dendrite Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 The GFS has -36C 850s getting into SW Quebec next weekend and MOS has a high of 7F at LCI on the 22nd. Not bad for 7+ day MOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Euro d6-7 looking interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Really starting to like the look of Tuesday/Wednesday storm in NNE... Analogs/models arguing, as I see it, for a possible high advisory/low warning event... We'll see where it goes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Seems like the board was offline this morning Saw a low of -6.1F which was interesting because at 10PM it was 8.6F Athol was at -12.0F this morning at 7:30AM Gorgeous out! Crisp, refreshing edit - oops, this should be in the obs thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 1-2 spot 3's tonite... Major icestorm potential on Tuesday after front end snow..NAM hitting ice hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 12z NAM took a step back, but hopefully the gfs continues the trend. Seems like most people may start frozen, but interior goes to ice and coast to a cold rain. Looks like the typical spots from sw NH and nrn orh county, out to the Berks have the best shot of sn/ip mix. Euro offers a decent storm around d6-7 or so. Hopefully a refresher for some tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 12z NAM took a step back, but hopefully the gfs continues the trend. Seems like most people may start frozen, but interior goes to ice and coast to a cold rain. Looks like the typical spots from sw NH and nrn orh county, out to the Berks have the best shot of sn/ip mix. Euro offers a decent storm around d6-7 or so. Hopefully a refresher for some tonight. I think we'd all welcome a nice icestorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Peeked at hpc...looks great next 10. Will beat my over under of 45 inches by end of jan. Great period of winter weather ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I think we'd all welcome a nice icestorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 JB now going cold Feb..Looking like a wire to wire winter weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 JB now going cold Feb..Looking like a wire to wire winter weenies dont forget the big march on tap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Minor snowfall then ice storm FTW...lets postpone this chem midterm on tuesday some more... Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Yeah JB said he expects winter to last in April. Of course this is from a guy that completely busted on his January forecast. dont forget the big march on tap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 12z GFS appears to be digging a tad more in the southern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 1-2 spot 3's tonite... Major icestorm potential on Tuesday after front end snow..NAM hitting ice hard It is? On weathertap it looked like it had surface temps well into the 30's...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Relocated this post in the mid week discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 We probably should be discussion this in the mid week storm disco. That way we we all have a place for one stop shopping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phishn Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 On the 12 Z GFS High Pressure smack dab overhead Monday night, heading northeast Tuesday morning, cold air damming signature in its wake back towards NY, NJ, PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Folks, if things break right we end up with a warning criteria icing event (who would have thunk during a La Nina...) on Tuesday+, followed by a larger mass field differential event on D7-9. Don't count on appropriate boundary layer resolution ioutside of 60 hours, even by the superior resolved NAM. I have seen this many times in the past for intervals 60 to 84 hours, warm run, warm run, warm run, a little cooler, cold at 24-36. High pressure north is pinning polar-arctic hybrid air mass in place, and the great damming signature in the PP up and down the eastern seaboard at hour 60 is telling that there is probably more resistance there than would be normally expected for an eastward retreating high. Such that, most importantly a weak gradient low coming up underneath LI would definitely excite more ageostrophic drain than the even the NAM is seeing at this time range. Also doing so over anomalously large snow pack rim to rim from CAR to ALB. No guidance I saw off the 00z cycle was taking this thing truly west of SNE - though some were non-commital with a secondary appeal. I see the 31F isotherm lining up from NW CT to BED, with pockets of 32 strugglers with static ice from just N of HFD to NW RI, to the southwest 'burbs of BOS. Probably starts as snow everywhere before the character of the event flips to this description - even on the coast, but they go from snow to cold rain inside of I-95 down to PVD. I also leave room open here for more discerned coastal cyclogenesis should the S/W coming on-board over the WC around 60 hours be somewhat weaker, thus allowing the lead (Tuesday dynamics) to be less damped. As far as total impact, it depends on the QPF but the Euro was pounding 1+" liq equiv, and now the 12z NAM is as well. Also , the Euro last night tried to commit more fully to secondary, and also has a nose of damming in the PP extending SW from NW GOM to ALBish, which signals that you'd be unwise to be 850 thermal field reliant for your surface p-type. [Edit: Oh yea, and *IF" said 60 hour S/W coming in out W is substantially stronger, the lead is less impactive and we're then monitoring a Miller A potential - not yet modeled) I have less issue now with a more surpressed solution than was depicted earlier yesterday(s) because the overnight recalculations at CDC and CPC have the NAO slipping negative in increments beginning presently and leading to next weekend... Which leads nicely to the possible biggie out there in time. The PNA is concertedly nearing +1 SD in the well-clustered 21 member GFS for multiple nightly EOFs at CPC, now the CDC is at least picking up on this in the initializaitons (showing a clear negative bias in the D4-7 lead predicitons). Taking these into account, we have strong PNA with negative differentiating NAO. Do not discount that deep amplification into a quasi-closed N stream low in the vicinity. It would not take much of a nudge to have all that evolve similarly to the KU even a few weeks ago. Stay tuned... Major major damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Storm 2 is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 We probably should be discussion this in the mid week storm disco. That way we we all have a place for one stop shopping. we should probably lock this one then. i wonder wether i will ice in framingham? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 we should probably lock this one then. i wonder wether i will ice in framingham? No need to lock this thread. We can still discuss the upcoming pattern and later storm threats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 GFS looks very suspect looking past the tue-wed event bringing down the arctic air bleeds in the arctic air with nary a system up here zero chance of that happening. euro was interesting with a more substantial event along the EC, would make more sense but its likely overdone? or perhaps the artctic intrusion never fully makes it?...will be interesting to see how it unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 JB now going cold Feb..Looking like a wire to wire winter weenies Who's your daddy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 Who's your daddy? You, Ginx and MRG FTW ... JB attributing it to volcanic activity and low solar activity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 You, Ginx and MRG FTW ... JB attributing it to volcanic activity and low solar activity Low solar is a strong contributor imho. Not sure about volcanic activity since initial eruptions occurred before the summer and it was hot throughout most of the NHEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 No need to lock this thread. We can still discuss the upcoming pattern and later storm threats right ...but we shuld change title then (......beyond Jan 20) (thurs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 I think we'd all welcome a nice icestorm No such thing as a "nice" icestorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 15, 2011 Share Posted January 15, 2011 No such thing as a "nice" icestorm If it's not heavy enough to cause power failure and I'm safe at home then I don't mind it, but I get what you're saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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