Digger Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I had almost exactly 2" here between yesterday morning and this morning. That's measured where my kids wait for the school bus, which I cleaned off, on both days. When I walked out last night at 2 a.m., I thought I was going to have to plow, but further south, towards Pittsburgh, I didn't measure more than 3/4" anywhere. (Which, granted, I was measuring on surfaces that I'd salted the day before.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I had a solid 1.5" this AM. More than I was expecting...enough that I had to shovel off the driveway. Same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Must have been a similiar enhanced area, cause I had about 1.5" here also. As far as next week. I have no clue, and thats probably how it will stay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Must have been a similiar enhanced area, cause I had about 1.5" here also. As far as next week. I have no clue, and thats probably how it will stay. That storm next week looks like it is going to be a Monster for somebody. Did anybody catch the 6z DGEX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jen16226 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 That would be very nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 That storm next week looks like it is going to be a Monster for somebody. Did anybody catch the 6z DGEX? Yeah and I just checked out the 12z GFS and it pumps a lot of moisture into our area. I just don't like the location of the low because we'd probably have some p-type issues with that scenario. The frozen line comes right up over us at one point. The GFS has stayed more consistent with the last few runs now bringing the low up toward our area. Hopefully, it'll have a slight adjustment back to the south and east to keep us all snow. This model and the other models I'm sure will go through many more changes as we get closer. I'll say this, I'd rather have this scenario than another storm missing us to the south and/or east again. At least this gives us a chance at something substantial anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 We are going to have temp issues w/ next week's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Must have been a similiar enhanced area, cause I had about 1.5" here also. As far as next week. I have no clue, and thats probably how it will stay. No predictions out of you this time! You jinxed the last one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 There have been some strong signals for an overrunning event next week. Especially with the Gulf and Pacific open, it could be a potent system. The issue will be where the High locks in and whether or not it moves out preceding the moisture. Hopefully the atmosphere works to our advantage next week, but at this point it is too early to tell either way. Not much from the overnight clipper, about .5 inch. Expecting the same tonight and tomorrow, really. Next week will be interesting to watch. Maybe we can finally get a true Miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 There have been some strong signals for an overrunning event next week. Especially with the Gulf and Pacific open, it could be a potent system. The issue will be where the High locks in and whether or not it moves out preceding the moisture. Hopefully the atmosphere works to our advantage next week, but at this point it is too early to tell either way. Not much from the overnight clipper, about .5 inch. Expecting the same tonight and tomorrow, really. Next week will be interesting to watch. Maybe we can finally get a true Miller A. It would be nice if this one could work out for us, almost a year later to the day of last year's monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 There have been some strong signals for an overrunning event next week. Especially with the Gulf and Pacific open, it could be a potent system. The issue will be where the High locks in and whether or not it moves out preceding the moisture. Hopefully the atmosphere works to our advantage next week, but at this point it is too early to tell either way. Not much from the overnight clipper, about .5 inch. Expecting the same tonight and tomorrow, really. Next week will be interesting to watch. Maybe we can finally get a true Miller A. We also need to pay attention to the PV. That is what is causing the system to transfer rather than heading to the lakes. If it is a little bit stronger, then I think you see the transfer happen a little bit further south thus keeping the warm air out of our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I think the last few comments were excellent as far as the setup, the potential, what could go wrong, and what we need for it to go right. FWIW - most of the GFS ensembles have the Low going through Wva before the transfer. That would likely be a tremendous hit. As modeled, the operational is a potentially sloppy 6" to 8" for the city, with the warm tongue really getting the southern counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 FWIW , the last similiar La Nina ( SST wise ) back in 2007-2008 brought an active February, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Euro looks like it has the PV further out of the way so the storm is allowed to amplify and go further West. There are of course other differences at play but I know that we don't want to see that. So much cold air for this system to work with, and nice high pressures around to funnel cold air down. This could end up being pretty icy for somebody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jen16226 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Putting this here for everyone's reference.....I saw this on the general storm thread..... EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 136 PM EST FRI JAN 28 2011 VALID 12Z MON JAN 31 2011 - 12Z FRI FEB 04 2011 ...MAJOR WINTER STORM SETTING UP NEXT WEEK FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE NORTHEAST... MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS AGREEABLE WITH THE LARGE SCALE SCENARIO OF AN ELONGATED MEAN TROF EXTENDING FROM NERN CANADA SWWD INTO THE SWRN CONUS... LIKELY WITH SOME SEPARATION BETWEEN SRN CANADA/NRN TIER CONUS FLOW AND WRN/SRN CONUS FLOW. THIS TROF WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A MEAN RIDGE THAT SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE ERN PAC/WRN CANADA ALBEIT WITH SOME CHANGE IN SHAPE OVER TIME. WHILE A GOOD CONSENSUS EXISTS WITH THE LARGE SCALE MEAN EVOLUTION... THERE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS DUE TO THE SPLIT FLOW NATURE OF THE NOAM PATTERN AND ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTIES PRESENTED BY ERN PAC ENERGY THAT MAY TRY TO PASS THRU THE MEAN RIDGE BY MID-LATE WEEK. THE MOST PROMINENT SFC SYSTEM FOR WHICH SHRTWV UNCERTAINTIES COME INTO PLAY IS FCST TO TRACK NEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS TUE ONWARD. TO VARYING DEGREES THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE MADE MEANINGFUL NWWD ADJUSTMENTS FROM FAIRLY SUPPRESSED TRACKS IN MULTIPLE PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ECMWF TREND IS MORE EXTREME AS ITS PREVIOUS TWO RUNS WERE ON THE SERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE AND THE NEW 00Z RUN IS NOW ON THE NWRN SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THE CANADIAN IS A FAST EXTREME TO BRING SWRN CONUS ENERGY INTO THE PLAINS AND IS ALSO IN THE NWRN PART OF THE SPREAD... WHILE THE UKMET TRACK IS NOT QUITE AS FAR NWWD AS ITS PREVIOUS RUN. OVERALL PREFER A GEFS MEAN/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLN THAT FALLS IN THE MIDDLE OF LATEST AND RECENT GUIDANCE GIVEN THE SENSITIVITY OF SHRTWV DETAILS AND SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY CHANGES. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM... BY WED NIGHT-FRI THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING ENERGY THAT MAY TRY TO PASS THRU THE ERN PAC MEAN RIDGE. THE 00Z ECMWF AND SLOWER 00Z GFS BOTH SEEM A LITTLE STRONG SO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND USED FOR THE PLAINS/ERN CONUS SYSTEM PROVIDES A MORE TOLERABLE SOLN AT THIS TIME. THE GEFS MEAN IS A LITTLE EXTREME WITH ITS SLOWER TIMING/WWD ELONGATION OF THE TROF SETTLING OVER THE SWRN CONUS SO INCLUSION OF THE ECMWF MEAN TONES DOWN THIS ASPECT OF THE FCST. WHILE DAYS 5-7 WED-FRI FOLLOW A BLEND OF THE GEFS/12Z ECMWF MEANS... MISSING DATA DUE TO EARLIER COMMS ISSUES PRECLUDED USE OF THE ECMWF MEAN FOR DAYS 3-4. THUS THE EARLIER PART OF THE FCST STARTED WITH A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN SOLNS TO ARRIVE AT AN ACCEPTABLE COMPROMISE. UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS USE A MULTIMODEL BLEND OF 00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC/UKMET/GFS ENS MEAN. THE RESULT IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE EARLIER USED SOLUTION. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE FOLLOWS CONTINUITY AND A COMPOSITE OF THE RUNS WOULD CONTINUE TO YIELD THE BLENDED SOLUTION OF HPC. NO CHANGES FOR AFTERNOON FINALS. AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY TUESDAY AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PLUNGES DEEP INTO THE PLAINS WITH GREATER THAN 20 DEGREE NEGATIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES. THIS WILL BRING STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CO ROCKIES FRONT RANGE WITH MDT/HVY SNOWFALL TO THE SRN ROCKIES SPREADING EWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL ENERGY SHEARS OUT EWD AND A MDT SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER ERN TX BY TUESDAY. THIS LOW MOVES NEWD INTO KY/TN WED AND REFORMS OFF THE MID ATLC CAPES AND RAPIDLY MOVES NEWD OFF NOVA SCOTIA BY THURSDAY. MDT TO HVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK WITH SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MAINLY NORTH OF THE OH RIVER AND MASON DIXON LINE INTO NEW ENG. HEAVY SNOW THREAT INDICATED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS QPF OUTPUT/ANALOGS AND FAVORABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH ICING THREAT ALONG THE CHANGE OVER AND THEN THE DAMMED IN AREA IN THE MID ATLC PIEDMONT. PACIFIC RECON FLIGHTS REQUESTED INTO THE CRITICAL UNCERTAINTY AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE NE PACIFIC. IF A FLIGHT IS AVAILABLE THIS DATA COULD GET INTO THE MODEL SYSTEMS BY THE RUNS OF SUNDAY 00Z/12Z 30 JAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PittWeatherWatch Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 from NWS Pitt .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY UNDER A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE. WARM FRONT AHEAD OF NEXT STORM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE FROM NEAR THE GULF COAST TUESDAY EVENING TO NEAR PITTSBURGH BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW THAN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE STORM MOVES RAPIDLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLDER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE ALONG HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 333 PM EST FRI JAN 28 2011 MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023- 029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-292045- GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON- JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-VENANGO- FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY- ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES- FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION- MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER- 333 PM EST FRI JAN 28 2011 .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE MID WEEK. WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman5416 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 from NWS Pitt .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY UNDER A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE. WARM FRONT AHEAD OF NEXT STORM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE FROM NEAR THE GULF COAST TUESDAY EVENING TO NEAR PITTSBURGH BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW THAN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE STORM MOVES RAPIDLY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLDER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE ALONG HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 333 PM EST FRI JAN 28 2011 MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023- 029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021>023-041-292045- GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON- JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-VENANGO- FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY- ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES- FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION- MONONGALIA-PRESTON-TUCKER- 333 PM EST FRI JAN 28 2011 .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE MID WEEK. WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. I must say, seeing that makes me actually feel cautiously optimistic. It's also interesting that this possible event is almost a year after last year's 20-some inches. Maybe a good sign? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I must say, seeing that makes me actually feel cautiously optimistic. It's also interesting that this possible event is almost a year after last year's 20-some inches. Maybe a good sign? I find it strange that NWS Pit would put the heavy snow information in the discussion with the the storm 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I must say, seeing that makes me actually feel cautiously optimistic. It's also interesting that this possible event is almost a year after last year's 20-some inches. Maybe a good sign? Yeah, I mentioned that earlier. Almost a year to the day. I'm still concerned about the track of the low if it comes right at us. We usually have slop issues with that type of track. I guess the PV is going to be one of the keys like most have mentioned here already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I must say, seeing that makes me actually feel cautiously optimistic. It's also interesting that this possible event is almost a year after last year's 20-some inches. Maybe a good sign? Yes for the NWS which is very conservative when it comes to calling for severe weather 5 of so days out is encouraging if you want a snowstorm. The GFS looks real nice , QPF totals .75-1.00" over a 48 hour period and over the last day or two not much flip flopping. I am sure the NAM will get ahold of this and F it up like it has done all Winter, till 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman5416 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 From Jeff V. this really suprises me. He just posted this on Twitter. "Pretty quiet for sunday, monday & tuesday...then it's game on tuesday night into wednesday w/ significant storm (snowfall) possible" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman5416 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Even more suprising, he just posted a early look at accumulations! "It's early (very early), but as of right now (fri), the storm nxt week (tue nite into wed) could bring in xcess of 6" of wet snow..stay 2ned" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 18z GFS trends further west. We probably get slop from this storm with that sollution. Needs to come back east! Still a lot of time to do this and, considering the GFS had this thing off the coast yesterday, it's definitely possible. I just don't like that most of the models seem to at least somewhat agree with this sollution right now. I think the GFS is actually the best one for us and it would probably give us slop before transferring to the coast and shooting up the NE coast. It would just give us less "slop" than the others right now. This will be an interesting next few days watching this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PittWeatherWatch Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 From Jeff V. this really suprises me. He just posted this on Twitter. "Pretty quiet for sunday, monday & tuesday...then it's game on tuesday night into wednesday w/ significant storm (snowfall) possible" Wow this surprises me even more than NWS Pitt. He has to be the most conservative met I've ever watched. Not that it's a bad thing. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 IMO, they all see a major storm. No doubt about it. I'm still on the fence about precip, though. Climatologically, the WTOD usually rears its ugly head in this setup. PS: 6" of snow is cool...6+" of wet snow and I'll be done with winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 IMO, they all see a major storm. No doubt about it. I'm still on the fence about precip, though. Climatologically, the WTOD usually rears its ugly head in this setup. PS: 6" of snow is cool...6+" of wet snow and I'll be done with winter. I hope I'm wrong, but I just don't have a good feeling about this one right now. All the models seem to be showing a lake cutter before transferring to the coast. As it shows currently, maybe we'd see an inch or two initially before the warmer air rushes in, and another inch or two as the transfer takes place, but a lot of rain and slop in the middle. That's just how it looks right now. It's the general agreement of all the models right now with this solution that is concerning. I'm not giving up or anything before someone yells at me. lol There's a lot of time for things to change obviously. I'm just giving my feeling on this based on what all the models are showing currently. Plenty of time to go on this one. Just looks ugly right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 we're on the snow/ice line according to this map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 00z GFS seems to have shifted back to the east slightly. Hopefully we'll see more of this in the upcoming runs from all of the models. Slop is bad enough, but we certainly don't want ice either! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 0z gfs has the low around morgantown, wv. 0c line is well north of pit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PittWeatherWatch Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NWS has pulled HWO and mention of "significant snow accumulation" from discussion. Still early though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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