Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Harvey Leonard Snowfall totals... Yeah Harv not buying the eastern QPF maxes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Harvs map loos like the 06z NAM, qualitatively speaking.... 27.0\17 AVG of 3.5" snow depth here. 10-20" sounds reasonable.....I wouldn't expect many spots over 18" with the EURO "only" depicting 1" of qpf. Expectations should be relatively tempered because regardless of what a few runs of the NAM tried to imply, this is no HECS. Enter into this with that mindset and this should be a very enjoyable event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Loving this, Jerry... http://coolwx.com/cg...1118&field=prec We're going to rock tomorrow morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 He's been in office a matter of days and saw what just happened to Bloomberg politically with the Blizzard. I know this guy a bit personally and he has tremendous political instincts. Prepare for a lockdown. State of Emergency is about politics first and weather second. He was mentioning 25 inch+ snow totals He must read American wx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Harvs map loos like the 06 NAM, qualitatively speaking.... 27.0\17 AVG of 3.5" snow depth here. 10-20" sounds reasonable.....I wouldn't expect many spots over 18" with the EURO "only" depicting 1" of qpf. Expectations should be relatively tempered because regardless of what a few runs of the NAM tried to imply, this is no HECS. Enter into this with that mindset and this should be a very enjoyable event. Bingo. This is going to be a hell of an exciting and dynamic MECS....if some people get HECS type totals, all gravy...and that very well may happen, but people just shouldn't expect it to happen in their backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Harvs map loos like the 06 NAM, qualitatively speaking.... 27.0\17 AVG of 3.5" snow depth here. 10-20" sounds reasonable.....I wouldn't expect many spots over 18" with the EURO "only" depicting 1" of qpf. Expectations should be relatively tempered because regardless of what a few runs of the NAM tried to imply, this is no HECS. Enter into this with that mindset and this should be a very enjoyable event. I have my sights set on at least 10''...I expect to get that...if I somehow end up with less than that I may request to be 5 posted for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Harvs map loos like the 06z NAM, qualitatively speaking.... 27.0\17 AVG of 3.5" snow depth here. 10-20" sounds reasonable.....I wouldn't expect many spots over 18" with the EURO "only" depicting 1" of qpf. Expectations should be relatively tempered because regardless of what a few runs of the NAM tried to imply, this is no HECS. Enter into this with that mindset and this should be a very enjoyable event. Agree 100%. Great storm...enjoy it while it's happening. You'll remember it but it won't make the record books for most. But it's going to snow awfully hard and that in itself is fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 RGEM looks very near ACK and then near or just east of elbow. That's a nice track for ern areas, if it happens. Not to be a pest but did it shift any from the last run? Even 10 miles could make a difference at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Gotta go to the store and make sure i get some provisions. Let's see...beer, bread, milk, beer, chips, soup, beer, water, soda, beer, tv dinner, pasta, lunch meat, beer. Did i miss anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Bingo. This is going to be a hell of an exciting and dynamic MECS....if some people get HECS type totals, all gravy...and that very well may happen, but people just shouldn't expect it to happen in their backyard. Will, Where are you thinking for the potential "screw zone"? Or is it too early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Tip, if I may. Any thoughts on Upton's reasoning re blizzard-like vs. blizzard warnings along the CT shore? BZW has about a 70% false alarm rate in the NWS Eastern Region, so no surprise they'd be a little gun shy in a marginal situation like this. Gov Malloy says possible State of emergency could be declared tonite at 8:30 A state of emergency for snow? I don't think we had one in Dec '09 or last month's storm. If you didn't do it for the heavy snow and 60 mph winds we had last month over a longer duration, not sure why they would now. What does it really mean anyway? Release of extra funds for cleanup and police? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin W Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Gotta go to the store and make sure i get some provisions. Let's see...beer, bread, milk, beer, chips, soup, beer, water, soda, beer, tv dinner, pasta, lunch meat, beer. Did i miss anything? Beer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Gotta go to the store and make sure i get some provisions. Let's see...beer, bread, milk, beer, chips, soup, beer, water, soda, beer, tv dinner, pasta, lunch meat, beer. Did i miss anything? That amount of beer will only get you through about 12z...I'd double up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighPressure Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Gotta go to the store and make sure i get some provisions. Let's see...beer, bread, milk, beer, chips, soup, beer, water, soda, beer, tv dinner, pasta, lunch meat, beer. Did i miss anything? Toilet paper! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 He was mentioning 25 inch+ snow totals He must read American wx Or the southern CT WSW text from Upton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Harvs map loos like the 06z NAM, qualitatively speaking.... 27.0\17 AVG of 3.5" snow depth here. 10-20" sounds reasonable.....I wouldn't expect many spots over 18" with the EURO "only" depicting 1" of qpf. Expectations should be relatively tempered because regardless of what a few runs of the NAM tried to imply, this is no HECS. Enter into this with that mindset and this should be a very enjoyable event. Very good post Expect 9", hoping for 14". Fun event slow but steady... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 BZW has about a 70% false alarm rate in the NWS Eastern Region, so no surprise they'd be a little gun shy in a marginal situation like this. A state of emergency for snow? I don't think we had one in Dec '09 or last month's storm. If you didn't do it for the heavy snow and 60 mph winds we had last month over a longer duration, not sure why they would now. What does it really mean anyway? Release of extra funds for cleanup and police? I think it allows them to not permit cars on the road so they can plow. EDIT: in the case of a new governor, it also gives him the ailbity to have the enitre state thank him for a forced day off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Gotta go to the store and make sure i get some provisions. Let's see...beer, bread, milk, beer, chips, soup, beer, water, soda, beer, tv dinner, pasta, lunch meat, beer. Did i miss anything? Beer. Don't forget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I have my sights set on at least 10''...I expect to get that...if I somehow end up with less than that I may request to be 5 posted for a few days. Here is my strategy; we are all going to be running on fumes and will ultimately grow very irritable and prone to "episodes" at the very thought of subsidence (except for Will "The Robot" Shwartz), so I'd suggest just crashing if you reach that point.....I've made a pleDge to not contribute to a shi** show the likes of what the Boxing day thread devolved into, ever again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It's funny seeing people trying to hide their excitment for this by pretending to be conservative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hey freaks...wow what day of sneaking model peeks from a trip I was on...trending grt for all it seems...even cc at least gets frontend blizzdump. Just glad I don't have to get up at 3 cuz. The heavies start at daybreak up here. Shoutouts to all specially my nnebros representin. At the gym checkin between sets this time scott. HOW MUCH FUH WEBSTAH?. Nevah mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Gotta go to the store and make sure i get some provisions. Let's see...beer, bread, milk, beer, chips, soup, beer, water, soda, beer, tv dinner, pasta, lunch meat, beer. Did i miss anything? Beef jerky. And you'd better pick up some extra beer just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think it allows them to not permit cars on the road so they can plow. EDIT: in the case of a new governor, it also gives him the ailbity to have the enitre state thank him for a forced day off. Oh really is that what it's for? Had no idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Will, Where are you thinking for the potential "screw zone"? Or is it too early? Right, and I mean right, over MHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah Harv not buying the eastern QPF maxes... It looks like my overall thinking, but you can't really nail down mesoscale stuff. 00z might be able to help out with some of those details, but like Mike and others have said...very strange things can happen when mesoscale processes go through the roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Here is my strategy; we are all going to be running on fumes and will ultimately grow very irritable and prone to "episodes" at the very thought of subsidence (except for Will "The Robot" Shwartz), so I'd suggest just crashing if you reach that point.....I've made a pleDge to not contribute to a shi** show the likes of what the Boxing day thread devolved into, ever again. The problem is (for us in the Boston metro area), you can go to bed, get up around 6, and watch the show unfold. If it fails...fook it ...go back to sleep as you say. But the timing is just about perfect for this event in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I bought toilet paper today... Plenty of beer on hand... Sons school cancelled, waiting for two others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Very good post Expect 9", hoping for 14". Fun event slow but steady... I'm very happy wiht my 12-16" warning. Interstinglly, Franklin County and the SW NH counties have a warning separate from (at least) the other counties in the BOX CWA. But, both have 12-16". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 quote name='40/70 Benchmark' timestamp='1294783841' post='273604'] Harvs map loos like the 06z NAM, qualitatively speaking.... 27.0\17 AVG of 3.5" snow depth here. 10-20" sounds reasonable.....I wouldn't expect many spots over 18" with the EURO "only" depicting 1" of qpf. Expectations should be relatively tempered because regardless of what a few runs of the NAM tried to imply, this is no HECS. Enter into this with that mindset and this should be a very enjoyable event. Yet again we're in agreement. I think if we started with a base of 6-12 or 7-14 for almost everyone aside of the extreme coast/cape cod that's a good start. There could be a band of 10-20 in there too. The cape and pym southern Bristol is a tough call. -- This is going to be a good test of the RUC. It's already elongating at 500 by 9h which pushes the 540/546 lower vs earlier runs (3 hours ago). The RUC is left of all the other guidance/NAMish but lets see if that is changing. Also hints that at 0z even the late models would have focused a little too much on vorticity coming NE and held it back west/east...but not buying that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'm really tempted to pull an allnighter-but since Ive been sick I dont want to fall asleep at like 8 ot 9am during the highlight of the storm LOL. So hopefully I can pull off some sleep from 9-130 or so... BTW Todd Gutner has an even wider jackpot covering almost all of ct and ma except for far western sections. Jackpot is 12-16" rather then 12-18" on Harveys map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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