ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 With so much focus on the impending 1/12 event, we really do not have a thread to discuss anything beyond that. Right now it appears that there will some sharp thermal gradients with very cold air in Canada at times trying to spill over NE. The heart of the cold looks to be over the Canadian Prairies and the upper plains of the US with a mean trough position over the central US...this will put us on the eastern portion of the thermal boundaries...and could offer up several chances at SW flow events or gradient type storms. Euro shows a weak overrunning storm around D6 with a more significant storm around D7-8...that one as modeled has snow changing to sleet/ice written all over it. Its far enough out that all options remain on the table. It looks like a cold storm though with high pressure N of the lakes extending over into Quebec...even if the mid-levels try to warm. Euro then shows another possibility after D10...it definitely looks like quite an active pattern but certainly a lot more opportunity to taint ptype. It could end up being a very fun pattern though if we can stay on the colder side of most of these gradients...ala 1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Discuss the clipper snows over the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masonwoods Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 With so much focus on the impending 1/12 event, we really do not have a thread to discuss anything beyond that. Right now it appears that there will some sharp thermal gradients with very cold air in Canada at times trying to spill over NE. The heart of the cold looks to be over the Canadian Prairies and the upper plains of the US with a mean trough position over the central US...this will put us on the eastern portion of the thermal boundaries...and could offer up several chances at SW flow events or gradient type storms. Euro shows a weak overrunning storm around D6 with a more significant storm around D7-8...that one as modeled has snow changing to sleet/ice written all over it. Its far enough out that all options remain on the table. It looks like a cold storm though with high pressure N of the lakes extending over into Quebec...even if the mid-levels try to warm. Euro then shows another possibility after D10...it definitely looks like quite an active pattern but certainly a lot more opportunity to taint ptype. It could end up being a very fun pattern though if we can stay on the colder side of most of these gradients...ala 1994. Can you comment on what you think the conditions will be for the Pats game on Sunday afternnon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Discuss the clipper snows over the weekend Looks too far north for SNE to get much...maybe an inch at most...NNE has a better shot at 2-4. GFS is a little further south so there could be a little more if that verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 11, 2011 Author Share Posted January 11, 2011 Can you comment on what you think the conditions will be for the Pats game on Sunday afternnon? Looks cold and dry as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 With a mean trough position like that we should continue to see quite an active weather pattern for the foreseeable future! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Concerned the upcoming pattern may get a bit too warm for us coastal dwellers. Things looking a bit more interesting for interior folks. But whatever...I'll worry about that after tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Definitely an overrunning pattern that's been signaled for a while. This may be when NNE plays catchup to us, but it does offer wintry solutions. The euro ensemble continue to have a high over the Midwest with a boundary just offshore in the 11-15 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 94. Pattern heavy heavy low level cold, very impressive look to next week, trending colder as the pattern has been lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I'm going to owe Kevin at the GTG. Happily I might add. This is one rockin's winter....ASOUT (as some of us thought). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 As far as the GFS is concerned it will be incredibly cold and REALLY REALLY sunny out west. I think the 0z gfs had the biggest high pressure i've ever seen settled over the western US. Verbatim there wouldn't be a cloud in the sky from Cali to the missisippi for like two or three days. I mean it could happen but IDK... moderation seems likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Euro quick hitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Ok what's the scoop on the Euro precip wise for next week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Ok what's the scoop on the Euro precip wise for next week.. Take a wild guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Euro looks like an interior snow, with a mix to sn possible near the coast. The only thing that's a red flag, is that the ensembles are warmer. It looks like a nasty mixed precip event at the very least. It drops near and just over an inch qpf over sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Euro looks like an interior snow, with a mix to sn possible near the coast. The only thing that's a red flag, is that the ensembles are warmer. It looks like a nasty mixed precip event at the very least. It drops near and just over an inch qpf over sne. Tkx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 I'm going to owe Kevin at the GTG. Happily I might add. This is one rockin's winter....ASOUT (as some of us thought). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 12, 2011 Share Posted January 12, 2011 Possibly entering a pattern of repeating 8 inchers on a 3-4 days cycle... "maybe"... PNA on the rise with a -AO offers deep scenarios in the east as well. CMC and NOGAPS are the junket models but they are flagging 1-3" this weekend, then the NOGAPS actually has the Euro coastal storm next week interestingly enough. Pattern is not going to be inactive post this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Possibly entering a pattern of repeating 8 inchers on a 3-4 days cycle... "maybe"... PNA on the rise with a -AO offers deep scenarios in the east as well. CMC and NOGAPS are the junket models but they are flagging 1-3" this weekend, then the NOGAPS actually has the Euro coastal storm next week interestingly enough. Pattern is not going to be inactive post this event. Welcome to 1993-94....among my all time favs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I hope next week is somewhat frozen. A little nervous it could be ugly. Euro op would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I hope next week is somewhat frozen. A little nervous it could be ugly. Euro op would be nice. What does the 12z ECM look like down here? Would my house at 350' elevation in the northern suburbs have a shot of staying frozen? Can the southern stream dig deeper and give us an earlier coastal transfer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I hope next week is somewhat frozen. A little nervous it could be ugly. Euro op would be nice. Trend from cutter to colder is favorable on Euro, I mean three days ago we were looking at upper40 s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 all this new snow pack is not going to have an impact on temps on this comming storm tue-wed ? esp if it tracks east of here? I thought I read somewhere it does effect it under certain conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Nam has 2-4 for clipper flipper Sunday, take it and put it in the bank, all snow is good snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 This looks more and more like a gradient pattern for a time. Those are my favorites because our latitude really helps. 1993-94. Tonight's GFS advertises this. And the timing is such that my 1/18 flight to TPA would be delayed or canceled. Which means I may not have to go because if it's an event of size (the snow/ice), 24 hour cancellation means its not worth attending this meeting...of which I'm a principal...oy vey but snow first! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Didn't think the GFS looked all that impressive with the clipper system but from Steve it sounds like the NAM is a bit beefier. As far as next week goes this certainly looks interesting right now, this almost screams overrunning potential. I know right now through 138 HR the GFS has some strong WAA occurring in the lower-levels but honestly I wouldn't bit at that just yet, still have that cold high just to our north and with the decent snowpack that has been built it totally wouldn't surprise me if as we drew much closer we start to see a more colder solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 GFS gets rid of everyone's snow with heavy rain up and down the east coast. Granted it will change next run http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_150l.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_156l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Didn't think the GFS looked all that impressive with the clipper system but from Steve it sounds like the NAM is a bit beefier. As far as next week goes this certainly looks interesting right now, this almost screams overrunning potential. I know right now through 138 HR the GFS has some strong WAA occurring in the lower-levels but honestly I wouldn't bit at that just yet, still have that cold high just to our north and with the decent snowpack that has been built it totally wouldn't surprise me if as we drew much closer we start to see a more colder solution. This screams ice storm with a 1030mb high over Quebec, under which sit -30C 2m temps on the 120hr GFS, and a low cutting to our west with a trough anchored over the OH Valley. Would be an interesting set-up for overrunning snows followed by ice, perhaps eventually changing to rain in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 GFS gets rid of everyone's snow with heavy rain up and down the east coast. Granted it will change next run http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_150l.gif It would take alot more than that to get rid of this water laden 1-3 feet of snow across New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 GFS has a front end snow, to ice, to rain scenario...certainly possible. Also possible it gets squeezed south of us. But this storm definitely has more of a threat of cutting west than this last one did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.