facebook, what have you. Joke. That makes me feel pretty good...as the RUC is almost always too wrapped up west at that time range. I think a band might initially try and setup out there but its going to go to town a little further east. For once, I absolutely love where I am for a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Yeah it will be interesting watching this develop. NAM takes it NE hereafter--but trends suggest NW if those pressure falls hold steady. DT ejects around 04-06z and the real cyclogenesis develops. If it is still hugging the coast it is all over. all over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Yeah it will be interesting watching this develop. NAM takes it NE hereafter--but trends suggest NW if those pressure falls hold steady. DT ejects around 04-06z and the real cyclogenesis develops. If it is still hugging the coast it is all over. Are you from around here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 snowing already in CT and maybe heading towards the cape? Virga here. Now NYC looks to be getting something started for real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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