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The Pattern beyond Jan 12


ORH_wxman

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I like...

1-3 along the coast

2-4 in the berks

tr-1 in the valley

for the clipper tom night, elevated obviously will do ok with the pixie dust, a little enhancment along the coast aided by waa and light flow off the ocean, and possibly trying to redevelop.

Wont rule out a 4" amount on the cape.

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Euro limits the disaster with a brief period of sn/ip to rain on the coast. SN/IP inland near the Berks. It's a little better than the 00z disaster..esp out west.

Ensembles are still colder aloft. The NW extent of 0C makes it about up to me. Hopefully we keep mitigated the warmth with time.
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Sick blocking lately with the 580dm ridge over Alaska and now the NAO/AO trending severely negative. Pattern looks ripe for a MECS around Day 8 and perhaps after...

I don't see a severely negative nao/ao. It does tank towards d7 which is hopefully a sign for something good. You get your ridge fetish too out west, although it's just west of the coastline. It's interesting going out ahead of time, because the nao seems like it wants to go negative, but it's progged near neutral. However, we have some ridging in western Canada. The 11-15 day doesn't look super cold right now, but seems to be cold enough for anything that comes our way....at least as of now.

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