HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 My best snowstorm memories were up on Winter Hill. Mainly the blizzard of December 1992 when we got close to 36" in just over 24 hours. Glad to be on the boards here, already learning quite alot from you guys. You will like ORH Wxman a lot... ...and you won't learn a thing from me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Unlike the "blizzard" a couple of weeks ago, I really don't think we'll see 2 separate maximums this time around. I think there will be one centralized mega band that will smoke someone with 3 to 5 inch per hour rates. Areas to the east of it will dryslot and have some precip type problems, while areas to the west will miss out on the best forcing. FWIW, RUC looks to be west of the 18z NAM. Not sure I'd trust it with its less than stellar performance with the storm a couple of weeks ago. Max will probably run in a PSM, LWM, ORH, BDL, to BDR line with 20 to 25 inches. I could see someone topping out close to 30" somewhere in here. Thank you, may I have another...seriously, thanks for your input. If we do end up near there we will have had well over 40 inches of snow in 17 days. That is beyond even the wildest weenie imaginations for coastal Connecticut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What are people thinking in terms of the BED area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 wrf wtf clown map 5" screwzone for me Hey! Don't complain. Even the ocean to my south gets more than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 BASED ON THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND EXPECTED WIND...WE HAVE ORGANIZED HEADLINES THUSLY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND HIGH WIND WARNING FOR NANTUCKET. BLIZZARD WARNING FOR CAPE/VINEYARD/EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS. THE NANTUCKET COMBINATION MAY BE A BETTER DESCRIPTOR FOR THE OUTER CAPE BUT THE EFFECTS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ZONE ARE MORE SIGNIFICANT.-- End Changed Discussion -- Excellent call by KTAN, IMO. It's going to be a squeaker for Phil and I, but it's not worth the chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Tip FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Excellent call by KTAN, IMO. It's going to be a squeaker for Phil and I, but it's not worth the chance. i think the dividing line is literally right near MBY...east of me i think it's sorta meh...from my area west...totally different conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Unlike the "blizzard" a couple of weeks ago, I really don't think we'll see 2 separate maximums this time around. I think there will be one centralized mega band that will smoke someone with 3 to 5 inch per hour rates. Areas to the east of it will dryslot and have some precip type problems, while areas to the west will miss out on the best forcing. FWIW, RUC looks to be west of the 18z NAM. Not sure I'd trust it with its less than stellar performance with the storm a couple of weeks ago. Max will probably run in a PSM, LWM, ORH, BDL, to BDR line with 20 to 25 inches. I could see someone topping out close to 30" somewhere in here. Disagree. While the area between the two maxima won't be as significantly lower, I believe we'll likely see two distinct jackpots: One in central CT with the thunderstorm complex that works northward in the early morning, and the other in eastern MA with the intense CCB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Maps are updated on BOX. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 KTAN went with a Blizzard Warning for the immediate coast... that's DEFINITELY understandable... My hunch is they will - also - need to work that inland a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lurker Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 BOX update: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 blizzard warnings!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 wrf wtf clown map 5" screwzone for me I think we found ourselves a winner! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 How often do you see more than one event prompt blizzard warnings here? How many do we average per winter...1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 looks like my side of Burlington ( south of 128) is under blizzard warning but other side is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS coming out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ursa99 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Pete B. Ch7 Snow Totals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Let's hope the OP GFS comes west and we get very good consensus.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What, am I missing something? I thought we where going to change to rain on the south shore and the coast why the Blizzard warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Back from an all day conference where only my little phone worked. WOW....JUST F U KN WOW! Still worried about underperformance from the snow number flags but everyone (models...all) ramped up so much it's hard to ignore. Big one on the way....Winter of 2010-11 rocks on AWT since the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 BOX Point n click has lowered snow IMBY from 12-18 to 8-14 oh well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 What, am I missing something? I thought we where going to change to rain on the south shore and the coast why the Blizzard warning? Because even if some areas briefly mix to rain, there may still be blizzard conditions with snow falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS adjusted west with the SLP at 0/6 to better fit reality. As everyone thought AET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighPressure Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Upton's take on "blizzard warnings" THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING...AND SHOULD NOT COINCIDE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. AS SUCH...NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA...BUT DO NOT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE MET TO UPGRADE TO BLIZZARD WARNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Because even if some areas briefly mix to rain, there may still be blizzard conditions with snow falling. How do you think we'll do in Boston/Brookline? I'm figuring 8-14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ursa99 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 420 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2011 ...WINTER STORM CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... MAZ007-014>016-018-019-021-120530- /O.CAN.KBOX.WS.W.0004.110112T0500Z-110113T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KBOX.BZ.W.0001.110112T0700Z-110113T0100Z/ EASTERN ESSEX MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA- EASTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA- SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GLOUCESTER...CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON... QUINCY...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...MATTAPOISETT 420 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2011 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. * LOCATIONS...THE EAST COAST MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BOSTON AND INTERIOR PLYMOUTH COUNTY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...12 TO 16 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...SNOW WILL START BY MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ZONES...THEN OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOW WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH HEAVY SNOW TO CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES. * WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Maps are updated on BOX. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/ Hey, I lost an inch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 How do you think we'll do in Boston/Brookline? I'm figuring 8-14. Yeah that looks good. You may do better than me by a couple of inches. The wild card is the DS, and low track. If it tracks near ACK, then we may have more low level forcing helping to enhance precip. You can see this by looking at the NAM QPF. If it is east of the NAM, then a foot will be likely and probably more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Sick stuff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 BOX def siding with the Eastern GFS..while OKX takes the NAM..I know which one most of us would take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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