CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The euro ensembles have Friday's storm. We do have a -nao developing, but it's east based. Gotta hope it can do it's thing, because I think the low wants to run up the coast. Funny thing is, the model is very bullish when you look at others who barely have a low. Afterwards, we look to have a nice -epo developing, which cold and some storm chances overall. I don't see much of a -nao as of now, but perhaps it shows up in future model runs. I think it's taking a breather for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 I really like the day 6 potential. 18z GFS -- shift the whole thing 300mi SW (doable), and we have another widespread 12+" storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 EC still has the coastal for next Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 EC still has the coastal for next Sunday. Fun game in Foxboro to watch in those conds if the Pats expectedly win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 That would be a great game in the snow against the steelers........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 Euro ensembles look like a gradient style pattern in a way. They have ridging into western Canada, but maintain a positively tilted mean trough in the Plains with slightly above normal heights at times over the east. Looks like an overrunning pattern possible..or even swfe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 16, 2011 Share Posted January 16, 2011 HPC not buying the Euro OP but DT is. I think we should ride the seasonal trends. If their is not blocking or East blocking at the time, why wouldn't it come up? All the other guidance is apparently a lot faster so maybe an EC bias holding back ss energy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 00z models want the Friday storm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 00z models want the Friday storm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 00z models want the Friday storm too. Ensembles more robust than GFS op. But how about this tasty treat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I think dendrite would be happy with this: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep12060.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 00z GFS clown map FWIW: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BDR Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 00z GFS clown map FWIW: How do you get this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 How do you get this? http://www.wxcaster.com/models_main.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BDR Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 http://www.wxcaster....models_main.htm Oh wow, I was just on that site looking at the NAM clown map. I didn't realize this was from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Oh wow, I was just on that site looking at the NAM clown map. I didn't realize this was from there. Yeah it took me a while to find these zoomed in maps...his site has a ton of data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 I think dendrite would be happy with this: http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12060.gif I would be. The Euro and EC Ens just aren't very impressed right now with it so I'm not getting my hopes up. Hopefully they bring it back at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Friday's storm could still sneek up on us. The GFS ensembles like it, and even the EC ensembles at least hint at it. GFS op is actually nice for central ne. After that, we say bye to the -NAO for a while and hello to a more +PNA and even -EPO pattern. To me, it seems like storms will probably like the East coast area, but a track very close to the coast..or over sne is a possibility without any blocking. Overall it looks like it could be a fun pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Friday's storm could still sneek up on us. The GFS ensembles like it, and even the EC ensembles at least hint at it. GFS op is actually nice for central ne. After that, we say bye to the -NAO for a while and hello to a more +PNA and even -EPO pattern. To me, it seems like storms will probably like the East coast area, but a track very close to the coast..or over sne is a possibility without any blocking. Overall it looks like it could be a fun pattern. Looks good on the 12z NAM too at 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Friday's storm could still sneek up on us. The GFS ensembles like it, and even the EC ensembles at least hint at it. GFS op is actually nice for central ne. After that, we say bye to the -NAO for a while and hello to a more +PNA and even -EPO pattern. To me, it seems like storms will probably like the East coast area, but a track very close to the coast..or over sne is a possibility without any blocking. Overall it looks like it could be a fun pattern. Heavy heavy climo FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Nice little event on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Nice little event on the GFS. 2 snow/ice events within 3 days of each other again..What a pattern..and another one early next week possibly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Nice little event on the GFS. It's been steadily trending north. I like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 latest from the Man himself, Baroclinic Instability: Just missed the phase of the secondary low. If you compare GFS 0 to 06 to 12z, the western trough passing through the intermountain W keeps digging ever so slightly less and is nudged a tad eastward--that small difference of when that second wave phases with the northern stream over the plains is the difference--and it will show up big in non-linear development. But I this is a legitimate threat for a wrapped storm similar to CMC. Yes weird, the CMC is on to something here. NAM is about to show something similar if extrapolated too. The general trend amongst the operational GFS/ECM is to trend slow and make subtle changes since the breakdown of the -NAO. The GFS/ECm did this with the last storm that passed through the OV and developed into the HECS coastal storm--and at least the GFS is doing it here again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 latest from the Man himself, Baroclinic Instability: Just missed the phase of the secondary low. If you compare GFS 0 to 06 to 12z, the western trough passing through the intermountain W keeps digging ever so slightly less and is nudged a tad eastward--that small difference of when that second wave phases with the northern stream over the plains is the difference--and it will show up big in non-linear development. But I this is a legitimate threat for a wrapped storm similar to CMC. Yes weird, the CMC is on to something here. NAM is about to show something similar if extrapolated too. The general trend amongst the operational GFS/ECM is to trend slow and make subtle changes since the breakdown of the -NAO. The GFS/ECm did this with the last storm that passed through the OV and developed into the HECS coastal storm--and at least the GFS is doing it here again. Sam reads the bolded and dies just a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 Sam reads the bolded and dies just a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GFS ensembles really hitting that storm on Friday. 988 low very near the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GFS ensembles really hitting that storm on Friday. 988 low very near the BM. Very nice. Seems like nobody is paying attention to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GFS ensembles really hitting that storm on Friday. 988 low very near the BM. GGEM bombs... but looks like it chooses to enter SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2011 Share Posted January 17, 2011 GGEM bombs... but looks like it chooses to enter SNE Yeah saw that. Big storm on the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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