mahk_webstah Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Kinda interesting hot off the presses. Not sure what the whole thing means but like the bolded part. PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 906 AM EST FRI JAN 14 2011 VALID 12Z TUE JAN 18 2011 - 12Z FRI JAN 21 2011 ...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW QUITE AN INTERESTING FLOW PATTERN OVER NOAM OVER THE NEXT WEEK... GUIDANCE IN A LARGER SENSE AGREES THAT A COOLING/UNSETTLING AND AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STEADILY PROGRESS FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL US TO WRN ATLANTIC TUE-THU. IN THIS FLOW EMBEDDED SYSTEM AND STREAM PHASING ISSUES THOUGH INTRODUCE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AT LOWER LEVELS...ESPECIALLY WITH LOW DEVELOPMENTS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER FOCUS. SOME OF THIS UNCERTAINTY SEEMS RELATED TO THE LOW LEVEL RESPONSE TO HOW POTENT LEAD ENERGIES DIGGING OUT FROM THE WRN US INTO THE BASE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH VERIFIES ACROSS THE US SRN TIER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE 00 UTC ECMWF/UKMET/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE 00 UTC GFS/CANADIAN AND RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS. OVERNIGHT HPC SHORT RANGE PREFERENCE AS PER THE PMDHMD FOR A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION ALOFT STILL SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND AT LOWER LEVELS THE 06 UTC GFS DOES NOW SUPPORT A MORE DEFINED SURFACE WAVE. THIS IN TURN HELPS LEAD TO HPC PROGS WITH CLOSE PROXIMITY TO MID-ATLANTIC THEN NEW ENG COASTAL CYCLOGENSIS TUE/WED...ALBEIT WITH LINGERING UNCERTAINTY CONSIDERING FORECAST SPREAD RECENTLY. UPSTREAM...THE 00 UTC ECMWF/UKMET ALSO OFFER HIGHER STRENGTH POTENTIAL THAN THE 00/06 UTC GFS AND CANADIAN FOR POTENTIAL ADVANCE OF RE-EMERGING A NRN STREAM TROUGH ENERGY DIG ALOFT INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL MIDWEEK AND ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL NRN TIER INTO THU/FRI THAT WOULD FAVOR QUITE AN ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL SURGE OF ACRTIC AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST-CENTRAL US DURING THAT TIME. THE ECMWF/UKMET AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ECMWF ENSEMBLES ALSO MEANWHILE DEPCIT MUCH SHARPER DIGGING OF TROUGH ENERGIES FARTHER BACK DOWN THROUGH THE US WEST COAST...LEADING TO CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT CENTERED NEAR SRN CA BY DAYS 5-7 WED-FRI COMPARED TO MUCH BROADER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE ACROSS THE W-CENTRAKL STATES IN RECENT GFS/CANADIAN MODEL AND ENSEMBLE RUNS. IN THESE CASES...DEEPLY AMPLIFIED LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPMENT CENTERED ACROSS THE NW PACIFIC ANCHORING NEXT WEEK SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO FAVOR DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLITUDE ON THE HIGHER END OF THE FULL ENVELOPE OF SOLUTION ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC. THIS SHOULD THEN LEAD TO A INCREASED OPPORTUNITY FOR AT LEAST REASONABLY VIGOROUS DOWNSTREAM DIGGING/AMPLITUDE INTO THE WRN AND N-CENTRAL US. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING AMPLE FORECAST SPREAD WITHIN ALL GUIDANCE PREFER AN HPC SOLUTION BLENDING 50-50 THE QUITE AMPLIFIED 00 UTC ECMWF WITH A SOMEWHAT LESS ROBUST 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. SCHICHTEL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Quite the variability in overnight lows last night. My thermometer hit 0.0F. Weather station over in Madison hit -2F...as did Meriden. Guilford hit about +4F. But a lot of other stations stayed above 10F. HVN was 17F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Quite the variability in overnight lows last night. My thermometer hit 0.0F. Weather station over in Madison hit -2F...as did Meriden. Guilford hit about +4F. But a lot of other stations stayed above 10F. HVN was 17F. Only hit 13*, here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I'm bowing out on the storm next week, as I did with the inverted garbage...that is a rain event here. Just like clockwork....get a great storm, clear the storm drains after because the next one will blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Today rocks....only 20.4\14 and cloud cover now.....0 melting ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Today rocks....only 20.4\14 and cloud cover now.....0 melting ftw. Looks like there's some weenie flurries on radar in eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 I'm bowing out on the storm next week, as I did with the inverted garbage...that is a rain event here. Just like clockwork....get a great storm, clear the storm drains after because the next one will blow. That storm might be a great example for those who are afraid of a -NAO...they'll wish we still had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 That storm might be a great example for those who are afraid of a -NAO...they'll wish we still had it. But it doesn't mean snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 But it doesn't mean snow. You can really see the lack of the block on this setup hurting us. Hopefully we find a way to get away with it...but I'm not so sure we do. Its looking pretty ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 That storm might be a great example for those who are afraid of a -NAO...they'll wish we still had it. I like the pattern coming up though with a thorougly +NAO combined with a monster -EPO/+PNA block over Western Canada. 0z ECM looked pretty juicy in the longer range with -16C 850s over the area and multiple shortwaves ejecting out of both the northern stream (Manitoba Mauler) and then later the southern stream (cut-off). Could be an interesting pattern that features lots of overrunning into arctic air. It definitely looks as if the coldest weather of the winter is still ahead with plenty more opportunities for snow, actually very reminiscent of 93-94 with the PV sitting near Hudson Bay/Baffin Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 No more sledding Sledding ban at a middle school http://www.foxnews.com/us/2011/01/14/mass-daredevils-ignore-sledding-ban/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 I like the pattern coming up though with a thorougly +NAO combined with a monster -EPO/+PNA block over Western Canada. 0z ECM looked pretty juicy in the longer range with -16C 850s over the area and multiple shortwaves ejecting out of both the northern stream (Manitoba Mauler) and then later the southern stream (cut-off). Could be an interesting pattern that features lots of overrunning into arctic air. It definitely looks as if the coldest weather of the winter is still ahead with plenty more opportunities for snow, actually very reminiscent of 93-94 with the PV sitting near Hudson Bay/Baffin Island. Yes, we can definitely get some chances in that type of pattern..I was mostly commenting on the next threat's specific setup. Its the type of setup where not having a block hurts more. Some other setups can be better for overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 You can really see the lack of the block on this setup hurting us. Hopefully we find a way to get away with it...but I'm not so sure we do. Its looking pretty ugly. Yeah heights rise pretty quickly in the east with any trough that digs down from Canada. I do like the ridging in the west, but we have to hope that ridging is far enough east to allow for storms to travel just east of us, and not through us, or just to the west. Hopefully some of that cold slides into central and se Canada, and suppresses the storm track a bit. The ensembles hinted at a couple of storms like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 Yeah heights rise pretty quickly in the east with any trough that digs down from Canada. I do like the ridging in the west, but we have to hope that ridging is far enough east to allow for storms to travel just east of us, and not through us, or just to the west. Hopefully some of that cold slides into central and se Canada, and suppresses the storm track a bit. The ensembles hinted at a couple of storms like this. We usually want the troughs to remain fairly shallow in the SWFE/overrunning type setups. This looks like it wants to get pretty deep...which usually isn't good in a no-block pattern....it has to be timed perfectly and that is probably unlikely. With a shallower trough, we can have the cold airmass act a little more as its own block not getting dominated by the synoptic setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Today rocks....only 20.4\14 and cloud cover now.....0 melting ftw. i second that. very wintry day. sugar grain flurries all morning here...the kind only weenie eyes see but dust the car tops and windshields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Well hopefully a little refresher Saturday evening. Maybe coating to an inch for most...perhaps 2 if things work out. The 2" could perhaps be towards the Cape with additional Atlantic moisture brought up on sw winds. Berks perhaps as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Well hopefully a little refresher Saturday evening. Maybe coating to an inch for most...perhaps 2 if things work out. The 2" could perhaps be towards the Cape with additional Atlantic moisture brought up on sw winds. Berks perhaps as well. Yep hopefully waa is a little stronger, and the Atlantic could help, love to se a light se wind develop down here tom afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Quite the variability in overnight lows last night. My thermometer hit 0.0F. Weather station over in Madison hit -2F...as did Meriden. Guilford hit about +4F. But a lot of other stations stayed above 10F. HVN was 17F. ya oxc got down to 7 while nearby dxr -4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 12z GFS looks fugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 12z GFS looks fugly. Eh, it tries to throw a last minute surprise, but that could be gone at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Eh, it tries to throw a last minute surprise, but that could be gone at 18z. Looks similar to the Euro's track, Except it develops the low further north, Mixed bag up here..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Eh, it tries to throw a last minute surprise, but that could be gone at 18z. Eh, and what surprise is that? I see a SLP developing along the trough but by than the damage is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 -40 contours show up @850 after hr 108. Brutal. I'm not buying the surface depiction around the 21st. If the trough comes in as sharply as is shown, we'll see better cyclogenesis. edit. Takes the low from 1000mb over CHH at 168 to 988 at 174 in the GOM. Seems a little off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Pretty active pattern on the GFS with another Miller B'ish SWFE event around the 21'st.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Eh, and what surprise is that? I see a SLP developing along the trough but by than the damage is done. Well it would be a flip to snow for the interior after a little ice. Even you would end as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Well it would be a flip to snow for the interior after a little ice. Even you would end as snow. Can't say that really ever works out in the end for me. Looking forward to tomorrow nights light snows and I'll go from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I haven't seen the 12z GFS ensemble mean yet, but it looks like the 06z wants to develop a secondary earlier for the Tues system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Can't say that really ever works out in the end for me. Looking forward to tomorrow nights light snows and I'll go from there. There is a pretty good s/w that tries to hang back precip as the cold comes in. It would only be a little snow, so it's not a monumental task to do. I'm just saying what it shows. The good news I guess, is that it would be a cold rain which will limit snow pack reduction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 One way or another, this storm system is not going to be nice to us. Personally, I'd rather see this thing phase over the central Plains, and proceed to bomb out over Iowa. At least then we might have a chance for high pressure to linger and lock cold air in place over New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I'm with ray thinking this tues-wed storm is gonna be mostly rain in the CP, but what would be the track/evolution needed for the ski resorts in VT/NH/ME to stay snow for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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