BrokenASOS Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I want everyone in bed asleep by 8:00 and up by 2:00-3:00 AM Haha. Agreed. My family is going to try and snag a bite of breakfast around 930am in Portland... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS so far holds. I've seen it. It's not going to go that far west. It sees somthing the NAM doesn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 wrf wtf clown map 5" screwzone for me lol... I'm under a tiny dot of cyan, so your five inches is like twice what I'll be getting here. I think I'll take the plow off the truck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Well I'd say NAM is way overjuiced qpf wise but it may have a good idea of low track adjusted (nodded) about 10 miles east to come into synch with other guidance. Big one on the way. Euro I suppose is the way to go and that was a beautiful hit for most. Yeah, it's a real close call. I have no access to the Euro beyond PSU which I never really use. But looking at the NAM/GFS it's very much the same at 18h they've come totally together. The GFS still won't spin up that vorticity and as a result it;s east with the QPF. Go with the EURO like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 unfortunately not with the QPF Don't care...it's clearly a POS model. Ride the Euro and the SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 They had that purple/magenta colored stuff in the grey and the grey covered up here... I think I was lowered by an inch or 2... NBD... NAM will prevail An inch or two difference in a forecast is negligible at this point given the totals we are expecting for ORH county...its going to be a nowcast thing. We could end up with 10-12" or end up with 18-20"...we really won't have many clues as to which until the storm is underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I want everyone in bed asleep by 8:00 and up by 2:00-3:00 AM I"ll be in bed right after the Bruins game and will probably wake up around 1:30-2:00 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I want everyone in bed asleep by 8:00 and up by 2:00-3:00 AM lol.... I'm going to bed early but after I see NAM/RGEM/GFS/UKMET. The good news....I'm 64 years old...and feel I can give myself tomorrow to enjoy the snow. Alternative arrangements have been made and I'll be home with my daughter who needs child care anyway. Me FTW. Even if the storm duds, I'm home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS so far holds. I've seen it. It's not going to go that far west. It sees somthing the NAM doesn't Every single model we have is in the same basic agreement right now, I think even the RGEM is right over ACK/up through the elbow. The NAM is kind of alone I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 unfortunately not with the QPF Actually they did. You're an inch or more in Burlington,MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Certainly not the NAM QPF but the GFS QPF is still pretty damn good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Every single model we have is in the same basic agreement right now, I think even the RGEM is right over ACK/up through the elbow. The NAM is kind of alone I think. Don't worry, I'm with ya. I believe ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 triple bunner to whoever has been measuring there!!! Is StephenCT at the Air National Guard Windsor Locks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It even tries to dryslot EEN...WTF? Trashcan. At least the track is more in agreement now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Every single model we have is in the same basic agreement right now, I think even the RGEM is right over ACK/up through the elbow. The NAM is kind of alone I think. Yeah...Mt. Holly an hour ago, but yeah..... .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...-- Changed Discussion --THE NAM INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE GFS OR THE ECMWF WITH THE TROF OVER THE SE THAT IS SHARPER THAN THE LATTER MODELS HAVE. THE WALLOPS 1C WARMER TEMPS AT 850MB ARE NOT EXTENDING THAT FAR INLAND AS APG AND IAD 850MB TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW -4C AND MODEL INITIALIZATION IS TOO WARM THERE. BASED ON THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS THE WRF-NMM AND CAN RGEM ARE VERIFYING THE BEST, THE LOW IS TUCKED INTO THE COAST MUCH CLOSER THAN EITHER THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE. THIS IS BASED ON CARGO SHIP WDD3825 OBSERVATION. THANK-YOU OPC FOR THE INFORMATION ON THAT MOVING BUOY. THUS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE LEANING MORE TOWARD THE HI RES MODELS WAYS THAN THE HEMISPHERIC ONES. OF COURSE EVEN LEANING IN THAT DIRECTION DOES NOT MEAN THAT THEIR PCPN PROCESSES (QPF) WILL COME TO FRUITION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 lol.... I'm going to bed early but after I see NAM/RGEM/GFS/UKMET. The good news....I'm 64 years old...and feel I can give myself tomorrow to enjoy the snow. Alternative arrangements have been made and I'll be home with my daughter who needs child care anyway. Me FTW. Even if the storm duds, I'm home. Enjoy the storm, Jerry. Hopefully, BOS will experience blizzard conditions at the height of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Closes off at 700 right over the Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin W Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I want everyone in bed asleep by 8:00 and up by 2:00-3:00 AM No problem here. I'll be up by 1:00. Chucken em'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS tucks the heavier QPF a bit west still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 im sleeping 9 to 1 i dont want to miss anything! I"ll be in bed right after the Bruins game and will probably wake up around 1:30-2:00 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Enjoy the storm, Jerry. Hopefully, BOS will experience blizzard conditions at the height of the storm. Thanks Don! Big winter in NYC as well...enjoy this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Actually they did. You're an inch or more in Burlington,MA. yeah, you are right, moved the 1" line further west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 im sleeping 9 to 1 i dont want to miss anything! I think I can get away with sleeping until about 5-6 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 No problem here. I'll be up by 1:00. Chucken em'. kids won't let me get to bed that early, but after the 0z nam is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Tip, if I may. Any thoughts on Upton's reasoning re blizzard-like vs. blizzard warnings along the CT shore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 From ALY's latest. Nice to see. HEADLINES WILL REMAIN IN TACT FOR NOW...BUT STAY TUNED FROM SARATOGA THROUGH GLENS FALLS AND WASHINGTON COUNTY. AVOIDING KNEE JERK CHANGES JUST A FEW HOURS AFTER ADVISORY ISSUED...EVEN THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE AND TRENDS IN DATA SUGGEST POSSIBLY CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA. HEADLINES ARE AN AFTERTHOUGHT...THOUGH...AS 4-8" PREDICTION NOW...POSSIBLY UPGRADING TO 5-10" OR 6-12" LATER...IS STILL A VERY SIMILAR SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT. SO... AGAIN...MAY OR MAY NOT NEED TO UPGRADE HEADLINE FROM SARATOGA THROUGH GLENS FALLS AND WASHINGTON COUNTY...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON NEWER DATA/GUIDANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS tucks the heavier QPF a bit west still That it does 12z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 At least back here it's nice to see the GFS tuck QPF back west 18 hours before the height of the storm. I think given the amount of forcing we're looking at the GFS is too weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Shock and ARW: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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