H2Otown_WX Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 GFS ensembles: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 This is def. a SWFE or bust deal, seeing those GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I can already tell at hr 102 that the EURO is gonna hop on the cutter train....trough already neg....hopefully it will have some swfe potential...we'll see in a few. Not a good start for the cp because the high is already moving off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 EURO is absolutely deplorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Low goes over ORH lol, which won't happen, but it's really warm. We'll either see this trend way west, or over the cc canal; my guess is the former because the GEFS are so far west. What is very disconcerting is that regardless of where the low tracks, the EURO really wants to make this a warm event, which is detracts from the potential for this to evolve into a swfe.....that high moving off the coast is just awful and it kills us. Antecedent airmass blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 You have a real Dec 16 fetish. lol i know lol worst storm to hit southern canada (the entire corridor from detroit to quebec city, thats like the equivalent of the populated eastern seaboard for us) since the 1960s, in terms of blizzardness..... it was a great storm, im glad its remembered in new england as well by some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I'm still adjusting to living up here. I got really upset about the tuesday storm...i guess a part of me was still in Philly. Then I realized where I live and got excited...worst case scenario is probably snow to rain followed by a flash freeze and thick crust on the snow pack. Best case scenario, quoting Brian, is a snow bomb. I've seen these things before from a philly perspective and they redevelop east and new england gets a cold solution while we in philly get frustrated and whiny oh you just moved from Philly? yeah, you aint in philly anymore lol welcome to winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 My wife wants to visit her parents in FL and wants me to go. So I negotiated mid March. I theorized wx will be guaranteed good in FL by then. mid march? should have held off till early april, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 RevKev won't miss this softball in about 3 hour when he wakes up. /welker Paul - do you think Kev sleeps in footie jammies ? will he put his best foot forward tomorrow ? Will Dryslot get a foot next week /welker Ryans' season snowfall forecast for CT has crashed and burned I think huh.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Boston.com Weather Reporting Not sure if anyone posted this, sorry if they have. Interesting report about meteorologists and the difficulties in developing a forecast. Hopefully general public will get some insight and realize when it doesn't snow or rain as much as someone said it was, they're no lying bastards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The euro still might give some front end snow and ice to the far interior, but it went west. Def sux for the coast. Now the GFS is better..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The euro still might give some front end snow and ice to the far interior, but it went west. Def sux for the coast. Now the GFS is better..lol. If nothing else, the Euro would give Kevin's car a much needed washing. 7.3/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 GFS seems to be liking the weekend clipper for south areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWCREATURE1 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Pardon my ignorance, but I've never seen the SWFE acronym before. Can someone enlighten me on its meaning? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Pardon my ignorance, but I've never seen the SWFE acronym before. Can someone enlighten me on its meaning? Thanks. Southwest flow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 6z GFS is cold now next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 1-3 tomorrow night..in snowy winters these things seem to overproduce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Euro looks awful for the Tuesday storm. Ascooter how did the ens. lool? Any chance this can trend east just a little? I was worried about this coming west and now I wonder how far west it can come. It does secondary..so that would help some..but not enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 HEading up to Waltham today for a 9:30-3:30 all day training with ADP.. Willbe interesting to go from the powder in CT to the wets snow up there..The weenie in me is looking forward to the drive lol. Hopefully the Euro trends colder today...I;ll be needing text updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Euro looks awful for the Tuesday storm. Ascooter how did the ens. lool? Any chance this can trend east just a little? I was worried about this coming west and now I wonder how far west it can come. It does secondary..so that would help some..but not enough Ensembles are same track, but a little cooler. I suppose there is still time to pop a secondary further east, somewhere. Models still trying to shuffle around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 -7/-11, Cold startthis AM. That's the theme. Look for a colder solution to verify wrt next weeks storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hambone Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 HEading up to Waltham today for a 9:30-3:30 all day training with ADP.. Willbe interesting to go from the powder in CT to the wets snow up there..The weenie in me is looking forward to the drive lol. Hopefully the Euro trends colder today...I;ll be needing text updates I'm heading from Mendon to Foxwoods for a mortgage banking expo today... Going down 395, will I see any of the real deep stuff, or about the same as here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I'm heading from Mendon to Foxwoods for a mortgage banking expo today... Going down 395, will I see any of the real deep stuff, or about the same as here? They got over a foot down there..but it was wet in SE CT for a time..not sure you'll see the real deep stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Ensembles are same track, but a little cooler. I suppose there is still time to pop a secondary further east, somewhere. Models still trying to shuffle around. Could you see this turning into an icestorm deal inland or is it either rain or snow to rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Could you see this turning into an icestorm deal inland or is it either rain or snow to rain? It probably will be ice for some. I suppose there is enough time for this to be a cutter, but my gut says it goes over sne or probably BOS south..maybe near the canal. Best chance all frozen would be the Berks. I think there is still wiggle room either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Looks like even the worst case scenario at this point keeps precip mostly snow up here. Certainly nothing to do damage to a 40" base. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MONDAY MORNING SHIFTS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY EVENING...AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES FROM THE PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ON TUESDAY MORNING BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE THE LOW CENTER OVER LAKE HURON. THE ECMWF ALSO FORMS A SECOND LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST. BOTH MODELS THEN MOVE THE PRIMARY LOW TO NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO BY TUESDAY EVENING...WITH THE ECMWF MOVING THE COASTAL LOW TO OFF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND INTENSIFYING IT. THE GFS DOES NOT FORM A COASTAL LOW. THE GFS MOVES THE PRIMARY LOW INTO THE MARITIMES NORTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER WHILE THE ECMWF TRANSFERS THE ENERGY TO THE COASTAL LOW AND MOVES IT TO EASTERN MAINE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HPC LOOKS TO BE FAVORING THE ECMWF OVER THE GFS. AFTER A COLD START...WITH EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES FROM BELOW ZERO NORTH TO THE MID SINGLES SOUTH...WITH SKIES CLOUDING UP HIGHS MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE MID TWENTIES. THE NEW ECMWF IS WARMER AT 850 HPA WITH THE ZERO LINE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER TUESDAY EVENING AND THE PLUS 4 ISOTHERM INTO OUR SOUTHERN THREE COUNTIES. THEREFORE IT APPEARS THAT OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA THE STORM WILL START AS SNOW... THEN MIX WITH RAIN FOR SEVERAL HOURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN TURN BACK TO SNOW. IN THE MID HUDSON REGION OF NEW YORK...AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY IN CONNECTICUT... THE SNOW WILL PROBABLY CHANGE TO RAIN FOR SEVERAL HOURS. OVER COOLER REGIONS SUCH AS THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS AND GREEN MTNS OF VERMONT...IT APPEARS THE STORM WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 It probably will be ice for some. I suppose there is enough time for this to be a cutter, but my gut says it goes over sne or probably BOS south..maybe near the canal. Best chance all frozen would be the Berks. I think there is still wiggle room either way. As long as it stays in the 30's if it has to rain. Anything above that would do some damage to the snowpack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 How bad is traffic on the pike getting into Waltham around 9:00 am? Anyone up there know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 How bad is traffic on the pike getting into Waltham around 9:00 am? Anyone up there know? There may be a little traffic, but I never drive on that part..just going by what I hear on traffic reports. The 128 interchange can be a cluster F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 As long as it stays in the 30's if it has to rain. Anything above that would do some damage to the snowpack Buy tarps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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