blackngoldrules Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 <br />The whole thing was jumbled and disorganized from the start, the overall setup wasn't that bad, it's just one of those things folks.But hey no excuses, I was wrong. <img src='http://img.amwx.us/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/axesmiley.png' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' /> Hey, when you made that prediction on Saturday, the models started looking really good for us at the time. I can see why you felt that way. I said this was looking like a near miss for us at best. I guess I was right and wrong. It depends on where you're at today whether or not you're seeing snow. It's funny how Allegheny County almost always seems to be the dividing line for everything. Whether it be on the fringe of a storm or the dividing line between rain and snow. It's happened a lot over the years it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrsH Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Am in Washington County. Has been snowing HEAVILY since late morning. Schools dismissed early. Still snowing. We have at least 3 inches and it's heavy and wet. Let's just hope we don't lose our power! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Am in Washington County. Has been snowing HEAVILY since late morning. Schools dismissed early. Still snowing. We have at least 3 inches and it's heavy and wet. Let's just hope we don't lose our power! That's what I was afraid of happening for the areas that got heavy snow, that stuff is like plaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Seeing all the power outage reports, i'm glad we missed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Snowing lightly here. Only picked up about 1/2 inch of wet snow. It looks to be winding down per radar very soon. I like the Nam for a nice little clipper Thur night and another on Saturday. So far it looks like we may be seeing a couple 1-2 inch snowfalls or thereabout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Made out decently down here; had 3-4 inches about two hours ago. It snowed heavily at times, moderately right now. Looks to be ending within the next couple of hours. Hopefully we can get a better storm come February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 You guys should check out the 180hr of the 18z GFS. Look eerily familiar? Lol Thankfully, that has a lot of time to change and should change many times.....hopefully for our benefit eventually. Anyway, just found that particular hour of the GFS interesting considering what happened with the storm today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Denny Bowman was talking about a storm for Monday. Said several models are showing it. Alos maybe a couple inches from both clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Denny Bowman was talking about a storm for Monday. Said several models are showing it. Alos maybe a couple inches from both clippers. Which model Monday? NYC and North Jersey bombed again, snowiest month EVER recorded in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Which model Monday? NYC and North Jersey bombed again, snowiest month EVER recorded in NYC. He didn't mention. I only checked the GFS and didn't see anything of note other than another potential bomp for EC late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jen16226 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Here is something to look at for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Which model Monday? NYC and North Jersey bombed again, snowiest month EVER recorded in NYC. GFS looks like it has some sort of over running type system with light snow Monday night into Wednesday but it doesn't have a big storm hitting the area although something is developing but misses us to the SE. Getting more snow this morning than I got from the storm yesterday! Marginal snow events during the day light hours definitely suck, unless you get walloped like DC did with 2-3 inch per hour rates with thunder and lightening. Id prefer less qpf with colder temperatures and higher ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Here is something to look at for next week. Wow, looks good. To bad it is the DGEX lol. Euro lost the big lake cutter bomb idea last night which is probably a good thing for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 GFS looks like it has some sort of over running type system with light snow Monday night into Wednesday but it doesn't have a big storm hitting the area although something is developing but misses us to the SE. Getting more snow this morning than I got from the storm yesterday! Marginal snow events during the day light hours definitely suck, unless you get walloped like DC did with 2-3 inch per hour rates with thunder and lightening. Id prefer less qpf with colder temperatures and higher ratios. yes I picked up about 1/4 inch this morning and still snowing. I had a glaze of ice under the snow this morning from the melting, wet snow that we got yesterday that froze last night. I also noticed the Canadian models have a storm moving in here early next week. As usual, some models show it and some don't. We will have to wait and see. Hopefully it won't be a coastal again. I feel bad that we are missing out on these storms and especially the midwest folks too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Nice we could get 10-12"+ over a 5 day period, if that pans out. Start Feb with a bang. Here is something to look at for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Looks like a lake cutter..no? But that has not happened all that much this Winter, maybe an eastern trend is what we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Looks like a lake cutter..no? But that has not happened all that much this Winter, maybe an eastern trend is what we need. Yeah, probably would be to far west. But considering the GGEM showed a good hit for us with the previous system only to correct 400 miles East that might not be such a bad thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Where is everybody? Possible 2-4 inches tonight and tomorrow and another round on Saturday. Then something to watch for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Where is everybody? Possible 2-4 inches tonight and tomorrow and another round on Saturday. Then something to watch for next week. still in awe of the ridiculous winter Philly/NYC/NJ has had thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Where is everybody? Possible 2-4 inches tonight and tomorrow and another round on Saturday. Then something to watch for next week. These clippers seem to be our best bet. Live on these and lake effect. to build up our base. How much for Saturday? Not too excited about next weeks potential for our area. No doubt another EC special... . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 These clippers seem to be our best bet. Live on these and lake effect. to build up our base. How much for Saturday? Not too excited about next weeks potential for our area. No doubt another EC special... . Sat temps may be marginal. not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 These clippers seem to be our best bet. Live on these and lake effect. to build up our base. How much for Saturday? Not too excited about next weeks potential for our area. No doubt another EC special... . FXUS61 KPBZ 271954 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 254 PM EST THU JAN 27 2011 .SYNOPSIS... -- Changed Discussion --A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY...MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --EXPECT AN ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING AS A CLIPPER DROPS SOUTHEAST. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL COME OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER. SHOULD SEE LIGHT ACCUMS AHEAD AND BEHIND THIS WAVE AS WELL. IN GENERAL...EXPECT A BROAD 2 TO 4 INCH ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRACK...AS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE COUNTIES COULD GET A LITTLE MORE SNOW IF THE BETTER ENERGY FOCUSES A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. MET AND MAV TEMP NUMBERS VERY SIMILAR...AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING FRIDAY EVENING...ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER BROAD AREA OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS...ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3...OR 2 TO 4 INCHES. WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH ON SATURDAY...COULD SEE SOME MIXING WITH RAIN...HENCE CUTTING DOWN SNOWFALL TOTALS THERE. WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR THAT PERIOD. HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER FLOW FLAT...COULD NOT RULE OUT A WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS. HAVE STAYED NEAR MAV MOS NUMBERS FOR TEMPS THIS PERIOD.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING UNDER A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION BACK INTO OUR REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED ON WEDNESDAY AS SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE COAST. NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.-- End Changed Discussion -- && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 NWS is more bullish than they were before...wonder what they see. Maybe a further south track? Earlier they were saying the first system was moisture starved, and the second "more potent" may be good for an inch or two. We'll see how this first one evolves. A 2-4" type call is more aggressive than all the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I'm hearing some people say that the normally inconsistent NOGAPS model had the last track the earliest and most consistent. FWIW for next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 That potential storm next week is still a long ways off and the models will be all over the place for a good while yet. The GFS just went from a storm that just misses us to the east on the 18z run to a Low that almost tracks over top of us on the 00z run. Still a lot of time on this one. Next run will probably have it track over Detroit or something. The nature of the beast this far out. Should be interesting to track over the next several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Will be interesting To track hope Dave will stop back in to offer some analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 NWS is more bullish than they were before...wonder what they see. Maybe a further south track? Earlier they were saying the first system was moisture starved, and the second "more potent" may be good for an inch or two. We'll see how this first one evolves. A 2-4" type call is more aggressive than all the guidance. Just pretty much a dusting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I got more than a dusting but less than an inch here. Nothing too exciting. Not sure what we'll pick up today but probably won't be a whole lot more. I guess we'll have one more little clipper to move through over the weekend that'll probably give us similar amounts and then I guess it's on to next week's unpredictable storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I had a solid 1.5" this AM. More than I was expecting...enough that I had to shovel off the driveway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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