north pgh Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Even if we don't get any snow from this next system it looks like some cold and possible clippers moving through in the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On the euro, Morgantown gets .75....we get .1. If that happens, shoot me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Ignore works great..... Now if you guys would quit quoting him, I wouldn't have to see any of his posts at all That's the problem with ignoring. You still have to read their crap when someone else decides to quote them! Anyway, 00z GFS and NAM just clip us with the NAM giving us next to nothing. Seems like all the models are coming into better agreement now that this thing is going to just miss us or give us very minimal amounts at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NAM showed something over the weekend, but now its gone.. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_nam/nam_kpit.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That's the problem with ignoring. You still have to read their crap when someone else decides to quote them! Anyway, 00z GFS and NAM just clip us with the NAM giving us next to nothing. Seems like all the models are coming into better agreement now that this thing is going to just miss us or give us very minimal amounts at best. Amazing this storm..GONE. Nobody really gets anything of note, WV 3-5" whoopie and PA, except for extremem SC Pa, like around Gettysburg a few inches. What an utter waste of time for anyone to get excited about this. May get some decent slop around Va Beach area and NJ but this thing which was a monster a week ago on the models, petered out. Oh well in another week we can do the Lucy and Charlie Brown act again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Who in the hell is Karl Racki?...he also has a facebook account.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Seriously between rants and this northpitt our thread has basically gone to Sh** . I've tried reporting, Im not sure if you guys have. Maybe we just need to all report them, so the mods know its seriously annoying. Sorry guys, I've had my hands full in the NYC forum. Anyways, he's gone. Back to your regularly scheduled topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Euro QPF KPIT - .1" KLBE - .2" KAOO/KJST - .25" KUNV - .15" KBTP/KBVI - .05" all have 2m temps above 0C during heaviest period... I personally think it would be all snow that far west 0z Euro QPF update... not a major change but a little more than 12z yesterday had KPIT - .15" KLBE - .30" KAOO - .40" KJST - .33" KUNV - .20" KBTP - .1" KBVI - .1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Can't believe we are so close, 50-75 miles NW and we probably get a few inches! I guess at some point with every storm somebody has to be on the fringe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 When I saw that sickman was in our thread, it felt like there was a celebrity in town. But anyway, looking at the satellite loops, the system coming southeast out of the upper midwest could be a kicker and possibly limit the precip coming north. Basically it's gonna be a battle between the strength of the upper low vs. the strength of that kicker. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 First and Last Call.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 When I saw that sickman was in our thread, it felt like there was a celebrity in town. But anyway, looking at the satellite loops, the system coming southeast out of the upper midwest could be a kicker and possibly limit the precip coming north. Basically it's gonna be a battle between the strength of the upper low vs. the strength of that kicker. We will see. If what I see in the upper midwest is the same as what you are talking about, it is not very strong at all and I don't think it will have any influence on limiting the precip coming north with the storm currently near the Gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 First and Last Call.. Disagree highly with that map...this is not really going to be a north to south moving system, its going to slide from west to east. The gradient will be north to south much more than west to east, so I think that your snow totals in north central PA are WAY high...State College should not be in the 2-6 range as you have them, but the coating range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Haven't checked long range. Anything down the road look promising? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Haven't checked long range. Anything down the road look promising? Maybe something later next week. 06z GFS shows a storm developing in the gulf, it looks like, but it's currently getting pushed ots. We'll see if that one sticks around at all, and if it does, hopefully it'll trend west. That's a long way off of course, so who knows. Other than that, we may see some clippers come through the area giving us light accumulations. Nothing exciting there, but better than nothing I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Disagree highly with that map...this is not really going to be a north to south moving system, its going to slide from west to east. The gradient will be north to south much more than west to east, so I think that your snow totals in north central PA are WAY high...State College should not be in the 2-6 range as you have them, but the coating range. Even CrappuWeather's map is off in fantasy land with 3-6 for the Lehigh Valley...good luck with that. Majority of the precip will be offshore and the stuff that remains onshore will have temp issues. Look at the radar returns, blowing alot of warm air up form the gulf. Kentucky all rain, no sleet or snow. That exit stage right act when it hits the Delmarva will preclude anyone in PA, sans extreme SE Pa getting anything over the 1-3" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 20 miles south of my house gets .25, I get .1.. Can't believe this thing wouldn't go north. Any other year we would have been sweating it out hoping for it not to go to far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 12z GFS much better than NAM... closer to SREF precip output wise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 If what I see in the upper midwest is the same as what you are talking about, it is not very strong at all and I don't think it will have any influence on limiting the precip coming north with the storm currently near the Gulf Actually looking at it again, the center of the s/w is in western ontario, and it appears that its going to help try to push the precip more east-west than north-south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Found this on Live Weather Blogs from Rob Guarino We are wating for two models this morning...the NAM and the GFS. These models have been playing games the past few days and this is why the RECON plane is gonna take a trip into the storm. When a planes goes into a hurricane it samples all kinds of data, they will do the same with this storm. This data gets ingested into the models to help with the errors we have been seeing and the zig zag tracks. This plane will also help the models initialize better...meaning they get better raw data on the storm RIGHT NOW. I am so glad I did not buy into the NAM and GFS the last 72 hrs. I do buy into them now but other media outlets "were and still are" all over the place. In the end it always comes down to SIGNALS first...NAO/AO/PNA/LA NINA......PATTERN SECOND.....MODELS THIRD....AND 48 HR WINDOW LAST. If you go back to the audio/blog radio shows/blogs you'll see we stuck with that "PURE" EURO pattern for 5 days with a 3 layer cake theory and this looks right on at this point. The storm will be mainly snow for most...that simply means that the precip falling with this storm be 60-90% snow depending on your location. Pretty much everyone in the Mid Atlantic gets in the snow...question will be how much for your hometown. I do know he is speacking for the EC, and not our area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Haven't checked long range. Anything down the road look promising? 12z GFS and 0z Euro both showing potential for Feb 3rd... other than the clipper this weekend would be next big thing to keep an eye on (after tomorrow/thursday) to see if both continue to show it up the coast but still a long way out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 12z GFS and 0z Euro both showing potential for Feb 3rd... other than the clipper this weekend would be next big thing to keep an eye on (after tomorrow/thursday) to see if both continue to show it up the coast but still a long way out. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 12z Euro QPF KPIT - .21" KLBE - .39" KAOO - .65" KJST - .46" KUNV - .43" KAFJ - .35" KBVI/KBTP - ~.1" Pittsburgh is sooo close yet so far. 2m temps on Euro still end up above 0C briefly, but 18z temps for today are warmer than they actually are right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 12z Euro QPF KPIT - .21" KLBE - .39" KAOO - .65" KJST - .46" KUNV - .43" KAFJ - .35" KBVI/KBTP - ~.1" Pittsburgh is sooo close yet so far. 2m temps on Euro still end up above 0C briefly, but 18z temps for today are warmer than they actually are right now. Well, on the plus side, it looks like the Euro has been gradually upping our total qpf over the last couple of runs. I think at 1 point we were barely at .1 Even with bad ratios, that would probably yield 1-2 inches. It is frustrating to be so close. These sharp cutoff situations suck! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Looks like we could get another couple inches this weekend as well based off the Euro and GFS. Then next week they really seem to be in a bit of disagreement over timing / track. The GFS develops a storm it shows on the East Coast for later in the week (Thursday) while the Euro looks to track a system just to the west of our area on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 WOW! 18z NAM at 18 hours is WAY wetter and pretty far north with the precip shield...not sure if it will help us but it looks like it will be much closer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The WV loop is kinda crazy looking. It looks like a dry slot punching through KY is eventually going to meet that ribbon of dry air stretching from PA all the way back into MO. Not sure what that means? But overall its looking like 4th and 1 at the goal line. Dry air north and storm south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 WOW! 18z NAM at 18 hours is WAY wetter and pretty far north with the precip shield...not sure if it will help us but it looks like it will be much closer! Looks very simlar to the 12z GFS. It'll be interesting to see what the 18z GFS does. Will it hold serve with its last run or maybe shift closer to us as well. This thing is so close. That last second eastward shift before coming up into our area is what is killing us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Was reading in the Ohio thread that the radar images show the precip shield to be futher west than the NAM. Anybody else notice this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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