Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

The Pattern beyond Jan 12


ORH_wxman

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 672
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Low goes over ORH lol, which won't happen, but it's really warm.

We'll either see this trend way west, or over the cc canal; my guess is the former because the GEFS are so far west.

What is very disconcerting is that regardless of where the low tracks, the EURO really wants to make this a warm event, which is detracts from the potential for this to evolve into a swfe.....that high moving off the coast is just awful and it kills us.

Antecedent airmass blows.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You have a real Dec 16 fetish. lol

i know lol

worst storm to hit southern canada (the entire corridor from detroit to quebec city, thats like the equivalent of the populated eastern seaboard for us)

since the 1960s, in terms of blizzardness.....

it was a great storm, im glad its remembered in new england as well by some.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm still adjusting to living up here. I got really upset about the tuesday storm...i guess a part of me was still in Philly. Then I realized where I live and got excited...worst case scenario is probably snow to rain followed by a flash freeze and thick crust on the snow pack. Best case scenario, quoting Brian, is a snow bomb. I've seen these things before from a philly perspective and they redevelop east and new england gets a cold solution while we in philly get frustrated and whiny

oh you just moved from Philly?

yeah, you aint in philly anymore lol

welcome to winter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

RevKev won't miss this softball in about 3 hour when he wakes up.

/welker Paul - do you think Kev sleeps in footie jammies ? will he put his best foot forward tomorrow ? Will Dryslot get a foot next week /welker

Ryans' season snowfall forecast for CT has crashed and burned I think huh.... ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro looks awful for the Tuesday storm.

Ascooter how did the ens. lool? Any chance this can trend east just a little?

I was worried about this coming west and now I wonder how far west it can come. It does secondary..so that would help some..but not enough

Ensembles are same track, but a little cooler. I suppose there is still time to pop a secondary further east, somewhere. Models still trying to shuffle around.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

HEading up to Waltham today for a 9:30-3:30 all day training with ADP.. Willbe interesting to go from the powder in CT to the wets snow up there..The weenie in me is looking forward to the drive lol.

Hopefully the Euro trends colder today...I;ll be needing text updates

I'm heading from Mendon to Foxwoods for a mortgage banking expo today... Going down 395, will I see any of the real deep stuff, or about the same as here?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Could you see this turning into an icestorm deal inland or is it either rain or snow to rain?

It probably will be ice for some. I suppose there is enough time for this to be a cutter, but my gut says it goes over sne or probably BOS south..maybe near the canal. Best chance all frozen would be the Berks. I think there is still wiggle room either way.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like even the worst case scenario at this point keeps precip mostly snow up here. Certainly nothing to do damage to a 40" base.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MONDAY MORNING SHIFTS EAST INTO NEW

ENGLAND BY EVENING...AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM

THE PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ON TUESDAY MORNING BOTH

THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE THE LOW CENTER OVER LAKE HURON. THE ECMWF

ALSO FORMS A SECOND LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST. BOTH MODELS THEN

MOVE THE PRIMARY LOW TO NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY TUESDAY

EVENING...WITH THE ECMWF MOVING THE COASTAL LOW TO OFF SOUTHERN

NEW JERSEY AND INTENSIFYING IT. THE GFS DOES NOT FORM A COASTAL

LOW. THE GFS MOVES THE PRIMARY LOW INTO THE MARITIMES NORTH OF

THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER WHILE THE ECMWF TRANSFERS THE ENERGY TO

THE COASTAL LOW AND MOVES IT TO EASTERN MAINE BY WEDNESDAY

MORNING. HPC LOOKS TO BE FAVORING THE ECMWF OVER THE GFS.

AFTER A COLD START...WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES FROM BELOW

ZERO NORTH TO THE MID SINGLES SOUTH...WITH SKIES CLOUDING UP

HIGHS MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE MID TWENTIES.

THE NEW ECMWF IS WARMER AT 850 HPA WITH THE ZERO LINE NORTH OF

THE CANADIAN BORDER TUESDAY EVENING AND THE PLUS 4 ISOTHERM INTO

OUR SOUTHERN THREE COUNTIES. THEREFORE IT APPEARS THAT OVER MOST

OF OUR FORECAST AREA THE STORM WILL START AS SNOW... THEN MIX

WITH RAIN FOR SEVERAL HOURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN

TURN BACK TO SNOW. IN THE MID HUDSON REGION OF NEW YORK...AND

SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY IN CONNECTICUT... THE SNOW WILL

PROBABLY CHANGE TO RAIN FOR SEVERAL HOURS. OVER COOLER REGIONS

SUCH AS THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE

CATSKILLS AND GREEN MTNS OF VERMONT...IT APPEARS THE STORM WILL

BE MOSTLY SNOW.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It probably will be ice for some. I suppose there is enough time for this to be a cutter, but my gut says it goes over sne or probably BOS south..maybe near the canal. Best chance all frozen would be the Berks. I think there is still wiggle room either way.

As long as it stays in the 30's if it has to rain. Anything above that would do some damage to the snowpack

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...