Digger Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Haven't checked long range. Anything down the road look promising? April 30th. Snow plowing contracts expire. Oh, you meant something different than that, huh? Something weather-y? :blush: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It's so hard to get overall analysis in any thread right now, everyone is so fixated on IMBY qpf totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 April 30th. Snow plowing contracts expire. Oh, you meant something different than that, huh? Something weather-y? :blush: You and your one track mind! Lol I guess I can't blame ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 damn..western fringe of a friggin bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 damn..western fringe of a friggin bomb. Yeah, it's definitely frustrating to be this close. I'd rather see a storm just go ots and miss everyone than be this close and miss it. Even Morgantown might get a few inches out of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digger Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 You and your one track mind! Lol I guess I can't blame ya. It's the same track the rest of you are on. I'm just going in the opposite direction. (Heck, the only reason I replied was that it does look like we're going to miss this one. If I were sitting here contemplating another 16 hours in the truck tomorrow, I'd just be sulky and non-participatory, like I have been...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 how depressing-huh, seems like the trend though-where one storm goes, others will follow!...Oh well-maybe this thing will surprise all of us-even the mega-weenie Henry M!.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It's the same track the rest of you are on. I'm just going in the opposite direction. <img src='http://img.amwx.us/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' (Heck, the only reason I replied was that it <i>does</i> look like we're going to miss this one. If I were sitting here contemplating another 16 hours in the truck tomorrow, I'd just be sulky and non-participatory, like I have been...) Man, why don't you just "hang up the plow" for good after your contract ends, if it makes you that miserable doing it? I don't know your situation in life, so maybe you don't have a choice, but it just seems like it makes your life miserable every winter! Doesn't seem like it would be worth it if it causes you that much misery. Although, I'm probably being a bit of a hypocrite saying this to you, because my job makes me miserable most of the time as well and that's all year round. I'm physically exhausted at the end of every day. Being a vendor for a bottling co. is exhausting work and it only gets worse for me around the holidays, and yes, especially when the Steelers make the Super Bowl. Money to be made for my bosses because of these things! I pay the price physically! But, I have bills to pay, mouths to feed, etc. just like you do too I'm sure. Geez, now you got me venting! I'm done now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digger Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Man, why don't you just "hang up the plow" for good after your contract ends, if it makes you that miserable doing it? I don't know your situation in life, so maybe you don't have a choice, but it just seems like it makes your life miserable every winter! Doesn't seem like it would be worth it if it causes you that much misery. Although, I'm probably being a bit of a hypocrite saying this to you, because my job makes me miserable most of the time as well and that's all year round. I'm physically exhausted at the end of every day. Being a vendor for a bottling co. is exhausting work and it only gets worse for me around the holidays, and yes, especially when the Steelers make the Super Bowl. Money to be made for my bosses because of these things! I pay the price physically! But, I have bills to pay, mouths to feed, etc. just like you do too I'm sure. Geez, now you got me venting! I'm done now. I feel your pain. Really, I'm not just saying that, I do. Don't you feel better now, having vented? 99% chance that this will be the last year for plowing. This winter in particular though, it's a necessary evil. I literally haven't moved a single bucketful of dirt in the last month. I don't think there's been another month since I started into the excavation business back in 79 that I could say that. December wasn't a whole lot better. Wanna leave the bottles behind and buy a snowplow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Was reading in the Ohio thread that the radar images show the precip shield to be futher west than the NAM. Anybody else notice this? Classic weenie thoughts from weenies watching weenie radar. (OK...OK....I admit....I was thinking it) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Classic weenie thoughts from weenies watching weenie radar. (OK...OK....I admit....I was thinking it) So this is supposed to be the General Lee storm, hit the Mason Dixon and no further...am I supposed to buy this. Look at the Radar . So what is going on here? The convection exploding on the west side today and I did not see one model even come close to depicting that. At this point what the low is supposed to go ENE and miss us completely. I am getting my shovel ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 12z Euro QPF KPIT - .21" KLBE - .39" KAOO - .65" KJST - .46" KUNV - .43" KAFJ - .35" KBVI/KBTP - ~.1" Pittsburgh is sooo close yet so far. 2m temps on Euro still end up above 0C briefly, but 18z temps for today are warmer than they actually are right now. Some dude in another thread had this Euro depiction of the 12Z Euro QPF. I'm not sure it's correct, but just passing it along... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Will GLADLY take a few surprise inches... 0z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 So this is supposed to be the General Lee storm, hit the Mason Dixon and no further...am I supposed to buy this. Look at the Radar . So what is going on here? The convection exploding on the west side today and I did not see one model even come close to depicting that. At this point what the low is supposed to go ENE and miss us completely. I am getting my shovel ready. We have to be cautious though.... Remember last year....before things got cranking in February....everything would look great and seemed to come north then exit stage right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Will GLADLY take a few surprise inches... 0z NAM Wow...nam verbatim probably gets us about 2 inches...and the radar looks awesome...if we can get an advisory from this it would be a coupe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 One more push north and we get closer to .5 qpf...at the least time to hoist advisories in the southern counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Hey Airsci, any thoughts on this storm. Looking at the IR satellite and WV loop, what do you see. Not trying to call you out, but as our only resident met, your input would be appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 NAM looks like it's advertising 3" to 5"....although it's known to overdue QPF. The other word of caution is with the H5 low further east, our precip will like shut off in a hurry when the low bombs. If that feature would have been further NW, we would have been cranking when the surface gets captured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 You guys need to take a look at some if the sim radars posted in the oh thread...precip shield makes it past Akron...these are accu radars and others...nit sure on reliability of those, probably low, but if that verified we are looking at way more than we thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Believe me tight gradients can happen. Last year areas less than 20 miles from me received about twice the snow I did on multiple occasions; I got 12" while those places got 28". Certainly either the movement of the low or relatively dry air can effect how the precip falls. Maybe February will bring better luck as it did last season for this area, although I was located elsewhere to experience it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Don't you guys think p-type issues would come into play even if we had more precip? According to NWS discussion, they are saying ice, freezing rain, or sleet is possible. .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL SPREAD SNOW AND POSSIBLY ICE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF ROUTE 22 AND I-70. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER BOUT OF SNOWFALL FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND SNOW FORECAST THIS PERIOD, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH, BASED ON BLEND OF RECENT HRRR, SREF, AND ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT. IN CONSENSUS WITH HPC WWD SNOW AMOUNTS, HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE WV-MD MOUNTAINS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR NEARBY PA-WV LOWER MOUNTAINS. JUDGING FROM RECENT GFS MODEL PROFILES, THERE IS A CHANCE OF ICE FROM FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET WITHIN THE CORRIDOR FROM KPKB/PARKERSBURG WV/ TO KIDI/INDIANA PA/, AS INITIALLY WARMER AIR CAN SHOOT NORTHEAST, JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS, MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This is everyone but digger's response to this NW shift. Here is what digger is probably doing after seeing it! lol In all seriousness I wouldn't get to excited yet as the NAM has been out to lunch with this thing for several runs though we are withing 24 hours so it should be getting into its wheel house. 21z Srefs looks to have gone NW a bit too but its hard to tell if they are as bullish as the NAM is for our area. Verbatim NAM shows probably 2-4 inches as I don't think we would see ratios much about 10:1 I won't be staying up for the GFS. I'm going to go to bed happy and hopefully waking up to agreement with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Not even sure it's worth looking at the models at this point other than trying to validate the model against the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 With temps possibly being an issue would it be possible that we get more of a wet snow and mix and may not get much accumulation except on the existing snow pack? See what the gfs has but we may be looking at a possible 1-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 FXUS61 KPBZ 260246 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 946 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011 .SYNOPSIS... -- Changed Discussion --A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL SPREAD SNOW AND POSSIBLY ICE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF ROUTE 22 AND I-70. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN CANADA WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER BOUT OF SNOWFALL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.-- End Changed Discussion -- && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE AND SNOW FORECAST THIS PERIOD, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ICE SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURGH, BASED ON BLEND OF RECENT HRRR, SREF, AND ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT. IN CONSENSUS WITH HPC WWD SNOW AMOUNTS, HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE WV-MD MOUNTAINS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR NEARBY PA-WV LOWER MOUNTAINS. JUDGING FROM RECENT GFS MODEL PROFILES, THERE IS A CHANCE OF ICE FROM FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET WITHIN THE CORRIDOR FROM KPKB/PARKERSBURG WV/ TO KIDI/INDIANA PA/, AS INITIALLY WARMER AIR CAN SHOOT NORTHEAST, JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS, MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SNOW DENSITY MAY BE GREATER THAN USUAL WEDNESDAY, AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE ADDED IMPACT OF SNOW BETTER ADHERING YO SUCH SURFACES AS WIRES AND TREES. SNOW REMOVAL MAY LIKEWISE REQUIRE GREATER PHYSICAL EFFORT.-- End Changed Discussion -- && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Gfs bumped north with the precip fwiw. Almost like the nam. We'll see what the Euro shows. I honestly think if this plays out as much in our favor as it can, we could see 2 - Maybe 3 inches of a nice heavy wet snow. It bears watching a little, and honestly anything would be great since we weren't really expecting much for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 NAM taken literally was about 2" at KPIT, but over 4" at KAGC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nittany Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I don't think the NAM is that far fetched at this point, (both in track and QPF) but many of you have agreed (and I've been skeptical as well) that until recently it has not been a plausible solution. I've maintained from the start that this would have more of an east impact....Euro once again gets my respect and has since I was an undergrad. The surface part of this storm will have a glancing effect (if any at all, mostly upper air at this point) perhaps with some light freezing precip for Wednesday morning, but once the upper-disturbance (and a rigorous one at that) swings through you'll get your brief shot at some light to moderate snow and then it's all over. Total for the entire PIT CWA will be on the order of 1-3. WV and MD higher elevations stand to see substantially more due to being on the path of greatest dynamic lift (including T'snow) coupled with geography. This feature will continue eastward toward MDT and PHL. The Euro was pretty consistent, all things considered. This is not a classic damming situation with a blocking pattern, therefore very difficult to forecast, especially when the progs have been all over the place. Whoever posts here with Euro QPF, I'm interested where you get it from....lucky. That is the hardest item to find, if you don't subscribe. As I have read since becoming a new member a couple of days ago, it sounds like there are a lot of snow enthusiasts on board. The good news is that the door remains open in the MREF with means that continue on the troughy side. Guess Phil will see his shadow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This is interesting. Models have been hinting at a double barrel type setup. It looks like this is coming to fruition,. Check out the pressure falls in TN. How long the weaker inland low holds on may be our chance, if you are holding out for 4"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman5416 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I don't think the NAM is that far fetched at this point, (both in track and QPF) but many of you have agreed (and I've been skeptical as well) that until recently it has not been a plausible solution. I've maintained from the start that this would have more of an east impact....Euro once again gets my respect and has since I was an undergrad. The surface part of this storm will have a glancing effect (if any at all, mostly upper air at this point) perhaps with some light freezing precip for Wednesday morning, but once the upper-disturbance (and a rigorous one at that) swings through you'll get your brief shot at some light to moderate snow and then it's all over. Total for the entire PIT CWA will be on the order of 1-3. WV and MD higher elevations stand to see substantially more due to being on the path of greatest dynamic lift (including T'snow) coupled with geography. This feature will continue eastward toward MDT and PHL. The Euro was pretty consistent, all things considered. This is not a classic damming situation with a blocking pattern, therefore very difficult to forecast, especially when the progs have been all over the place. Whoever posts here with Euro QPF, I'm interested where you get it from....lucky. That is the hardest item to find, if you don't subscribe. As I have read since becoming a new member a couple of days ago, it sounds like there are a lot of snow enthusiasts on board. The good news is that the door remains open in the MREF with means that continue on the troughy side. Guess Phil will see his shadow. Thanks for the update Dave, it is really nice to have you on here. As far as the Euro QPF goes, I get my data from Accuweather pro, they recently added a bunch of new data from the Euro which really come in handy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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