Organizing Low Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Too bad it was all virtually gone within the blink of an eye i know that was awful feb 06 had the totals but not the impact goes to show that snowstorms are more than just about the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 We'll see in the end. As I've said before, 70% in the NAM camp is where I think this ends up which would get me about 16-18" (major, but not historic, but more than the 10-12" that the GFS/Euro gives me. I think it would be a big mistake to 100% discount the NAM like some may be doing. I'm not discounting the NAM. I think the idea it has of an epic band of snow is right, I just think it's in the wrong spot. Leesun I can't predict the future...but I don't trust it because I just got burned on a 4-8" lock at 12 and even 6 hours on that model. When I see it showing the same slippage (but again NE not E like last time) it makes me scratch my head. In the end last weekend ALL models slipped E in time. The NAM/RGEM were just the most extreme as they were the two that went the most nuts. Look at the QPF from last nights GFS for the areas down in the M/A and compare it to the 12z...slipped NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jack Suslak Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Noyes just said large area 12-20 from Central New England to the South Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS had some pretty awesome snow ratios so while QPF may not be particularly high it's made up for by the higher ratios. Did not realize that, but I still don't think it's fair to say they just ripped the GFS for that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toller65 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It should gradually get better for you up there each run. The difference with this little dance this time won't be east/miss, the escape route is just a delayed jump so it ends up north. I'd totally expect it to keep trending in your favor especially in eastern 1/2 of NNE. Just loop through any QPF output from any model the last few days and you can see the gradual sweep from sw to ne Thanks messenger - and congrats to SNE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrokenASOS Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Then there's the all-enlightening 250PM AFD from GYX - they are incapable of independent thought: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 250 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2011 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE NEW MODEL RUNS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. GFS STILL SHOWING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF QPF WITH THE UPCOMING STORM WHILE LAST NIGHTS ECMWF TRENDED TOWARD THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SEEN IN THE NAM. HPC SEEMS TO HAVE A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN ALL MODELS AND HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THAT GUIDANCE FOR SNOW FALL AMOUNTS IN THE WARNING AND ADVISORY AREAS. SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN TIMING OR AMOUNTS FROM THIS MORNINGS FORECAST SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. EXPECT SNOW TO PUSH INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MAINE BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z... OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS BY DAYBREAK IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE MAINLY IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MAINE. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE TAKES A RIGHT TURN AT CAPE COD ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL HEAD EAST...SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THE DAY. SNOW WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL MAINE THROUGH LATE MORNING AND WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES AS SOME BANDING DEVELOPS IN THIS AREA. APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. STILL GENERALLY LOOKING FOR STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I wish they'd start appending their names to the end of the AFDs like most other offices seem to do. I've actually had a chance to meet a lot of the mets over there and they (obviously) seem like they know what they're doing, although I will admit, coming from DC when Rogowski used to be there--it's a bit of a change to see less technical and thoughtful write ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Like my earlier post. 100% discounting the NAM. That forecast is riding the GFS. Don't get it, BTW, compare even the 18z NAM for 21z http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false With actual conditions Where is the comma head it was beginning to develop already east of NC? http://radar.weather...id=akq&loop=yes EDIT: Again..thoughts out loud Leesun...just keep that in mind. The next 3-4 hours we'll get a much better feel for the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 We got about 16" in Middletown. A very good storm, but it was excruciating watching the mega band camp out just a few miles to our west and drop 28". Dec 19th 2009 was the opposite; we got about 6 inches and towns less than 10 miles east got 20 inches. I wonder if we'll get in on the band this time around. yeah you live and die by those bands with these EC megastorms up here, when we get a big storm, we get pretty uniform totals that are close to qpf modeled usually but for me, thats also the excitement of these coastals......yeah, you could get screwed, but also could be a big winner. not nearly as exciting knowing the snow will fall as predicted, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 My very first post here, I live up in the Worcester hills and feeling good about this storm. Anyways, I've noticed talk elsewhere regarding the Low over the Ohio Valley being stronger than modeled and this possibly throwing a monkey wrench into our big storm chances. You guys clearly know your stuff, anyone seriously concerned about this? Welcome! What town? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattdWX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 does anyone know if walt drag is still at the NWS Taunton (sorry for misspelling), his technical discussions were incredible. Also the 3:51PM Taunton update is in, they upped the totals a bit based on the point forecast. I need to check the more reliable human zone forecasts and hopefully a discussion will be up soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteOut56 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Welcome! What town? In the city of Worcester itself. I grew up 1,000' up on Winter Hill near Holden and now am about 700' up near Airport Hill. This looks to be a classic setup for the Worcester hills to get pummeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrokenASOS Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 does anyone know if walt drag is still at the NWS Taunton (sorry for misspelling), his technical discussions were incredible. Also the 3:51PM Taunton update is in, they upped the totals a bit based on the point forecast. I need to check the more reliable human zone forecasts and hopefully a discussion will be up soon. I think he might be in WFO Mount Holly now...I swear I saw his near a NJ weather article recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 wrf wtf clown map 5" screwzone for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 BTW, compare even the 18z NAM for 21z http://www.twisterda...e&archive=false With actual conditions Where is the comma head it was beginning to develop already east of NC? http://radar.weather...id=akq&loop=yes EDIT: Again..thoughts out loud Leesun...just keep that in mind. The next 3-4 hours we'll get a much better feel for the low. I think you can see it a bit on the WV loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 RGEM has the max qpf just a little nw of the GEFS 12z at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinghamBoss Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 BOX just came out... THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TOTALS EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CT THROUGH THE BOSTON METRO SOUTHWEST...WITH MOST OF OUR AREA AT 10-17 INCHES. MIXING WITH RAIN WILL LIMIT AMOUNTS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. EVEN SO...THE UPPER CAPE AND MUCH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD SHOULD GET MORE THAN 6 INCHES. NANTUCKET LOOKS CLOSER TO 3-4 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 In the city of Worcester itself. I grew up 1,000' up on Winter Hill near Holden and now am about 700' up near Airport Hill. This looks to be a classic setup for the Worcester hills to get pummeled. There is some met on here who knows Winter Hill... not sure who he is. This is going to be epic. 12-18" for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think he might be in WFO Mount Holly now...I swear I saw his near a NJ weather article recently. Yeah, he is. There was much sadness in the BOX CWA when he and Ekster moved along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Blizzard Warning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Unlike the "blizzard" a couple of weeks ago, I really don't think we'll see 2 separate maximums this time around. I think there will be one centralized mega band that will smoke someone with 3 to 5 inch per hour rates. Areas to the east of it will dryslot and have some precip type problems, while areas to the west will miss out on the best forcing. FWIW, RUC looks to be west of the 18z NAM. Not sure I'd trust it with its less than stellar performance with the storm a couple of weeks ago. Max will probably run in a PSM, LWM, ORH, BDL, to BDR line with 20 to 25 inches. I could see someone topping out close to 30" somewhere in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GYX members ... update to p/c ... upgrade in totals. Thanks! A little better. Still may go up more overnight depending on what models holds serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think he might be in WFO Mount Holly now...I swear I saw his near a NJ weather article recently. Yes he is there, and occasionally is on here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 did box go with blizzard warnings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattdWX Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Its not up yet but YES they are putting them up for E MA and parts of the Cape!!!!! did box go with blizzard warnings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 looks like it may start snowing in the berks by like 9pm or so based on extrapolated radar.....i could see snow breaking out over NW CT ...W MA AND spreading ENE as far as the monads ahead of the eastern SNE crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteOut56 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 There is some met on here who knows Winter Hill... not sure who he is. This is going to be epic. 12-18" for you My best snowstorm memories were up on Winter Hill. Mainly the blizzard of December 1992 when we got close to 36" in just over 24 hours. Glad to be on the boards here, already learning quite alot from you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 RGEM looks like it shoots N right into the GOM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 did box go with blizzard warnings? Not on the map - but the discussion indicates they did for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I'll put the over/under in MBY at 15"...with a 15% chance of reaching 20" and a 10% chance of seeing less than 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinghamBoss Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 did box go with blizzard warnings? BASED ON THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND EXPECTED WIND...WE HAVE ORGANIZED HEADLINES THUSLY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND HIGH WIND WARNING FOR NANTUCKET. BLIZZARD WARNING FOR CAPE/VINEYARD/EAST COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS. THE NANTUCKET COMBINATION MAY BE A BETTER DESCRIPTOR FOR THE OUTER CAPE BUT THE EFFECTS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ZONE ARE MORE SIGNIFICANT.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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