yoda Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 It would take alot more than that to get rid of this water laden 1-3 feet of snow across New England. 1-2 inches of rain in 12 hrs could exacerbate the melting somewhat http://www.nco.ncep....fs_p12_156l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 GFS gets rid of everyone's snow with heavy rain up and down the east coast. Granted it will change next run http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_150l.gif http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_156l.gif There is plenty of snow for SNE before it changes over to rain: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 GFS has a front end snow, to ice, to rain scenario...certainly possible. Also possible it gets squeezed south of us. But this storm definitely has more of a threat of cutting west than this last one did. Repeat after me: triple point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 1-2 inches of rain in 12 hrs could exacerbate the melting somewhat http://www.nco.ncep....fs_p12_156l.gif If it's 55 degrees. And I'm telling you, 12 hours would do jack doodoo. The pack would come down but it would be very much intact on the other side. Give me 3 days of 50+ and then we can talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 Repeat after me: triple point. Very very possible with the type of arctic airmass to the north and even settling in over us. Youll often see the models get too aggressive driving the low into the airmass. Doesn't mean it can't happen...Jan 28, 1994. One of the few nasty cutters that winter. But even in that storm we got a quick 2-4" followed by hours of icing, then if finally torched us but I remember the initial snow and ice basically preserved what snowpack was already on the ground before that..which had sleet in it too. Sometimes a little taint helps strengthen the snow pack. The occasional sleet taint in 1994 made the snow like a glacier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I don't think a suppressed track to the south of us is totally impossible, looks like the GFS just has the trough go negatively tilted too early and the storm is already closing off well to our west...if this thing can wait longer to close off maybe we can get a more favorable storm track. Regardless though this one looks like it could be real nasty/messy with all sorts of weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I don't think a suppressed track to the south of us is totally impossible, looks like the GFS just has the trough go negatively tilted too early and the storm is already closing off well to our west...if this thing can wait longer to close off maybe we can get a more favorable storm track. Regardless though this one looks like it could be real nasty/messy with all sorts of weather. Looks like snow-->ice-->heavy rain here....Westchester may be canceling schools for the third time in less than three weeks if the frozen part of this storm verifies. We had a snow day for the Norlun with 4-8" across the county, a snow day for this Miller B with 12-18" countywide, and now may need to burn another one if the storm makes roads nasty. Looks like a mess to me with a cold 1030mb high over Canada and a storm trying to cut to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 GFS has a front end snow, to ice, to rain scenario...certainly possible. Also possible it gets squeezed south of us. But this storm definitely has more of a threat of cutting west than this last one did. I hate these events because I never see the ice...it's just snow to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Looks like snow-->ice-->heavy rain here....Westchester may be canceling schools for the third time in less than three weeks if the frozen part of this storm verifies. We had a snow day for the Norlun with 4-8" across the county, a snow day for this Miller B with 12-18" countywide, and now may need to burn another one if the storm makes roads nasty. Looks like a mess to me with a cold 1030mb high over Canada and a storm trying to cut to the west. Yeah this certainly has mess written all over it and this probably won't be an easy forecast at all,. In all honesty though a cutter wouldn't be the end of the world, it just looks like the pattern is sort of reloading and after that system we quickly re-enter a much more favorable pattern which continues to look very active. The cutter virtually rides us of the cold airmass only for it to be replaced by a much more fresh airmass. I like our snow chances preceding this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 FWIW the GGEM likes it colder for the next system...but that doesn't really change any original thinking on this. Still a threat to be a further west solution...but there is a lot of arctic air nearby so we could see anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 FWIW the GGEM likes it colder for the next system...but that doesn't really change any original thinking on this. Still a threat to be a further west solution...but there is a lot of arctic air nearby so we could see anything GGEM looks to be a weak Miller B...low goes from 1010mb off the Southern Delmarva to 1005mb well to the east of Boston....moderate snowfall for NYC metro to SNE. Track looks much more suppressed than the GFS, but all options are still on the table at this point as far as the system goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 EURO has a 990mb low near the Benchmark, but apparently is rain for most... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 EURO has a 990mb low near the Benchmark, but apparently is rain for most... With the setup the Euro shows its likely the storm would cut west of the Apps....I can't envision a benchmark track with that synoptic setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 This is like a deli-line. Out with yesterdays event and feet-first into tracking the next. Love it. The good news is that we have a wintry event in the cards. In all cases, we have some nice wintry precip with many possiiblities on the table. Five days out, that's good enough for me. The timing is great too. Best case it can cancel me Jamaicaa trip on Wed ( ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 With the setup the Euro shows its likely the storm would cut west of the Apps....I can't envision a benchmark track with that synoptic setup. Euro looks cracked out past 96 hrs , esp with the s/ws in the southwest. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 More snow fun. Bank it. NPI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 SO is the Euro snow or rain or mix? BOX says Euro is mostly snow and colder solution How do the Euro ensembles look ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 This looks more and more like a gradient pattern for a time. Those are my favorites because our latitude really helps. 1993-94. Tonight's GFS advertises this. And the timing is such that my 1/18 flight to TPA would be delayed or canceled. Which means I may not have to go because if it's an event of size (the snow/ice), 24 hour cancellation means its not worth attending this meeting...of which I'm a principal...oy vey but snow first! we are cut of the same cloth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 1-3 looks likely Saturday night..Maybe 2-4 if it really breaks right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 SO is the Euro snow or rain or mix? BOX says Euro is mostly snow and colder solution How do the Euro ensembles look ? The euro ensembles look to be over the Cape. It's too bad we have a retreating high. Still worried it could trend warmer. It's funny because the euro op is warmer, but with a track a little east. Euro looks like a mix ofm crap, but hard to get that with a BM track. Euro ensembles are colder with 850 0 line near BOS to HFD. A tick east and it's all snow for most. Weenies crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The euro ensembles look to be over the Cape. It's too bad we have a retreating high. Still worried it could trend warmer. It's funny because the euro op is warmer, but with a track a little east. Euro looks like a mix ofm crap, but hard to get that with a BM track. Euro ensembles are colder with 850 0 line near BOS to HFD. A tick east and it's all snow for most. Weenies crossed. Yeah i don't have a good feeling about all snow with this one. I think we see snow to mix..Getting some ice and water into the snowpack wouldn;t be a bad thing. I'm worried it trends a little warmer. Hopefully it doesn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Yeah i don't have a good feeling about all snow with this one. I think we see snow to mix..Getting some ice and water into the snowpack wouldn;t be a bad thing. I'm worried it trends a little warmer. Hopefully it doesn't It's funny how warm the euro op is. I find it hard to believe 850 0C temps would be in VT with a BM track. The GFS op would be pretty warm. 06z seemed a little colder, so lets hope it continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 It's funny how warm the euro op is. I find it hard to believe 850 0C temps would be in VT with a BM track. The GFS op would be pretty warm. 06z seemed a little colder, so lets hope it continues. Yeah, I saw the Euro sfc low placement and got excited. Then I saw where the 850 0C line was and was all "WTF?". Glad it isn't only know-nothing me who thought that looks odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 The euro ensembles look to be over the Cape. It's too bad we have a retreating high. Still worried it could trend warmer. It's funny because the euro op is warmer, but with a track a little east. Euro looks like a mix ofm crap, but hard to get that with a BM track. Euro ensembles are colder with 850 0 line near BOS to HFD. A tick east and it's all snow for most. Weenies crossed. Doesn't the op Euro have a bit of a warm bias? Doesn't really matter at this point, since we really should just be interpreting the pattern As someone already said, this could trend way NW. Not much there to stop that from happening unfortunately. At least we're looking at continued perturbed flow with wintry temperatures -- which is enough to make us continue scheduling our days around the model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Long range Euro is unbelievably cold for New England. Lows well below zero if it's to be believed. Mechanism for this seems to be the rapidly rising PNA ridge after the gradient storm... Something to keep an eye on. edit... It's actually more that ridging in the GOA slides forward to near a traditional PNA position, as opposed to what we sometimes see, which is the heights over the west coast get ripped upward. Regardless, the effects are similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Doesn't the op Euro have a bit of a warm bias? Doesn't really matter at this point, since we really should just be interpreting the pattern As someone already said, this could trend way NW. Not much there to stop that from happening unfortunately. At least we're looking at continued perturbed flow with wintry temperatures -- which is enough to make us continue scheduling our days around the model runs Yeah it could go nw as well, which scares me. 12z runs will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
millpondwx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Long range Euro is unbelievably cold for New England. Lows well below zero if it's to be believed. Mechanism for this seems to be the rapidly rising PNA ridge after the gradient storm... Something to keep an eye on. edit... It's actually more that ridging in the GOA slides forward to near a traditional PNA position, as opposed to what we sometimes see, which is the heights over the west coast get ripped upward. Regardless, the effects are similar. 850 Ts have the -24C isotherm down to the pass pike next weekend. Sfc temps below zero from New England west to the Dakotas at12z next Saturday with sub -30F temps for a large part of south central Canada. :shiver: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Interestingly Box p&c for this area already has 60% snow showers for sat. That's pretty high confidence this far out. Maybe we'll eek out something measurable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 1-3 Saturday nite..Everyone pretty much agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 NOGAPS is a blitzing snowstorm and GGEM is suppressed, I like the spread at this point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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