The Pattern beyond Jan 12

[weatherwiz]

you guys have had enough snow. hopefully this season finishes up like 05-06.

edit: oh wait it snowed a lot in feb 06

Feb '06 is in my mind forever.

[mahk_webstah]

Marko this is a Markova special

one round of beers on me if that happens..... you hear that? one round of beers on me at the GTG if I get more than 12 from the Mon-Tues storm next week.

[WeatherX]

I don't see any reason based on the NAM why most of SNE wouldn't see at least advisory level snow early next week....

[mahk_webstah]

Jerry I have the radarscope app for iPad, amazing, I digress, anyway it gives the warnings for the country. I have seen flash flood warnings for Hawaii many times days prior to our prolific storms, they has a bunch yesterday. You remember the old met saying about Hawaii, pressure?

trough drops in ne of hawaii....good for us

[mahk_webstah]

Looks like overruning precip begins last Monday night? I may not be able to depart Tuesday...lol...

God I hope you were smart enough to get as late a flight as possible Tuesday and route it through a cold city.

Edit: I'm sure you were smart enough

[weatherwiz]

I don't see any reason based on the NAM why most of SNE wouldn't see at least advisory level snow early next week....

I sort of agree, I think we'll see the models start showing a more colder solution as we get closer but we'll see.

[rivers]

whats the situation with the mon- tue event on the conn shore.I wasnt paying attention thinking it was a rain/mix event,but on uptons site has snow now for mon-tue

[WeatherX]

I sort of agree, I think we'll see the models start showing a more colder solution as we get closer but we'll see.

I think the cutter is off the table at this point.....triple point? Yes, perhaps better than that though. This arctic airmass is charging into the midwest with spillover into the east....

[eekuasepinniW]

Posted this in the main forum but figured it belongs here too.

Enjoy this nice long radar loop from the storm. Click to download. It's 15.7mb, so refrain from embedding in threads.

http://models.americanwx.com/radar_archive/Jan-11-2011.gif

[WeatherX]

And for Kevin....Euro weeklies say no mercy at all, full on -EPO discharge of cold through Feb......awesome depiction....

[weatherwiz]

I think the cutter is off the table at this point.....triple point? Yes, perhaps better than that though. This arctic airmass is charging into the midwest with spillover into the east....

I think alot will depend on when the system begins closing off, it it does so too early than it's likely a cutter, but if it can close off further east, or later than we have a shot.

What happens is we don't see much digging at all, so instead of the trough going negatively tilted in the deep south it does so in the OV region so we see rapid strengthening occur there and the system is already closing off over IN or so...if that occurs it's def a cutter with a bit of snow on the front end then ice then rain.

[radarman]

Posted this in the main forum but figured it belongs here too.

Enjoy this nice long radar loop from the storm. Click to download. It's 15.7mb, so refrain from embedding in threads.

http://models.americ...Jan-11-2011.gif

Thanks for posting. Amazing.

[mahk_webstah]

nighty night...I'll be up early to see my nice snowy pattern on the euro and the gfs to trend a bit more se.

[WeatherX]

I think alot will depend on when the system begins closing off, it it does so too early than it's likely a cutter, but if it can close off further east, or later than we have a shot.

What happens is we don't see much digging at all, so instead of the trough going negatively tilted in the deep south it does so in the OV region so we see rapid strengthening occur there and the system is already closing off over IN or so...if that occurs it's def a cutter with a bit of snow on the front end then ice then rain.

I think that scenario is worst case......even then not so bad......Euro and Euro Ensembles not buying the western track are telling I think..we'll see

[weatherwiz]

I think that scenario is worst case......even then not so bad......Euro and Euro Ensembles not buying the western track are telling I think..we'll see

Yeah and this is why I am rather hesitant to think we will see a western track...usually we see the GFS the more eastern scenario with the Euro +ensembles as cutters but in this case it's the opposite.

Despite what happens with this event I am very optimistic about the preceding pattern, it continues to look very active and I do think we will see plenty of snow chances the remainder of the month.

This setup though really screams freezing rain potential though, at least for parts of the interior...this is going to be one messy system.

[Ginx snewx]

whats the situation with the mon- tue event on the conn shore.I wasnt paying attention thinking it was a rain/mix event,but on uptons site has snow now for mon-tue

2011 COT

[weathafella]

God I hope you were smart enough to get as late a flight as possible Tuesday and route it through a cold city.

Edit: I'm sure you were smart enough

I do nonstops whenever possible and no...flight at 8:40 AM. Truthfully, I would prefer to get there, get the business out of the way, and come back Thursday night. If I miss a nice front end dump...so be it. A KU it will not be.Flight is from BOS-TPA.

[WeatherX]

Yeah and this is why I am rather hesitant to think we will see a western track...usually we see the GFS the more eastern scenario with the Euro +ensembles as cutters but in this case it's the opposite.

Despite what happens with this event I am very optimistic about the preceding pattern, it continues to look very active and I do think we will see plenty of snow chances the remainder of the month.

This setup though really screams freezing rain potential though, at least for parts of the interior...this is going to be one messy system.

Yeah, after this it appears we get a shot of arctic cold. And a building -EPO and favorable PNA....good times look to continue......

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah and this is why I am rather hesitant to think we will see a western track...usually we see the GFS the more eastern scenario with the Euro +ensembles as cutters but in this case it's the opposite.

Despite what happens with this event I am very optimistic about the preceding pattern, it continues to look very active and I do think we will see plenty of snow chances the remainder of the month.

This setup though really screams freezing rain potential though, at least for parts of the interior...this is going to be one messy system.

I said last week, ice was in our future but now thinking thump snow,drizzle, dry slot, cold front then bundle up for the next three weeks with clipper city. Then comes the Feb snow biweekly, seriously now if we avoid a GFS total rain we might be looking at some record depths.

[weatherwiz]

Yeah, after this it appears we get a shot of arctic cold. And a building -EPO and favorable PNA....good times look to continue......

I know I was portraying a horrible winter for SNE but I am throwing that out the window, if people want to jump on my back for saying it would be awful please do so, I don't mind at all. I really think we could end up seeing a top 10 winter for some locations in SNE. I know BDL's seasonal total is inflated with the past few storms but until it's fixed (if it is ever) we have to go by what we have, and were not that far from a top 10 winter really...I really think we can do it here.

[weatherwiz]

I said last week, ice was in our future but now thinking thump snow,drizzle, dry slot, cold front then bundle up for the next three weeks with clipper city. Then comes the Feb snow biweekly, seriously now if we avoid a GFS total rain we might be looking at some record depths.

I know I've said in the past multiple times I don't care about the snowfall depth but when it's impressive as it is now you want it to stay and you want to break the record. I seriously hope we don't get screwed over by rain.

Next week's storm is going to be very interesting and I hope nobody gives up hope just b/c things don't look that great now...I think we def see models go colder as we get closer, snowpack, cold high to the north, I just don't see us in a warm solution, at least to begin the event...even then WAA might take a while...then if it happens, it;s going to happen much faster aloft than at the sfc so there is our ice situation right there.

[Ginx snewx]

I know I was portraying a horrible winter for SNE but I am throwing that out the window, if people want to jump on my back for saying it would be awful please do so, I don't mind at all. I really think we could end up seeing a top 10 winter for some locations in SNE. I know BDL's seasonal total is inflated with the past few storms but until it's fixed (if it is ever) we have to go by what we have, and were not that far from a top 10 winter really...I really think we can do it here.

We all bust but to bust positive is great. If we can get a great March then I think we can get top five, we will see but things look good for a while.

[weathafella]

We all bust but to bust positive is great. If we can get a great March then I think we can get top five, we will see but things look good for a while.

You and I have a chance of busting too low. This pattern is snowy......and there really doesn't appear to be a break in site.

[weatherwiz]

We all bust but to bust positive is great. If we can get a great March then I think we can get top five, we will see but things look good for a while.

Yeah I'm not upset that I busted at all, especially considering it's long-range forecasting. I do love long-range forecasting though and I really hope I can become much better at it as time goes along, especially since I would not mind forecasting for energy companies, the thought of long-range forecasting is really intriguing to me. Considering I'm just getting started at it I do expect to bust, and instead of getting all down and upset about it I take it as a very valuable learning experience.

I do think March can be very good for us, very good. I know Ray has been on the March bandwagon and I know at least HM has been leaning towards that way as well given some of his posts this winter. Considering the way we are going now and the way things look to be going if we do have a great March than I think we definitely see a top 10 winter for much of the region.

Fun, fun times ahead.

[weatherwiz]

GFS a bit stronger and a little with the cutter through 36 than the NAM.

[Ginx snewx]

You and I have a chance of busting too low. This pattern is snowy......and there really doesn't appear to be a break in site.

Now that would be one historic winter with the numbers we tossed out.

[Ginx snewx]

GFS a bit stronger and a little with the cutter through 36 than the NAM.

It's a clipper flipper

[weathafella]

My wife wants to visit her parents in FL and wants me to go. So I negotiated mid March. I theorized wx will be guaranteed good in FL by then.

[H2Otown_WX]

You and I have a chance of busting too low. This pattern is snowy......and there really doesn't appear to be a break in site.

FWIW, I was watching TWC and a LR forecaster was on and he said it looked like the PAC Jet was going to weaken towards the end of the month meaning less storminess in the U.S. overall..

[weatherwiz]

meh GFS not really impressive with the clipper at all...neither is the NAM...likely just some snow showers with probably some very minor accumulations for some, more likely across NNE and N. MA.