lwg8tr0514 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Z Living in extreme southern Allegheny County, I'll hopefully be spared somewhat from the ice. It'll turn to rain sooner here. Of course, even if I get half of that .5, it'll still be trouble before the changeover. Then some flooding may become a possibility after that. I would not count on any if much rain, maybe some freezing rain as the WWA hits. The NWS is making people aware this is a dangerous scenario not to be discounted because one model run or another shows an arbitrary 0 line somewhere on a map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawx1 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm up here in New Castle. Very worried about the ice and freezing rain. I am in nursing school and have to report @ 6 am both Tuesday and Wednesday. They never close my school. That's way before they start with road salt/plowing. Hope we don't lose power either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I would not count on any if much rain, maybe some freezing rain as the WWA hits. The NWS is making people aware this is a dangerous scenario not to be discounted because one model run or another shows an arbitrary 0 line somewhere on a map. Yeah, the GFS looks far less menacing with ice totals though on the 18z run. Not sure which one will end up being right. I do think with that initial slug most everyone will be frozen, it just depends how much qpf we actually get. The second slug will likely be rain for most of us in SWPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I would not count on any if much rain, maybe some freezing rain as the WWA hits. The NWS is making people aware this is a dangerous scenario not to be discounted because one model run or another shows an arbitrary 0 line somewhere on a map. Well, my local forecast from the NWS was snow and freezing rain tonight, then freezing rain tomorrow morning changing to rain by 11AM. After that, it said rain through Tuesday night, and rain mixing with snow Wednesday. Right now, the NWS site is having problems because it's only showing the county wide forecasts which is a very general forecast. What I end up getting at this end of the county, and what someone gets in say Warrendale, will be very different. And I can guarantee you that even the North Hills, for example, will hold on to the ice longer than I will. But, I did say that this is going to be a problem even if my ice totals won't be as high as folks to the north of me. I'm not discounting this at all. Just looking at all of the possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 How fast the dewpoint rises without precip falling will be key. If we reach full saturation at 30F and above, then any ZR should be short lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 How fast the dewpoint rises without precip falling will be key. If we reach full saturation at 30F and above, then any ZR should be short lived. I agree, dew points around the area now seem to be in the upper teens to low 20s with temps right around freezing. I think the clear skies we had all day really allowed the surface to warm more than foretasted then the clouds moved in right around sunset. Had it been overcast all day we might not have made it much above the upper 20s for highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I was just out and last hour had some light sleet and light freezing drizzle. I don't think we will see any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I was just out and last hour had some light sleet and light freezing drizzle. I don't think we will see any snow. Yeah...that typically happens...forecast for snow in these events but always turn over to ice right away. I think the rush tomorrow will suck though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 i noticed the dews are increasing, they're up to 22 at agc and 21 at pit temps are holding steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sb440 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm up here in New Castle. Very worried about the ice and freezing rain. I am in nursing school and have to report @ 6 am both Tuesday and Wednesday. They never close my school. That's way before they start with road salt/plowing. Hope we don't lose power either. your my neighbor.. ya hope we dont get as much fzr as they predict. but ya never know what could happen in w penn. just hope the gfs is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Time to start looking at the rapid update models. The hrrr has trended somewhat colder in the past run. It hasn't been doing too bad at all the last few storms, and this is one where we're going to need as much info on trends as possible. Heres an idea of what its showing with the simulated radar And here is the precip type for that period of time Edit: Actually i guess this would be the precip type for that period.. Idk if its acounting for the last hour or what. Thats what I'm assuming. Regardless, be careful out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Jeff says mix to drizzle to rain tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 First shot looks juicy in Ohio. Will have to see how far north the heaviest axis goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Going to be depressing tomorrow night seeing all the precip move in while we sit at 32.5 with plain rain and miss out on getting snow. NAM showed close to an inch of qpf that will fall as plain rain, wonder if there will be any snow pack left by Wednesday afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Going to be depressing tomorrow night seeing all the precip move in while we sit at 32.5 with plain rain and miss out on getting snow. NAM showed close to an inch of qpf that will fall as plain rain, wonder if there will be any snow pack left by Wednesday afternoon? yeah, its kinda depressing, but it's better than 1" of ZR. and the 0z GFS is wamer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Going to be depressing tomorrow night seeing all the precip move in while we sit at 32.5 with plain rain and miss out on getting snow. NAM showed close to an inch of qpf that will fall as plain rain, wonder if there will be any snow pack left by Wednesday afternoon? There probably won't be in my area. I'm supposed to get rain tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night with a mix on Wednesday. Overnight: Freezing rain and sleet. Low around 26. East wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total nighttime sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Tuesday: Freezing rain and sleet before 11am, then rain or freezing rain likely between 11am and noon, then rain likely after noon. High near 34. South wind at 5 mph becoming north. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Tuesday Night: Rain. Low around 32. East wind between 7 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Wednesday: Rain likely before 3pm, then rain and snow likely between 3pm and 4pm, then snow likely after 4pm. Some thunder is also possible. Cloudy, with a high near 41. Breezy, with a south wind 9 to 12 mph becoming southwest between 19 and 22 mph. Winds could gust as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Wednesday Night: Snow showers likely, mainly before 7pm. Cloudy, with a low around 14. West wind between 14 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday: A chance of snow showers, mainly before noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 24. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 14. Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 33. Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Saturday: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39. Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Monday: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Going to be depressing tomorrow night seeing all the precip move in while we sit at 32.5 with plain rain and miss out on getting snow. NAM showed close to an inch of qpf that will fall as plain rain, wonder if there will be any snow pack left by Wednesday afternoon? This whole winter has been depressing so far. Hope something changes in Feb and we get a least one good storm. After last year, I was hoping we could get a couple years in a row with bigger storms. We shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 This whole winter has been depressing so far. Hope something changes in Feb and we get a least one good storm. After last year, I was hoping we could get a couple years in a row with bigger storms. We shall see... We had 7 years of these types of near miss storms. Then we had our biggie last year. Hopefully it's not back to missing again and again for the coming years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 We had 7 years of these types of near miss storms. Then we had our biggie last year. Hopefully it's not back to missing again and again for the coming years. As Mike Tomlin would say, "It is what it is". That's the way it is around here. I hope I'm still around to see our next "big one" in 2017! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 As Mike Tomlin would say, "It is what it is". That's the way it is around here. I hope I'm still around to see our next "big one" in 2017! The detour sign will bring us an 8+ storm in Feb. I can feel it. If not, I'll take an early Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The detour sign will bring us an 8+ storm in Feb. I can feel it. If not, I'll take an early Spring. Hope you're right. You have to give me some credit if it happens for first bringing up the detour sign the other day. If we don't get one, then I'll take the blame. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Hope you're right. You have to give me some credit if it happens for first bringing up the detour sign the other day. If we don't get one, then I'll take the blame. lol Yes, we have to thank 2001kx from Clearfield for supplying it. I couldn't find it. You are now responsible either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I have some light freezing rain moving through right now. No snow for me until maybe Wednesday afternoon it looks like. All ice and rain in my area until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Oh well, i'll take the free car wash tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sunnykay Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Light ZR here. Penn Township near Harrison City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Actually looking at the radar, we might escape with just some freezing drizzle in spots overnight. By the time the main storm hits tommorow, most of us will be above freezing. Not to lessen the possibility of hazardous conditions, but personally I think most warnings and advisories will be dropped by mid morning for the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Had heavy rain since 3 AM, and about 15 seconds of sleet. that said, my driveway is a sheet of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 A little icy in Bethel this morning but not too bad. Roads are in pretty decent shape. Parking lots are icy but roads are fine. I actually saw a little bit of lightning this morning. I didn't expect to see that until possibly tomorrow according to my forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 A little icy in Bethel this morning but not too bad. Roads are in pretty decent shape. Parking lots are icy but roads are fine. I actually saw a little bit of lightning this morning. I didn't expect to see that until possibly tomorrow according to my forecast. Yeah, same here. Light glaze on sidewalks but roads are fine. Didn't even have to scrape the car off as it was all just slushy. Temps seemed to warm up just enough to get past the danger point here. I still think the greater than anticipated warmup yesterday also played a role in saving us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yeah, same here. Light glaze on sidewalks but roads are fine. Didn't even have to scrape the car off as it was all just slushy. Temps seemed to warm up just enough to get past the danger point here. I still think the greater than anticipated warmup yesterday also played a role in saving us. I hear ya, hoping to stay ALL rain or snow on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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