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January 11-12 Snowstorm Disco


Baroclinic Zone

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We'll see in the end. As I've said before, 70% in the NAM camp is where I think this ends up which would get me about 16-18" (major, but not historic, but more than the 10-12" that the GFS/Euro gives me. I think it would be a big mistake to 100% discount the NAM like some may be doing.

I'm not discounting the NAM. I think the idea it has of an epic band of snow is right, I just think it's in the wrong spot. Leesun I can't predict the future...but I don't trust it because I just got burned on a 4-8" lock at 12 and even 6 hours on that model. When I see it showing the same slippage (but again NE not E like last time) it makes me scratch my head.

In the end last weekend ALL models slipped E in time. The NAM/RGEM were just the most extreme as they were the two that went the most nuts.

Look at the QPF from last nights GFS for the areas down in the M/A and compare it to the 12z...slipped NE.

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It should gradually get better for you up there each run. The difference with this little dance this time won't be east/miss, the escape route is just a delayed jump so it ends up north. I'd totally expect it to keep trending in your favor especially in eastern 1/2 of NNE. Just loop through any QPF output from any model the last few days and you can see the gradual sweep from sw to ne

Thanks messenger - and congrats to SNE! :snowman:

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Then there's the all-enlightening 250PM AFD from GYX - they are incapable of independent thought:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME

250 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2011

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE NEW MODEL RUNS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.

GFS STILL SHOWING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF QPF WITH THE UPCOMING STORM

WHILE LAST NIGHTS ECMWF TRENDED TOWARD THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SEEN IN

THE NAM. HPC SEEMS TO HAVE A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN ALL MODELS

AND HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THAT GUIDANCE FOR SNOW FALL AMOUNTS IN

THE WARNING AND ADVISORY AREAS.

SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN TIMING OR AMOUNTS FROM THIS MORNINGS FORECAST

SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

EXPECT SNOW TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND EXTREME

SOUTHWEST MAINE BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z... OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER

OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT

ACCUMULATIONS BY DAYBREAK IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE MAINLY IN

SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MAINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE TAKES A RIGHT TURN AT CAPE COD ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL

HEAD EAST...SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY. SNOW WILL

INTENSIFY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL MAINE THROUGH

LATE MORNING AND WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES AS SOME BANDING

DEVELOPS IN THIS AREA. APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL

OCCUR FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF

DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. STILL GENERALLY LOOKING FOR STORM

TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND

DRIFTING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

I wish they'd start appending their names to the end of the AFDs like most other offices seem to do. I've actually had a chance to meet a lot of the mets over there and they (obviously) seem like they know what they're doing, although I will admit, coming from DC when Rogowski used to be there--it's a bit of a change to see less technical and thoughtful write ups.

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Like my earlier post. 100% discounting the NAM. That forecast is riding the GFS. Don't get it,

BTW, compare even the 18z NAM for 21z http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false

With actual conditions

Where is the comma head it was beginning to develop already east of NC?

http://radar.weather...id=akq&loop=yes

EDIT: Again..thoughts out loud Leesun...just keep that in mind. The next 3-4 hours we'll get a much better feel for the low.

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We got about 16" in Middletown. A very good storm, but it was excruciating watching the mega band camp out just a few miles to our west and drop 28". Dec 19th 2009 was the opposite; we got about 6 inches and towns less than 10 miles east got 20 inches. I wonder if we'll get in on the band this time around.

yeah you live and die by those bands with these EC megastorms

up here, when we get a big storm, we get pretty uniform totals that are close to qpf modeled usually

but for me, thats also the excitement of these coastals......yeah, you could get screwed, but also could be a big winner.

not nearly as exciting knowing the snow will fall as predicted, lol.

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My very first post here, I live up in the Worcester hills and feeling good about this storm.

Anyways, I've noticed talk elsewhere regarding the Low over the Ohio Valley being stronger than modeled and this possibly throwing a monkey wrench into our big storm chances. You guys clearly know your stuff, anyone seriously concerned about this?

Welcome! What town?

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does anyone know if walt drag is still at the NWS Taunton (sorry for misspelling), his technical discussions were incredible. Also the 3:51PM Taunton update is in, they upped the totals a bit based on the point forecast. I need to check the more reliable human zone forecasts and hopefully a discussion will be up soon.

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does anyone know if walt drag is still at the NWS Taunton (sorry for misspelling), his technical discussions were incredible. Also the 3:51PM Taunton update is in, they upped the totals a bit based on the point forecast. I need to check the more reliable human zone forecasts and hopefully a discussion will be up soon.

I think he might be in WFO Mount Holly now...I swear I saw his near a NJ weather article recently.

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BTW, compare even the 18z NAM for 21z http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false

With actual conditions

Where is the comma head it was beginning to develop already east of NC?

http://radar.weather...id=akq&loop=yes

EDIT: Again..thoughts out loud Leesun...just keep that in mind. The next 3-4 hours we'll get a much better feel for the low.

I think you can see it a bit on the WV loop.

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BOX just came out...

THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TOTALS EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CT

THROUGH THE BOSTON METRO SOUTHWEST...WITH MOST OF OUR AREA AT

10-17 INCHES. MIXING WITH RAIN WILL LIMIT AMOUNTS OVER THE CAPE

AND ISLANDS. EVEN SO...THE UPPER CAPE AND MUCH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD

SHOULD GET MORE THAN 6 INCHES. NANTUCKET LOOKS CLOSER TO 3-4

INCHES.

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In the city of Worcester itself. I grew up 1,000' up on Winter Hill near Holden and now am about 700' up near Airport Hill. This looks to be a classic setup for the Worcester hills to get pummeled.

There is some met on here who knows Winter Hill... not sure who he is.

This is going to be epic. 12-18" for you

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Unlike the "blizzard" a couple of weeks ago, I really don't think we'll see 2 separate maximums this time around. I think there will be one centralized mega band that will smoke someone with 3 to 5 inch per hour rates. Areas to the east of it will dryslot and have some precip type problems, while areas to the west will miss out on the best forcing. FWIW, RUC looks to be west of the 18z NAM. Not sure I'd trust it with its less than stellar performance with the storm a couple of weeks ago. Max will probably run in a PSM, LWM, ORH, BDL, to BDR line with 20 to 25 inches. I could see someone topping out close to 30" somewhere in here.

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There is some met on here who knows Winter Hill... not sure who he is.

This is going to be epic. 12-18" for you

My best snowstorm memories were up on Winter Hill. Mainly the blizzard of December 1992 when we got close to 36" in just over 24 hours.

Glad to be on the boards here, already learning quite alot from you guys.

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did box go with blizzard warnings?

BASED ON THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND EXPECTED WIND...WE HAVE

ORGANIZED HEADLINES THUSLY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND HIGH WIND

WARNING FOR NANTUCKET. BLIZZARD WARNING FOR CAPE/VINEYARD/EAST

COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS. THE NANTUCKET COMBINATION MAY BE A BETTER

DESCRIPTOR FOR THE OUTER CAPE BUT THE EFFECTS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF

THE ZONE ARE MORE SIGNIFICANT.-- End Changed Discussion --

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