Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Pittsburgh, PA Thread


meatwad

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Dare I say it, SOUTHERN TREND? Trout seems to have a good handle on climo.

At work so I can't really look too much...

But NAM looks much colder...850's actually look like they hang close or just north of the area for some of the heavy precip. And this is typically a "warmer model", right?. There may be some other warm layers though. Maybe we get more sleet than expected?

Maybe this thing gets an occluded front which stops some of the WAA.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

At work so I can't really look too much...

But NAM looks much colder...850's actually look like they hang close or just north of the area for some of the heavy precip. And this is typically a "warmer model", right?. There may be some other warm layers though. Maybe we get more sleet than expected?

Maybe this thing gets an occluded front which stops some of the WAA.

If we do stay cold I hope we could get more sleet instead of frz rain.

I remember a sleet storm back in the 70's where we had sleet most of the day and it turned to big snowflakes at night.

At least with sleet you can drive easier in it and it doesn't stick to the trees and power lines.

We do seem to get more fzr rain than sleet anymore so it may not even matter.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

At work so I can't really look too much...

But NAM looks much colder...850's actually look like they hang close or just north of the area for some of the heavy precip. And this is typically a "warmer model", right?. There may be some other warm layers though. Maybe we get more sleet than expected?

Maybe this thing gets an occluded front which stops some of the WAA.

This is a possibility. The storm is modeled to occlude to our West.

Also, we actually have a fresh arctic air mass with a High to the North in almost perfect position to funnel low level cold air down. Climo tells me the warm air will win in our area, but this storm is a bit different than what we typically see. Verbatim 12z NAM gives us .25 of ZR. Even during the heaviest precip we are precariously close to freezing per the Bufkit text and its not until after we get into the dry slot with just drizzle that we get close to 40 before the cold front sweeps through and cools us off again.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If we do stay cold I hope we could get more sleet instead of frz rain.

I remember a sleet storm back in the 70's where we had sleet most of the day and it turned to big snowflakes at night.

At least with sleet you can drive easier in it and it doesn't stick to the trees and power lines.

We do seem to get more fzr rain than sleet anymore so it may not even matter.

What are the chances and not weenie-casting here that we get a 50-75 mile jump south we are most if not all snow?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

1055 AM EST MON JAN 31 2011

OHZ039-040-048>050-PAZ021-029-073>076-WVZ001-002-010000-

/O.UPG.KPBZ.WS.A.0003.110201T0000Z-110202T1500Z/

/O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.W.0003.110201T0000Z-110201T2200Z/

TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-ALLEGHENY-

WASHINGTON-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE-

FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW PHILADELPHIA...DOVER...

UHRICHSVILLE...CARROLLTON...COSHOCTON...CADIZ...HOPEDALE...

STEUBENVILLE...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...WASHINGTON...CANONSBURG...

DONORA...CALIFORNIA...CHARLEROI...MONONGAHELA...MCMURRAY...

GREENSBURG...NEW KENSINGTON...JEANNETTE...LATROBE...MONESSEN...

LIGONIER...DONEGAL...NEW FLORENCE...ACME...CHAMPION...UNIONTOWN...

CONNELLSVILLE...POINT MARION...NORMALVILLE...FARMINGTON...

OHIOPYLE...MARKLEYSBURG...TORONTO...WEIRTON

1055 AM EST MON JAN 31 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM

EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WARNING FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE AND SNOW...WHICH

IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST TUESDAY. THE

WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* ACCUMULATION: ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF ICE. 1 TO 3 INCHES

OF SNOW.

* TIMING: LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TONIGHT...MIX TO SLEET AND THEN

FREEZING RAIN BY TUESDAY MORNING. FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED

TUESDAY. A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY...BUT MAY

MIX BACK TO FREEZING RAIN BRIEFLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS: ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATION ON UNTREATED ROADS WILL

LEAD TO HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. ACCUMULATING ICE MAY

CAUSE TREE LIMBS AND WIRES TO BREAK... MAKING POWER OUTAGES

POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...

SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL

VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. REPORT YOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS

TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL

FREE...1-877-633-6772.

&&

$$

Link to comment
Share on other sites

They just changed mine.....

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

1055 AM EST MON JAN 31 2011

MDZ001-OHZ041-PAZ007>009-013>016-020-022-023-010000-

/O.UPG.KPBZ.WS.A.0003.110201T0000Z-110202T1500Z/

/O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.W.0003.110201T0000Z-110202T1500Z/

GARRETT-COLUMBIANA-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-

JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...GRANTSVILLE...

EAST LIVERPOOL...SALEM...COLUMBIANA...EAST PALESTINE...

WELLSVILLE...CALCUTTA...SHARON...HERMITAGE...GROVE CITY...

GREENVILLE...FARRELL...OIL CITY...FRANKLIN...SUGARCREEK...

TIONESTA...NEW CASTLE...ELLWOOD CITY...BUTLER...ZELIENOPLE...

CLARION...PUNXSUTAWNEY...BROOKVILLE...REYNOLDSVILLE...BROCKWAY...

ALIQUIPPA...BEAVER FALLS...AMBRIDGE...MONACA...BEAVER...

KITTANNING...FORD CITY...LEECHBURG...FREEPORT...APOLLO...INDIANA

1055 AM EST MON JAN 31 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM

EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WARNING FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE...WHICH

IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY. THE

WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* ACCUMULATION: ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF ICE. 3 TO 7

INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING: LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT. ACCUMULATING SNOW

TUESDAY... MAY MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE

AFTERNOON. THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO

WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS: ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATION ON UNTREATED ROADS WILL

LEAD TO HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. ACCUMULATING HEAVY WET

SNOW AND ICE MAY CAUSE TREE LIMBS AND WIRES TO BREAK... MAKING

POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How is everyone on temps so far this afternoon? I went outside and it felt pretty warm so checked my Weather Underground and it was showing almost 34 degrees in New Kensington. Thats a good bit warmer than forecast. Wonder if that will have any effects on how things play out tonight? Dew point is only 6 though so I would image once precip starts falling temps will fall of quickly for awhile.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

How is everyone on temps so far this afternoon? I went outside and it felt pretty warm so checked my Weather Underground and it was showing almost 34 degrees in New Kensington. Thats a good bit warmer than forecast. Wonder if that will have any effects on how things play out tonight? Dew point is only 6 though so I would image once precip starts falling temps will fall of quickly for awhile.

That thermometer must be sitting in the sun...temps in PA are below 30.

Bowman (ch 2) and Ivory (ch 4) seem to be parroting the NAM re: timing and qpf.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

137 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011

VALID JAN 31/1200 UTC THRU FEB 04/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR

INGEST...

12Z MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND FINAL PREFERENCES

...UPPER TROUGH FORMING OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS THROUGH THE

PERIOD...

PREFERENCE: GEFS MEAN OR ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN

THE GFS WEAKENS AND EJECTS THE LOW INTO THE PLAINS FASTER THAN THE

NAM/ECMWF AND IS OUT OF PHASE WITH ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHILE

THE NAM/ECMWF DEPICTS A MORE CONSOLIDATED CENTER LINGERING LATER

IN THE PERIOD AND POSSIBLY DRIFTING AS FAR SOUTH AS MEXICO. 00Z

SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS SHOW MUCH GREATER SPREAD HOWEVER...AND GIVEN

THE RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY REPRESENTED BY CURRENT GUIDANCE...THE

RECOMMENDATION IS LEAN MOST HEAVILY UPON THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS

SUCH AS THE GEFS OR ECMWF ENSEMBLES.

...CYCLONE MOVING FROM THE S. PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE

PERIOD...

PREFERENCE: BEFORE 12Z WED...2/3 GFS TO 1/3 GEFS MEAN

AFTER 12Z WED...1/3 EACH GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN

THE NAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF THROUGH MOST OF THE

PERIOD WITH ITS SLOWER SPEED CONSIDERED DOUBTFUL DUE TO WORSE

INITIALIZATION OF THE EVOLVING TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA.

OTHERWISE...THE NEW ECMWF HAS TRENDED FASTER WITH ITS

NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND TOWARD NEW

ENGLAND WHICH IS ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN ITS PRIOR RUN AND THE GFS.

THUS...EARLIER PREFERENCES FOR A GFS/GEFS MEAN SOLUTION WEIGHTED

TOWARD THE DETERMINISTIC GFS EARLY AND GEFS MEAN LATE...REMAINS

VALID. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS TO INCLUDE A SMALL AMOUNT OF THE

ECMWF SOLUTION LATE IN THE PERIOD TO REPRESENT A SLIGHT INCREASE

IN CONFIDENCE OVER NEW ENGLAND.

...LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST

THROUGH TUESDAY...

PREFERENCE: EQUAL BLEND GFS/ECMWF

FORECASTS AT THE SURFACE ARE SIMILAR. HOWEVER...THE NAM LIES NEAR

THE STRONG EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH ITS ASCENT FORMING WITHIN THE

STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH OF THE LOW INCLUDING AREAS

BETWEEN ALBANY AND BOSTON...WHILE THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR

LARGER-SCALE STRUCTURE WHICH IS WEAKER THAN THE NAM. THUS...DUE TO

CONSENSUS RECOMMEND DISCOUNTING THE STRONGER NAM AND RELYING UPON

AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME

LINGERING MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Reading through some other threads, I see mention of the NAM having initialization errors. Maybe this is what it ended up being so much colder? Either way, the trend today seems to be a tick or so warmer in most guidance so we may dodge the worst of this one. Once you get into Butler and Armstrong counties though things might be a different story.

Looking at that cutoff is so disgusting! 50-75 miles or so to the North of Pittsburgh has the potential to get hammered.

Edit: I see cwc posted some information to that regard also.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Reading through some other threads, I see mention of the NAM having initialization errors. Maybe this is what it ended up being so much colder? Either way, the trend today seems to be a tick or so warmer in most guidance so we may dodge the worst of this one. Once you get into Butler and Armstrong counties though things might be a different story.

Looking at that cutoff is so disgusting! 50-75 miles or so to the North of Pittsburgh has the potential to get hammered.

Edit: I see cwc posted some information to that regard also.

with ice?

you dont want that do you?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

236 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011

.SYNOPSIS...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS WILL MOVE

THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHWARD PASSAGE OF

THE SYSTEMS WARM FRONT WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO WARM. SO SNOW

TONIGHT CAN CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN RAIN FOR A TIME LATE

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING A

CHILL DOWN LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANGE BACK TO SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --PRETTY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS...HAS LED TO GREATER FORECAST

CONFIDENCE. THEREFORE...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM FRONTOGENISIS

IS PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIP JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS

AFTERNOON. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO BEGIN LATE THIS

AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN FAR SOUTH EARLY. THIS AREA OF

LIGHT SNOW WILL WORK NORTH THIS EVENING.

EXPECT SUFFICIENT WARM UP IN THE PRECIPITATION FORMING LAYER ABOVE

THE SURFACE...THAT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL TRANSITION

POSSIBLY FOR A SHORT TIME TO SLEET. AND THEN FOR A LONGER PERIOD

TO FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS

WITHIN THE I-80 CORRIDOR WILL BE SLOWEST TO CHANGE...AND MAY STAY

ALL SNOW.

LATEST NAM/GFS RUN SHOWS A SWATH OF QUARTER TO HALF INCH PRECIP

BETWEEN 09Z TO 15Z TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE

CWA...WITH LIFT WEAKENING FOR A PERIOD DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS COULD BE A PERIOD OF VERY SIGNIFICANT ICING ACROSS THIS AREA...

WHICH COULD LEAD TO TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES...IN ADDITION

TO TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES.

EXPECTING THE WARM SURGE TO PUSH NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF

THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CHANGING PRECIP OVER TO RAIN. SO HAVE

ENDED THE WARNING OVER CENTRAL COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO

COINCIDE WITH THIS RAIN CHANGEOVER.-- End Changed Discussion --

Link to comment
Share on other sites

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

236 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011

.SYNOPSIS...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS WILL MOVE

THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHWARD PASSAGE OF

THE SYSTEMS WARM FRONT WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO WARM. SO SNOW

TONIGHT CAN CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND EVEN RAIN FOR A TIME LATE

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING A

CHILL DOWN LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANGE BACK TO SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --PRETTY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS...HAS LED TO GREATER FORECAST

CONFIDENCE. THEREFORE...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM FRONTOGENISIS

IS PRODUCING LIGHT PRECIP JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS

AFTERNOON. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO BEGIN LATE THIS

AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN FAR SOUTH EARLY. THIS AREA OF

LIGHT SNOW WILL WORK NORTH THIS EVENING.

EXPECT SUFFICIENT WARM UP IN THE PRECIPITATION FORMING LAYER ABOVE

THE SURFACE...THAT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL TRANSITION

POSSIBLY FOR A SHORT TIME TO SLEET. AND THEN FOR A LONGER PERIOD

TO FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS

WITHIN THE I-80 CORRIDOR WILL BE SLOWEST TO CHANGE...AND MAY STAY

ALL SNOW.

LATEST NAM/GFS RUN SHOWS A SWATH OF QUARTER TO HALF INCH PRECIP

BETWEEN 09Z TO 15Z TONIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE

CWA...WITH LIFT WEAKENING FOR A PERIOD DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS COULD BE A PERIOD OF VERY SIGNIFICANT ICING ACROSS THIS AREA...

WHICH COULD LEAD TO TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES...IN ADDITION

TO TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES.

EXPECTING THE WARM SURGE TO PUSH NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF

THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CHANGING PRECIP OVER TO RAIN. SO HAVE

ENDED THE WARNING OVER CENTRAL COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO

COINCIDE WITH THIS RAIN CHANGEOVER.-- End Changed Discussion --

I just read that and I am worried about power outages and tree damage as my neighborhood is covered with trees. Let's hope it is not that bad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

with ice?

you dont want that do you?

Well, Id take up .15 of ice if meant more snow :P however I do not wish for a paralyzing ice storm. NWS makes mention that areas around I-80 may not even changeover from snow so that was the premise of my comment.

IF the power does go out, I will be glad for my new vent-less natural gas heater I installed over Christmas. Family will be moving downstairs to the game room to keep warm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, Id take up .15 of ice if meant more snow :P however I do not wish for a paralyzing ice storm. NWS makes mention that areas around I-80 may not even changeover from snow so that was the premise of my comment.

IF the power does go out, I will be glad for my new vent-less natural gas heater I installed over Christmas. Family will be moving downstairs to the game room to keep warm.

I work down in your neck of the woods........however since I live in that lovely area not too far north, I already told my boss I won't be in tomorrow.

Hooray I will be sleeping in, crocheting and watching the storm unfold.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I work down in your neck of the woods........however since I live in that lovely area not too far north, I already told my boss I won't be in tomorrow.

Hooray I will be sleeping in, crocheting and watching the storm unfold.

Probably not a bad idea to plan on staying home if you can. I imagine schools up that will probably be closed.

NAM prints out almost .5 in ice on the 18z run per text output.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Z

Probably not a bad idea to plan on staying home if you can. I imagine schools up that will probably be closed.

NAM prints out almost .5 in ice on the 18z run per text output.

Living in extreme southern Allegheny County, I'll hopefully be spared somewhat from the ice. It'll turn to rain sooner here. Of course, even if I get half of that .5, it'll still be trouble before the changeover. Then some flooding may become a possibility after that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...