passmaster16 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Glad to have you here Dave, always nice to get the professional perspective, hope you can stick around and post a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Some good analysis in here without any banter is nice for once guys ^ . Anyways, I like to look at this close to events even though its not the most reliable model. It shows trends sometimes, especially because it runs hourly. This loop looks way better than I would've expected for this storm. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr:&runTime=2011012602&plotName=cref_sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=15&resizePlot=1&domain=full&wjet=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nittany Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Thanks for the update Dave, it is really nice to have you on here. As far as the Euro QPF goes, I get my data from Accuweather pro, they recently added a bunch of new data from the Euro which really come in handy. Had a feeling you were paying for something....I'm glad to help. Sorry it has been like pulling teeth to get me to post, but my days are pretty hectic...can do it via my phone, but that would take a day just to post something half decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman5416 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Had a feeling you were paying for something....I'm glad to help. Sorry it has been like pulling teeth to get me to post, but my days are pretty hectic...can do it via my phone, but that would take a day just to post something half decent. That's ok, just glad you are here now. One final question, I'm making my forecast for my high school right now, how much snow do you think I should call for in southern Beaver county? Right now, I am thinking 1-2, sound reasonable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nittany Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 That's ok, just glad you are here now. One final question, I'm making my forecast for my high school right now, how much snow do you think I should call for in southern Beaver county? Right now, I am thinking 1-2, sound reasonable? sounds good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Lowest baro. pressure is still in southeast Alabama, and the strongest winds are in southern miss. FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 sounds good to me. Welcome. Glad to have you check in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Also, after this. The Gfs keeps us tracking some potentially (hopefully) over performing clippers. We've done the best so far this year with storms over performing, so hopefully that trend continues! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 NAM taken literally was about 2" at KPIT, but over 4" at KAGC This may be one of the rare times that I'm glad I live in southern Allegheny County when it comes to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nittany Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I'm sure this will crank up the excitement, but I see a pretty strong presence of a potential low height anomaly at 500mb at different pertubations come Feb 3-5. This could indicate another synoptic event over the east coast (a whole 10-12 days away). This may show up in the MREF...only time will tell. The pattern looks to remain cold (with little or no break) for the next 3-4 weeks. Good night all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Also, after this. The Gfs keeps us tracking some potentially (hopefully) over performing clippers. We've done the best so far this year with storms over performing, so hopefully that trend continues! I was going to post the same thing. Hope to get a couple tomorrow and more on the weekend. Cold air will be in place for the long term at least into next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Final map for the storm. Good luck Pgh-ers, hopefully for you guys some of those higher totals make it up further... which is still possible. Shortened the southeast 3-6 region, still think poor ratios and/or mixing holds amounts down on the southeast end of philly metro, nw suburbs should do fine. Flattened the ranges more east-west oriented across the state. I expect alot of general 7-8 inch amounts in the 6-9 range, some isolated 10 inch amounts could happen within the range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Final map for the storm. Good luck Pgh-ers, hopefully for you guys some of those higher totals make it up further... which is still possible. Thank you for adding your expertise here. That's definitely a little more than I would have thought we were getting just a day or two ago. Looks like my area may get close to 3 if your map ends up being right. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PittWeatherWatch Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... MADE MINOR CHANGES TO POPS FOR TODAY. DIFFICULT TO ASSIMILATE THE INITIAL PUSH OF THE LIGHT PRECIP...THEN THE BREAK THAT IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MORNING HOURS. CURRENT MODEL RUNS STILL SHOW MOST LIKELY TIME FOR HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST TODAY, WITH DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS, INCLUDING LOCATION OF SFC FEATURES, SPEED AND MOISTURE. WHEN CREATING FORECAST, HAVE ATTEMPTED TO FIND A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD IN THE MODELS. WITH THE LATEST MODEL DATA AND INPUT FROM HPC, WILL EXPAND THE WARNING INTO THE RIDGES OF WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE COUNTIES. THE ADV WILL EXPAND INTO GREENE AND WETZEL COUNTIES, AS WELL AS THE LOWLANDS OF FAYETTE AND WESTMORELAND COUNTIES AND INDIANA COUNTY. USING THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND OBS, HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND REMOVE THE MENTION OF ICE. THIS MIX LINE WILL BE ABSOLUTELY CRUCIAL FOR THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT FALLS IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA. SFC TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR AWHILE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE RIDGES. THIS WILL LIKELY CUT INTO SNOWFALL THIS MORNING. AS THE SFC LOW SHIFTS TO NEAR CAPE HATTERAS LATE THIS MORNING, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL QUICKLY COOL TURNING ANY MIX BACK TO SNOW. MODEL DATA IS STRONGLY HINTING THAT SNOW BANDS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE ADVISORY AND WARNING AREAS. THIS WILL PROVIDE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL. THE THREAT OF BANDING ALSO SHOWS UP IN THE SREF, WHICH IS SHOWING A ZONE OF DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH OVER THE ADV AND WARNING AREAS DURING THE AFT, AS WELL AS SNOWFALL RATES OF GREATER THAN AN INCH AN HOUR, PARTICULARLY OVER THE RIDGES. THE OTHER BIG QUESTION FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CUTOFF OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. THIS SITUATION WILL ALLOW FOR A SHARP CUTOFF OF SNOW, WHERE 20 MILES COULD SEPARATE 3 INCHES TO LESS THAN AN INCH. TWO COUNTIES THAT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED TODAY, ARE WASHINGTON AND ALLEGHENY. IF THE STORM SHIFTS EVER SO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST, PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTIES COULD SEE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Looks to me on radar as it was last night, the blob cometh. I think the 1-3"+ stuff is all the way up to the city and Waynesburg, Morgantown, Uniontown getting 3+. Looks to be heavy, heavy, 1" per hour stuff, too. Temporary whiteout type. Be careful out there today if you are on !-70,68 or 79 south of Canonsburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Just checked the latest surface pressure readings, and its basically 1005 across most of NC, however the strongest winds are back over KY and TN. So I guess we'll see what we see, however I will admit I was counting on there being one dominant sub 1000 low at this point, along with a decent H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Snowing here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Decent snow rate in Greensburg right now. Big wet flakes falling. I love this part of the NWS discussion for next week: THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK CAN BE CHARACTERIZED AS A CRAP SHOOT AT THIS POINT. HUGE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD PROVIDE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 snowing now in monroeville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Not much of a flurry in Robinson. Called my home and everything is covered in Bethel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Not much of a flurry in Robinson. Called my home and everything is covered in Bethel. Yes this is going to be a south and east storm. Nothing but light flurries here thus far in the North Hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Still snowing in Greensburg. Looking at the Radar though probably just flurries at home. Looks like MBY missed this one by about 15 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Not even much here in bethel park really guys... That dark blue is JUST south man!!!! Crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Not even much here in bethel park really guys... That dark blue is JUST south man!!!! Crap It is frustrating, The precip shield does look like it is still continuing to creep ever so slowly NW however you can see the heavier bands just seem to dissipate as they move northward. Other problems with this on top of the fact it is only light snow is that the temperature is above freezing, and the snow is falling in the afternoon. None of these things make for the snow to accumulate well on anything other than surfaces already covered in snow. If we didn't have snow cover this would be melting on impact with only slush on the grass. At least its snowing though right?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Maybe I just happen to be in a pretty good band right now, but in West Mifflin I'm getting moderate snow right now and the parking lots and roads are just starting to get covered a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Heavy snow here in McMurray...nice to be on the northern edge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 26, 2011 Author Share Posted January 26, 2011 moderate snow in Monroeville right now. Temp is 34°F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The whole thing was jumbled and disorganized from the start, the overall setup wasn't that bad, it's just one of those things folks. But hey no excuses, I was wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The whole thing was jumbled and disorganized from the start, the overall setup wasn't that bad, it's just one of those things folks. But hey no excuses, I was wrong. How were you wrong, I dont think beyond some banned posters anyone made a solid call on this. Looks like Morgantown and Parkersburg are the sweet spots,Harrisburg getting dry slotted, Central Pa thread is suicidal, Flyer fans most of the anyways, who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The whole thing was jumbled and disorganized from the start, the overall setup wasn't that bad, it's just one of those things folks. But hey no excuses, I was wrong. You called for 6+ Saturday night right? When should I expect the dump trucks full of snow to subsidize for what didn't fall in my back yard? No way anybody could have accurately predicted this storm though in all seriousness. It wasn't really until last night and this morning that it became clear what we could expect. Good news is, the Euro has a storm cutting to the lakes for early next week. After the 400 mile SE correction we should be golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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