Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 meh GFS not really impressive with the clipper at all...neither is the NAM...likely just some snow showers with probably some very minor accumulations for some, more likely across NNE and N. MA. 7h says 1-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Some pretty significant differences in H5 between the GFS/NAM through 78 hours, especially across the west...could be significant down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 7h says 1-3 wow...H7 is pretty damn juicy...that's pretty impressive actually. Probably wouldn't take much lift at all to generate some heavier pockets of snow squalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 7h says 1-3 No it doesn't. H7 RH is overcast. No lift...no vv's in the GFS to wring out any more than flurries imho. A leaf of overcast with possible snow showers would be my forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 much colder solution tonight. great to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 FWIW, I was watching TWC and a LR forecaster was on and he said it looked like the PAC Jet was going to weaken towards the end of the month meaning less storminess in the U.S. overall.. Why? A robust Nina is ongoing. Sure it may happen but THAT will only INCREASE our snow chances by allowing Miller B's to go to town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 No it doesn't. H7 RH is overcast. No lift...no vv's in the GFS to wring out any more than flurries imho. A leaf of overcast with possible snow showers would be my forecast. H7 looks juicy...no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I see what you mean...very little in the way of VV's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Why? A robust Nina is ongoing. Sure it may happen but THAT will only INCREASE our snow chances by allowing Miller B's to go to town. So you're saying it would slow the entire flow down which would give Miller B's a better chance to re-develop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Waiting to see what 925mb temps show but it looks like next week could be a very nice front end thump and before the true WAA can kick it we get mostly snow...but not sure what 925mb looks like...waiting for twisterdata to get that far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 So you're saying it would slow the entire flow down which would give Miller B's a better chance to re-develop? Yes. Greater PNA would occur which is always better for storms. I think that LR guy must be cracked other than to say the storms would less likely slam into the west coast below the PAC NW. However with greater amplification, the storms would dig further and enable a vortmax to ignite something big provided we have some blocking. Cold appears a given. I guess he meant it would be less likely to have these west to east bowling balls but who cares? We're SNE/NNE, big azz Miller B's are money very often for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 My wife wants to visit her parents in FL and wants me to go. So I negotiated mid March. I theorized wx will be guaranteed good in FL by then. Don't go the third week, from my July thread at Eastern This year SNE prepare for.a cold severe KU with all the associated ramifications two days either side of March 19 th 2011 GINXYS GALE 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Yes. Greater PNA would occur which is always better for storms. I think that LR guy must be cracked other than to say the storms would less likely slam into the west coast below the PAC NW. However with greater amplification, the storms would dig further and enable a vortmax to ignite something big provided we have some blocking. Cold appears a given. I guess he meant it would be less likely to have these west to east bowling balls but who cares? We're SNE/NNE, big azz Miller B's are money very often for us. Lol yeah I guess he is cracked he said it would translate to the eastern U.S. not having storminess either.. I guess if we were to get the PV overhead that could present some problems in terms of generating storminess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Don't go the third week, from my July thread at Eastern This year SNE prepare for.a cold severe KU with all the associated ramifications two days either side of March 19 th 2011 GINXYS GALE 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Lol yeah I guess he is cracked he said it would translate to the eastern U.S. not having storminess either.. I guess if we were to get the PV overhead that could present some problems in terms of generating storminess. I think were well past that happening. The rest of the way is going to rock for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The GFS is really sad, changes so much at this 120-72 range and then still misses the end game. I know you said you will not look but it is absurdly different in evolution each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 The GFS is really sad, changes so much at this 120-72 range and then still misses the end game. I know you said you will not look but it is absurdly different in evolution each run. I read this post right after looking. It's a sickness.......looks like a swfe to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Can I say I think we see a decent front end thump of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Was just watching NESN sports Daily and sorry if this goes OT but I've had a 40 and this is hilarious...they just showed Wes Welker's interview today and when asked multiple questions about the Jets multiple answers involved the words "foot" "feet" and "toe"...you HAVE to watch it. Anyways... Yesterday I saw "almost two "feet" of snow...most of the region saw nearly two "feet" of snow...or pretty close to two "feet" of snow". Even in SE CT they saw close to or over a "foot" of snow. Even though BDL over measured on the 12/26 blizzard as they recorded13.3'''' of snow which was over a "foot" this was the second storm this season in which they had at least a "foot" of snow. While unlikely, right now at least, I hope next week BDL gets it's third event with at least a "foot". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 TURN ON NESEN NOW...they are gonig to show it again...YOU HAVE TO WATCH IT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Was just watching NESN sports Daily and sorry if this goes OT but I've had a 40 and this is hilarious...they just showed Wes Welker's interview today and when asked multiple questions about the Jets multiple answers involved the words "foot" "feet" and "toe"...you HAVE to watch it. Anyways... Yesterday I saw "almost two "feet" of snow...most of the region saw nearly two "feet" of snow...or pretty close to two "feet" of snow". Even in SE CT they saw close to or over a "foot" of snow. Even though BDL over measured on the 12/26 blizzard as they recorded13.3'''' of snow which was over a "foot" this was the second storm this season in which they had at least a "foot" of snow. While unlikely, right now at least, I hope next week BDL gets it's third event with at least a "foot". Put the 40 down Paul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Put the 40 down Paul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Can I say I think we see a decent front end thump of snow? Most certainly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Gotta love the 276 hr GFS: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_276m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I read this post right after looking. It's a sickness.......looks like a swfe to me. Yea it is, yea but the GFS is fooled up, after looking at it closely temp wise it noses in a warm layer at 925 and looks sleety after snow then drizzle, immediate refreeze. NBD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 GFS looks better than the EURO now; the EURO is a disaster for the cp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Most certainly... I'm feeling it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 Gotta love the 276 hr GFS: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_276m.gif Biblical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 GFS looks better than the EURO now; the EURO is a disaster for the cp. You must be looking at surface temps showing upper 30 s to NVT, we shall see but this seems to me to be a frontender, drizzle, dry slut then freeze deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 14, 2011 Share Posted January 14, 2011 I'm feeling it! This winter wants to produce.....the pattern is not going to suddenly break down over the next 4 days.....2-4 or 3-6 before the reload Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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