weatherwiz Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 This winter wants to produce.....the pattern is not going to suddenly break down over the next 4 days.....2-4 or 3-6 before the reload Yeah I don't think the pattrern is gonig to break down anytime soon, unless we saw some drastic change within the NAO and it want to go well into the positive territory. It's time to face facts...this winter is gonig to be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 You must be looking at surface temps showing upper 30 s to NVT, we shall see but this seems to me to be a frontender, drizzle, dry slut then freeze deal. No, I looked at 850's....I know better than to look at surface temps....I went off about that earlier today....where have you been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Yeah I don't think the pattrern is gonig to break down anytime soon, unless we saw some drastic change within the NAO and it want to go well into the positive territory. It's time to face facts...this winter is gonig to be epic. We're just timing a pause in the pattern.....and there is a brief pause. Foot steps are getting louder for more winter weather....next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 Yeah I don't think the pattrern is gonig to break down anytime soon, unless we saw some drastic change within the NAO and it want to go well into the positive territory. It's time to face facts...this winter is gonig to be epic. The NAO looks like it might not dive back obscenely negative any time soon, so its definitely a bit of a different pattern we will be going into. The huge AK ridge will bring a lot of arctic air into the CONUS, but with a more neutral to even +NAO look, we'll have plenty of chances to see storms cut west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 You must be looking at surface temps showing upper 30 s to NVT, we shall see but this seems to me to be a frontender, drizzle, dry slut then freeze deal. All you have to do is go back in the thread to the sayings: ... Snow breeds snow ... etc. Well, tried and true is "once any model shows a lakes cutter. It's a lakes cutter." It will rain next week in N Vermont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The NAO looks like it might not dive back obscenely negative any time soon, so its definitely a bit of a different pattern we will be going into. The huge AK ridge will bring a lot of arctic air into the CONUS, but with a more neutral to even +NAO look, we'll have plenty of chances to see storms cut west. I haven't looked at what the NAO is forecasted to be but how positive does it look to go? As long as it stays more neutral we should be fine no? Even then all we would be entering would be a more typical Nina pattern...storm to our west with front end thumps with mixing issues...I don't that that would be the end of the world, as long as the pattern continues to remain active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Was just watching NESN sports Daily and sorry if this goes OT but I've had a 40 and this is hilarious...they just showed Wes Welker's interview today and when asked multiple questions about the Jets multiple answers involved the words "foot" "feet" and "toe"...you HAVE to watch it. His teammates must have said they would give him $500 for every time he works "feet" into his interview Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 His teammates must have said they would give him $500 for every time he works "feet" into his interview One of the funniest things I've ever seen...I think he used the word like 12 times or something...it was between 8-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2011 Author Share Posted January 14, 2011 I haven't looked at what the NAO is forecasted to be but how positive does it look to go? As long as it stays more neutral we should be fine no? Even then all we would be entering would be a more typical Nina pattern...storm to our west with front end thumps with mixing issues...I don't that that would be the end of the world, as long as the pattern continues to remain active. Well if the NAO is neutral-ish, we'll probably be ok, but we still risk storms cutting west without a good block. The extreme arctic airmass in Canada will help out some and act as a bit of a resister to storms going easily into Canada....we'll probably see a lot of SWFE and overrunning type setups. Its probably a much better pattern for Northern New England than we've seen....though we can certainly cash in here as evidenced by the last 2 Nina winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 All you have to do is go back in the thread to the sayings: ... Snow breeds snow ... etc. Well, tried and true is "once any model shows a lakes cutter. It's a lakes cutter." It will rain next week in N Vermont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Well if the NAO is neutral-ish, we'll probably be ok, but we still risk storms cutting west without a good block. The extreme arctic airmass in Canada will help out some and act as a bit of a resister to storms going easily into Canada....we'll probably see a lot of SWFE and overrunning type setups. Its probably a much better pattern for Northern New England than we've seen....though we can certainly cash in here as evidenced by the last 2 Nina winters. I had my HECS.....SWFE away, in face, that would be the receipe for a perfect winter. Get the HECS, have a SWFE barrage as a halftime show, then coastal bomb fire works return for the grand finale in March. SWFE away..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Well if the NAO is neutral-ish, we'll probably be ok, but we still risk storms cutting west without a good block. The extreme arctic airmass in Canada will help out some and act as a bit of a resister to storms going easily into Canada....we'll probably see a lot of SWFE and overrunning type setups. Its probably a much better pattern for Northern New England than we've seen....though we can certainly cash in here as evidenced by the last 2 Nina winters. As long as we can continue to see an active storm pattern I'd be more than fine with it, as much as I would love to see more blocking to make for more coastal storms. No matter what happens with the rest of the way I'll be completely satisfied with this winter. To see the second 20''+ storm of my life was incredible, after that happened in 2006 I had no clue when, or if I'd ever see that again. It's not like SWFE are awful here, I've done fairly well with them in the past and as long as there continues to be a decent snowpack here I think that should help even more with keeping the cold air locked in longer....as long as the low levels or mid levels don't torch like crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 No, I looked at 850's....I know better than to look at surface temps....I went off about that earlier today....where have you been. Working my fookin ass off. I just posted 12-1 ratio per Cocorahs near me, man how does Staffordville get 29 inches and a W/e well over two inches while below them has 24 with a 1 . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I had my HECS.....SWFE away, in face, that would be the receipe for a perfect winter. Get the HECS, have a SWFE barrage as a halftime show, then coastal bomb fire works return for the grand finale in March. SWFE away..... I love wh3n we think alike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I hope we can get a cold and snowy March for a change. It's been too long..... March is a useless piece of garbage if you don't get late season winter events. Too early for Spring activities so it might as well snow.... I had my HECS.....SWFE away, in face, that would be the receipe for a perfect winter. Get the HECS, have a SWFE barrage as a halftime show, then coastal bomb fire works return for the grand finale in March. SWFE away..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 BTW... you are within 1.4" of me. LOL I'm at 36.9" for the season officially now (though a little LES tonight could have added several tenths). Once again it won't let me add updated snowfall to my signature... tells me it's too long. I had my HECS.....SWFE away, in face, that would be the receipe for a perfect winter. Get the HECS, have a SWFE barrage as a halftime show, then coastal bomb fire works return for the grand finale in March. SWFE away..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I love wh3n we think alike. Imagine what 2007-08 or 2008-09 would have been like with a HECS thrown in....Christ, sign me up.....add to it the fact that we don't torch right after the HECS and I'm not sure what more you can ask for. I hope we can get a cold and snowy March for a change. It's been too long..... March is a useless piece of garbage if you don't get late season winter events. Too early for Spring activities so it might as well snow.... Rick, I promise March will rock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 BTW... you are within 1.4" of me. LOL I'm at 36.9" for the season officially now (though a little LES tonight could have added several tenths). Yea...you, Will and I are neck-and-neck, but you have nickled and dimed your way there, as opposed to Will and I, who benefited from a couple biggies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Imagine what 2007-08 or 2008-09 would have been like with a HECS thrown in....Christ, sign me up.....add to it the fact that we don't torch right after the HECS and I'm not sure what more you can ask for. EASILY a top 10 winter here at BDL...without a doubt, especially 2007-2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 EASILY a top 10 winter here at BDL...without a doubt, especially 2007-2008. I think you mean 2008-09....2007-08 wasn't as good for sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I think you mean 2008-09....2007-08 wasn't as good for sne. Yeah you're right, I was looking at ALB's total for 2007-2008 instead of BDL's...anyways, actually 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 totals were very similar for BDL...it would have taken a about 22-25'' more to make it top 10 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Ryans' season snowfall forecast for CT has crashed and burned I think huh.... EASILY a top 10 winter here at BDL...without a doubt, especially 2007-2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Yeah you're right, I was looking at ALB's total for 2007-2008 instead of BDL's...anyways, actually 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 totals were very similar for BDL...it would have taken a about 22-25'' more to make it top 10 here. Really...are you sure; that would suprise me. I thought 2008-09 was much better for CT, as 2007-08 was very "N of MA pike" dependant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiley1 Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 You must be looking at surface temps showing upper 30 s to NVT, we shall see but this seems to me to be a frontender, drizzle, dry slut then freeze deal. The only dry slot I like is after a heavy front end dump just before the warm air can kick in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 It's funny how warm the euro op is. I find it hard to believe 850 0C temps would be in VT with a BM track. The GFS op would be pretty warm. 06z seemed a little colder, so lets hope it continues. Yea, that is what I was just commenting on when Ginx thought I was talking 2m temps....I wa shocked it was so warm at H85. I think I have a chance to close the gap on Kev over the next couple of weeks with a perdominately swfe pattern possibly taking shape.....finally maybe what we expected to see this winter. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Ryans' season snowfall forecast for CT has crashed and burned I think huh.... Do did mine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Really...are you sure; that would suprise me. I thought 2008-09 was much better for CT, as 2007-08 was very "N of MA pike" dependant. 2007-2008 had 47.5'' and 2008-2009 had 45.5'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Really...are you sure; that would suprise me. I thought 2008-09 was much better for CT, as 2007-08 was very "N of MA pike" dependant. My 07-08 and 08-09 totals were not that much different...35" in 07-08 and 42" in 08-09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 2007-2008 had 47.5'' and 2008-2009 had 45.5'' My 07-08 and 08-09 totals were not that much different...35" in 07-08 and 42" in 08-09. I guess N CT had similar totals, but I know that it was much better for sw CT and NYC.....thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I guess N CT had similar totals, but I know that it was much better for s CT and NYC.....thx. 2008-2009 was decent for NYC, but 2007-2008 completely sucked, they just finished above 11'' 2007-2008 was at least average for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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