Kbosch Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 that is a sick band in central pa! The stuff around Philly and in south NJ is what I'm concerned with...and it looks to be coming along great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Winds at the top of the hill in Peru have been calm but are now freshening from the ENE. Just a few hours now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 The stuff around Philly and in south NJ is what I'm concerned with...and it looks to be coming along great. It really does. I'm pumped. ALY's closer to the coast comment is realy geetting me psyched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 NAM sim radar doing very well so far. Not really. Missed the precip/echoes way into Long Island (system is moving along) and was way underdone around Philly. No model did all that well best I can see. If it were possible to do a checklist of good/bad on a 50 point scale the GFS/NAM would be about evenly split. We aren't done with the shifts, 0z will be entertaining. ARW , NMM much better but like I said nothing perfect. MM5 was kind of lacking too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Where the hell is Messenger to throw a wet rag on the fun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 It really does. I'm pumped. ALY's closer to the coast comment is realy geetting me psyched. It looks like it's following the meso models well. Seems on track with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 that stuff building of NJ and DE looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Also starting to see some development in NJ just west of NYC in the last 15 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 that is a sick band in central pa! My old stomping grounds back in the day, central PA mountains, Mifflintown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Also starting to see some development in NJ just west of NYC in the last 15 minutes. Yeah. Look just west of Trenton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Just reviewed the Mesoscale map of temps in SNE. No evidence of a coastal front in SNE outside of the Islands. Looking at Radar and certainly not impressed although the heavier echoes are moving due NE. The low over the Ohio Valley looks quite strong and we're all awaiting the energy transfer. By this point, I'd be expecting lightning strikes by now east of the Delmarva. This thing isn't bombing over the NJ coast continental shelf like the Dec 26, 2010 storm, looks closer to Dec 9, 2005 but 50 miles south and east. I would be worried north of the Mass/ VT line with the exception of S NH. Bombogenesis is happening late and probably just south of E LI and Block Island. I-95 Corridor from New London to Boston jackpots. Coastal front stays over the Cape Cod canal or east. Deformation band to the far NW is always the Wildcard and I'm sure the eastern slopes of the Berkshires, Litchfield Hills, Hillsborough, NH, and York county, Maine do equally well if not better than the coastal plain. This thing is already under modeled. The coastal is being under-forecasted, and the latest pressure falls are up the coast. The low is already W of any model. The way it is already exploding is impressive. The real fireworks don't begin for another 4-6 hours until the dynamic trop reaches the coast. This could very well hug the coast with the 06Z NAM verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 It looks like it's following the meso models well. Seems on track with them. Definitely in both the west and the precip. Good job by them, Tip a few days ago, and all the mets today (nearly every one here) who leaned that way instead of to the globals. Looks like it will go that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Not really. Missed the precip/echoes way into Long Island (system is moving along) and was way underdone around Philly. No model did all that well best I can see. If it were possible to do a checklist of good/bad on a 50 point scale the GFS/NAM would be about evenly split. We aren't done with the shifts, 0z will be entertaining. ARW , NMM much better but like I said nothing perfect. MM5 was kind of lacking too. It nailed the band in PA...as far as underdone around Philly, that can't be a bad thing. System is moving, but it seems to have the sfc low position nailed down pretty well at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Yeah. Look just west of Trenton. Yeap. This is going faster and strong, wow. If you aren't sleeping now and planning to get up early, go to bed...you won't want to in about an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 This thing is already under modeled. The coastal is being under-forecasted, and the latest pressure falls are up the coast. The low is already W of any model. The way it is already exploding is impressive. The real fireworks don't begin for another 4-6 hours until the dynamic trop reaches the coast. This could very well hug the coast with the 06Z NAM verifying. Talk dirty to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 It looks like it's following the meso models well. Seems on track with them. Are you working tomorrow? Hope you're around to offer analysis. I really trust your take on things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 741 pm first lonely flakes have begun, looks like one small band, a break for an hour or so, then the real deal should begin (here) around 9-930 as okx radar is lighting up west and south of new york city. Good luck everyone!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralmass Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 that C PA band is in clear air mode on weather tap, no idea why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 This thing is already under modeled. The coastal is being under-forecasted, and the latest pressure falls are up the coast. The low is already W of any model. The way it is already exploding is impressive. The real fireworks don't begin for another 4-6 hours until the dynamic trop reaches the coast. This could very well hug the coast with the 06Z NAM verifying. For reference... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 741 pm first lonely flakes have begun, looks like one small band, a break for an hour or so, then the real deal should begin (here) around 9-930 as okx radar is lighting up west and south of new york city. Good luck everyone!! band looks to be exploding over your head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Allright weenies..I'm heading to lalalalalalalock it up land to catch some zzzzz's..See ya'll all for the real deal Holyfied biright and early 2:00am ish. Balls deep in snow..balls deep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Allright weenies..I'm heading to lalalalalalalock it up land to catch some zzzzz's..See ya'll all for the real deal Holyfied biright and early 2:00am ish. Balls deep in snow..balls deep Blizz, isn't this better than that torch talk this Summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 She's hugging the coast all right: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Allright weenies..I'm heading to lalalalalalalock it up land to catch some zzzzz's..See ya'll all for the real deal Holyfied biright and early 2:00am ish. Balls deep in snow..balls deep You very well may get destroyed tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Where the hell is Messenger to throw a wet rag on the fun? I've been trying to figure out what the f*** the MRG site is all about. What's going on with the trails being closed or am I on an old page? -- Far as closer to the coast stuff goes...oregon inlet marina is about 1012.7, that's essentially exactly what both the 18z GFS and NAM had per these maps http://tempest.aos.wisc.edu/wxp_images/gfs104_18UTC/gblav_cpres_h006.gif http://tempest.aos.wisc.edu/wxp_images/eta212_18UTC/eta_cprese_h06.gif If anything the NAM was a mb too strong....but inconsequential crap when we're talking about 1012-1013 at this stage, means nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 For reference... The 06Z NAm may very well verify on track if the trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Talk dirty to me. Some of the folks in other regions were for some reason calling storm cancel on this a few hours ago even though all obs had the coastal far more developed and farther W. Then Henry Margusity opened his big mouth and said some nonsense about the OV low pushing the coastal farther E. Silliness--and pathetic meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 You very well may get destroyed tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Are you working tomorrow? Hope you're around to offer analysis. I really trust your take on things. Yeah unfortunately..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 This thing is already under modeled. The coastal is being under-forecasted, and the latest pressure falls are up the coast. The low is already W of any model. The way it is already exploding is impressive. The real fireworks don't begin for another 4-6 hours until the dynamic trop reaches the coast. This could very well hug the coast with the 06Z NAM verifying. How is it under forecast? 18z NAM had it at 1012, 18z GFS had it at 1013. Lowest reported pressure anywhere that I could find at 0z is 1012.7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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