CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 This is a very interesting pattern coming up. For the first time that I can remember in months, the MJO wants to put convection in the date line. It basically has been useless all year, but I think the +PNA type pattern that models are showing may at least be partly because of the progged convection. The NAO is forecasted to be near neutral or slightly positive. A + PNA with neautral NAO would likely be pretty cold for the east. No NAO block would likely allow any cold in Canada to spill into the eastern US. It remains to be seen exactly how cold it will get, but some of the models bring this into Quebec..if not right into the northeast. Here are the MJO plots. Note how they want to bring convection into the dateline. Maybe this will weaken Nina some?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 12z GGEM also looking at a cooler solution for next week. Very nice. GFS is on probation until performance improves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Very nice. GFS is on probation until performance improves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 OK someone give me Euro good news, I am going to cry if we get a big rainstorm. It's just odd that with all the cold air that will be over our heads that this low will track that far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 OK someone give me Euro good news, I am going to cry if we get a big rainstorm. It's just odd that with all the cold air that will be over our heads that this low will track that far west. Not out that far yet, Clipper looks to redevelop over doweast maine though, But still has lt snows here.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Not out that far yet, Clipper looks to redevelop over doweast maine though, But still has lt snows here.......... Like an inch or two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Downeast Maine maybe 1-3" not much precip back here dusting........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I have a feeling the euro is going to come in with less colder type storm for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 or perhaps something nicely phased along the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Its a hugger, Low looks like it tracks right over Boston into Downeast Maine........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinghamBoss Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I'd have to go dig through some threads; but believe Jerry made a triple point prediction for next week. GFS would argue 3-5" then a mix for interior, rain at the coast. It also appears that it wants to triple point sne...hopefully. Lets just get this east. Edit: for next week that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 or perhaps something nicely phased along the coast? Its a hugger, Low looks like it tracks right over Boston into Downeast Maine........... She's trying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 over boston and to downeast? lordy be maybe anutha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Its pretty close on the euro to a decent snowstorm, Mtns of ME/NH/VT look like they would do well.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 This would be pretty much game on for most if this was 100 miles further east.......... It would still be a mix coast snow inland deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I don't like how faw west the trough starts amplifying.. Worried about this one Hopefully we have enough cold left over to at least drop a few inches of snow before and changeover to ice and /or rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Looks like right near the canal, but the system is much warmer than this past one. I would think snow near GC to Dendrite to Jaykawk witth a little IP mixed in. I think ORH and possibly Kev may start as snow, but go to a sleet or ice mix..maybe even rain, but quick snow to rain for the coast. If it can deepen a little quicker and shift east..it would be good for many. This actually does start out colder than 00z, but the vortmax is stronger and tucks the low close to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Its pretty close on the euro to a decent snowstorm, Mtns of ME/NH/VT look like they would do well.......... Looks tons better than that red-headed step-child bastage GFS does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 defintely heading towards a bigger storm scenario on the euro thats more fun to track, even if it misses me SE sinking gradient pattern looks to be coming off the table based on the 12z runs..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Looks tons better than that red-headed step-child bastage GFS does. It did trend west a bit. My gut says it won't be a cutter, but could be something that tracks near the canal or se mass. It sux having a retreating high, and an area of low pressure sticking into the Great Lakes for my hood. This seems like an interior deal and up through NNE. It's not far from getting areas near me several inches so we'll see. The Rev and Will would probably eek out some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Does the secondary stay weak, when does it intensify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Does the secondary stay weak, when does it intensify? bombs away ....lol again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 defintely heading towards a bigger storm scenario on the euro thats more fun to track, even if it misses me SE sinking gradient pattern looks to be coming off the table based on the 12z runs..... Like the gradient pattern..probably good for me too. I'm cool with you getting some action on this coastal, long as I don't changeover to plain rain. Wouldn't mind a crust for my 2 ft. LOL. Rooting for you, appreciate your posts on here. I know how you feel this year cuz its how I felt last year. Gradient pattern would make a lot of people smile from you down thru nne and at least cne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 It did trend west a bit. My gut says it won't be a cutter, but could be something that tracks near the canal or se mass. It sux having a retreating high, and an area of low pressure sticking into the Great Lakes for my hood. This seems like an interior deal and up through NNE. It's not far from getting areas near me several inches so we'll see. The Rev and Will would probably eek out some snow. The nice thing about this last little storm we just had is that up here there was never any question about rain gumming up the works. Not so this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 This would be pretty much game on for most if this was 100 miles further east.......... It would still be a mix coast snow inland deal Yeah, a heck of a lot better than the GFS. I guess I will keep my hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 bombs away ....lol again there's nothing like t-shirts and shorts, sunglasses 60 degrees with 2 feet of snow to melt. Jan '96 anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Makes me nervous, king puts out close to 1.5 rain down here, 24 inch snow pack with an inch and a half of rain with a ground that is frozen solid is NOT fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I would advise coastal dwellers to start shoveling snow away from the foundation of your home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 She's trying. One look at this chart tells me all I need to know; meltdown......Will and kev may salavage a net gain, but I hope this trends into an open wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 It did trend west a bit. My gut says it won't be a cutter, but could be something that tracks near the canal or se mass. It sux having a retreating high, and an area of low pressure sticking into the Great Lakes for my hood. This seems like an interior deal and up through NNE. It's not far from getting areas near me several inches so we'll see. The Rev and Will would probably eek out some snow. wouldn't mind seeing that solution for obvious reasons...either a bunch of snow on top of snow or some snow and then a crust to be solidified by the cold that follows. If I"m figuring this pattern out roughly it looks like just maybe we - have a break here to recover from our drunkeness of the last couple days - a clean up the snowpack clipper comes thru this weekend. - big storm tues/wed with mixing - strong cold surge targeting us instead of Florida - +PNA provides a gradient and lots of chances with a storm track that would bring some swfe. After that the blocking probably returns in some form though perhaps a true warm-up happens first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.