weathafella Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 It is definitely starting to have a classic Miller B look to it. The only limiting factor in it becoming a really big storm is a kicker system in the plains behind it. It has the look of an overrunning event, a Miller B, and SWFE hybrid. I know it's different but it kind of has the bowling ball turning into a coastal look but the snow totals and intensity may rival 12/13/07. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 This event looks as if it wants to bomb near Boston, so there might be the potential for some wrap-around CCB snows in SNE that other areas like mine don't get. In any case, the 18z GFS had a very juicy overrunning scenario with the 18z NAM/18z DGEX confirming the potential. We'll see if the 0z ECM comes around to a stronger solution with more interaction between the northern and southern streams. Could be an impressive event given ratios with 850s near -10C on the back side and then arctic cold moving in afterwards with fresh snowpack on the ground. I'm going to bust low.....on BOS snow this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 This storm is going to come out of nowhere for the public. Snow showers has been the call for Friday the last few days. Tommorow they'll cover the storm at hand then Wednesday morning people will wake to find another major snowstorm less then 48 hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'm going to bust low.....on BOS snow this year. It's certainly possible...I could easily see Boston getting close to a foot in the Friday event as well as a few inches tomorrow morning. How much snow has Logan recorded this year? 35"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 12z GGEM Ensm not as amped up as the Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Early call looks like 8-12 lolli to 16 type deal on Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 It's certainly possible...I could easily see Boston getting close to a foot in the Friday event as well as a few inches tomorrow morning. How much snow has Logan recorded this year? 35"? 40.4 to date. Unless the pattern totally flips, we seem to be in a year that it wants to snow in. BTW...fwiw, the SSTA dailies have really tanked of late. This Nina has some muscle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 12z GGEM Ensm not as amped up as the Op. If it was, I'd buy a rider on insurance. The OP was amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 40.4 to date. Unless the pattern totally flips, we seem to be in a year that it wants to snow in. BTW...fwiw, the SSTA dailies have really tanked of late. This Nina has some muscle! Yes, this is looking like an epic winter from NYC to BOS: incredible persistence of snowpack, two major blizzards, cold temperatures, and a chance for both stations to near double their averages... CPC still has Niño 3.4 at -1.5C, but it does look to have cooled significantly in the last few days on the latest SST maps. The whole globe is cooling off nicely with the strong Niña. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 It's coming.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 It's coming.. Yup, a bigger deal than tomorrow. Nice job on the attachment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Dependent on the Euro run tonight, I think a swath of 10+" across the region lolli 20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 WTF? Juiced or what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I think it's a 5-10" type deal, which I am more than happy with. It's a little slow to bomb and very progressive, as Will alluded to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 That's ptype issues for the coast the way the GGEM tracks it between 84 and 96h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 That's ptype issues for the coast the way the GGEM tracks it between 84 and 96h. Back to my neck of the woods.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 You can see how this thing is just trucking through on the GGEM for instance. So I stick to my 12-16" snowfall max ...GGEM would place that more in the interior, but we can't know yet. Probably most get 6-12".... This one is too fast to produce massive amounts maybe. Dependent on the Euro run tonight, I think a swath of 10+" across the region lolli 20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I think it's a 5-10" type deal, which I am more than happy with. It's a little slow to bomb and very progressive, as Will alluded to. This has potential 50 times greater than anything shown verbatim right now. +PNA and a falling -NAO with a rapidly sharpening disturbance diving down from Manitoba, phasing over the TNV. Low heights over the southeast ... probably lower than modeled right now ... allows this thing to dig dig dig. This thing bombs earlier than currently modeled ... which would put it right about ... just south of Cape Cod. High MECS potential if you ask me. I'm getting a Jan 2005 vibe right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 This has potential 50 times greater than anything shown verbatim right now. +PNA and a falling -NAO with a rapidly sharpening disturbance diving down from Manitoba, phasing over the TNV. Low heights over the southeast ... probably lower than modeled right now ... allows this thing to dig dig dig. This thing bombs earlier than currently modeled ... which would put it right about ... just south of Cape Cod. High MECS potential if you ask me. I'm getting a Jan 2005 vibe right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Hey, now let's be fair: I was very far from the jackpot with that storm. Or is that why you only gave me one weenie instead of three? Seriously, a few tweaks, and we're home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 This has potential 50 times greater than anything shown verbatim right now. +PNA and a falling -NAO with a rapidly sharpening disturbance diving down from Manitoba, phasing over the TNV. Low heights over the southeast ... probably lower than modeled right now ... allows this thing to dig dig dig. This thing bombs earlier than currently modeled ... which would put it right about ... just south of Cape Cod. High MECS potential if you ask me. I'm getting a Jan 2005 vibe right now The kicker kicks it in the fanny. Seriously, if it all came together, I could see someone getting HECS amounts.....speed of movent means more for the aerial coverage of those type of totals, but you just need all hell to break loose over a 12 hr period to get isolated zones of 20"+. I'd hedge conservative for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 EURO is an advisory event for our overrated Friday potenial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Dependent on the Euro run tonight, I think a swath of 10+" across the region lolli 20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 What he is saying is possible, but he was being far too premature and jumping the gun; the fact of the matter is nothing other than the GEM and DGEX has ever showed anything more than a mod event. Still time, but I'd hedge mod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 What he is saying is possible, but he was being far too premature and jumping the gun; the fact of the matter is nothing other than the GEM, NAM and DGEX has ever showed anything more than a mod event. Still time, but I'd hedge mod. Yeah if we get a big time amped up phase like the NAM then we could be talking about those huge amounts. But relying on the NAM at 84 hrs is never a good thing to do as we all know lol. Maybe the moderate event the GFS shows is the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Still think this ends up being 8-12 with higher lollis storm on Friday..but here's BOX current take AT THE MOMENT...AM BELIEVING A GFS/ECMWF BLEND. AM EXPECTING AQUICK DUMP OF SNOW... ON THE ORDER OF 4 TO 8 INCHES... LATETHURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...ENDING IN MOST AREAS EXCEPTFAR NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHERN NH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATUREPROFILES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ESPECIALLY N AND W OF I-95IN MA/RI. SNOW COULD CHANGE TO RAIN IN SOUTHERN RI AND SOUTHEASTMA. IF THE MORE WESTERN SOLUTIONS TURN OUT TO BE CORRECT...THENMORE OF THE REGION WOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN WHICH WOULD CUTAMOUNTS DOWN A BIT. WITH MOST OF THE SNOW FALLING IN A 12-HOURPERIOD...IT IS LIKELY TO BE QUITE HEAVY DURING THE MORNING RUSHHOUR CAUSING TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Still think this ends up being 8-12 with higher lollis storm on Friday..but here's BOX current take I agree. That said, looks like the 06z GFS has shifted east and made a light Caper Scraper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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