djr5001 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 15z SREF brings more precip further west than 9z http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREF21PCNTOTNE_15z/srefloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PittWeatherWatch Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 shift west damnit. hahahahahah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Euro QPF KPIT - .1" KLBE - .2" KAOO/KJST - .25" KUNV - .15" KBTP/KBVI - .05" all have 2m temps above 0C during heaviest period... I personally think it would be all snow that far west Thanks for the info, much appreciated! I would hope we would be all snow this far west! I am surprised 2m temps are so warm even out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 shift west damnit. hahahahahah Wow, that is frustrating! We only need like 50-75 NW shift to get in to the better precip. Even if that second precip max could head more ne rather than due east from the 48 panel we would be good. .1 - .15 with probably low ratios, we might squeeze a fresh inch out of it if things stay the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yes. I know that's a crappy answer, but it's all I have right now. I want to see the 0Z's before throwing in the towel. GFS looks "close" right now. It brings .5 QPF into Morgantown, as well as .75 to 1.0 into eastern KY and southwest WVa. I think we may need a northern adjustment more than a westward. This system has what appears to be a separate, yet significant area of precip to the west, away from the coast. We need this to close off a little sooner and swing the surface low further north before escaping off to the northeast. Stranger things have happened than the GFS creeping precip north by 100 miles in the last 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I want to see the 0Z's before throwing in the towel. GFS looks "close" right now. It brings .5 QPF into Morgantown, as well as .75 to 1.0 into eastern KY and southwest WVa. I think we may need a northern adjustment more than a westward. This system has what appears to be a separate, yet significant area of precip to the west, away from the coast. We need this to close off a little sooner and swing the surface low further north before escaping off to the northeast. Stranger things have happened than the GFS creeping precip north by 100 miles in the last 48 hours. It's funny that right after I made the post, I saw that the Jackson KY NWS issued a WSWatch for eastern KY, so that's interesting. Also despite all the differing solutions out there, one rather constant has been the blocking high off the east coast instead of in canada, this also is important. So as you noted, the heavier qpf in eastern KY will more than likely move further north than east, because of that off shore block, and the closed H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This one looks rather pedestrian, and that's about the best outlook at this point. It certainly is possible that changes. I'm still waiting for that great Miller A overrunning event to come get us like last winter, but I guess I'll be waiting a while, right? Maybe February will bring some white wonders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This one looks rather pedestrian, and that's about the best outlook at this point. It certainly is possible that changes. I'm still waiting for that great Miller A overrunning event to come get us like last winter, but I guess I'll be waiting a while, right? Maybe February will bring some white wonders We still have to see what The 00z NAM and GFS will show. That may be our last shot with this one. GFS shifted west today. Now, we need it to shift north as well. Slim chance at this point but we'll see how things go with the next couple of runs. I said Saturday that this looked to be a near miss for us and that's when the models got better for us. So, I'll say it again. Near miss for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Hmm...so far nam looks better..north and west. Stronger too with the precip in kentucky...will be interesting to see how it looks later in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The western shift in the low is likely, i am thinking a 6+ inch snow also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The western shift in the low is likely, i am thinking a 6+ inch snow also And what do you base this off of? Why do you think a shift is likely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The western shift in the low is likely, i am thinking a 6+ inch snow also Shocking... Less than 2 inches is likely. 6+ is not. You did not nail the last storm, btw. Also, I fund it funny how you and rants went away at the same time..you the same poster?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Shocking... Less than 2 inches is likely. 6+ is not. You did not nail the last storm, btw. Also, I fund it funny how you and rants went away at the same time..you the same poster?? NAM look east to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Snow gets to the pa southern border and slides east...going to be fun to watch that radar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NAM look east to you? Further north compared to 18z, but not enough..the whole system just looks so disorganized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Further north compared to 18z, but not enough..the whole system just looks so disorganized. I agree. Just not sure if the model is reflecting reality or if the model is just wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Snow gets to the pa southern border and slides east...going to be fun sickening to watch that radar... Fixed! Really, we don't need much of a shift to get in on some of the fun. I am not sure how likely we are to get a shift though as the models have been pretty consistent in keeping us on the fringe. Either way, not losing any sleep over this one any more. Will check the models tomorrow morning to see if the GFS/Euro can make a hail marry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Fixed! Really, we don't need much of a shift to get in on some of the fun. I am not sure how likely we are to get a shift though as the models have been pretty consistent in keeping us on the fringe. Either way, not losing any sleep over this one any more. Will check the models tomorrow morning to see if the GFS/Euro can make a hail marry. I just hope it screws dc, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What are the real chances of a double barrel low setup like the NAM is projecting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What are the real chances of a double barrel low setup like the NAM is projecting? 100 miles north and we get close to .5 qpf...some of the sref's are very bullish here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Shocking... Less than 2 inches is likely. 6+ is not. You did not nail the last storm, btw. Also, I fund it funny how you and rants went away at the same time..you the same poster?? Yeah i nailed the last one, haha, 5-9, everybody got the 5-7 range, End of story and yeah i am the same poster, i just sit back and watch you suckers, because it's just fun This storm is a nail bitter, i don't know what will happen, nobody does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Further north compared to 18z, but not enough..the whole system just looks so disorganized. I think organization is the key, a lot of my thoughts on saturday were based on this storm being relatively organized. So if this thing stays unorganized for too long, my outlook will be in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yeah i nailed the last one, haha, 5-9, everybody got the 5-7 range, End of story and yeah i am the same poster, i just sit back and watch you suckers, because it's just fun This storm is a nail bitter, i don't know what will happen, nobody does Lol, you lie....average was 4-6, I didn't see one report over 6 in the agc region. You busted low. ...you needed the area to average 6-8 to validate your forecast. Now mods, please moderate!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Lol, you lie....average was 4-6, I didn't see one report over 6 in the agc region. You busted low. ...you needed the area to average 6-8 to validate your forecast. Now mods, please moderate!!! Seriously between rants and this northpitt our thread has basically gone to Sh** . I've tried reporting, Im not sure if you guys have. Maybe we just need to all report them, so the mods know its seriously annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Seriously between rants and this northpitt our thread has basically gone to Sh** . I've tried reporting, Im not sure if you guys have. Maybe we just need to all report them, so the mods know its seriously annoying. I reported....northpitt is 5 posted now. Rants should be gone...it is painfully obvious he's the same guy...what we need is a Pittsburgh mod who actually watches the thread. We also need someone to stop this so Dave trygar (sp) willmpost and not be harassed and told he is too low by north pitt's and then have rants lecture him how les never works out in pit and that if he gets six inches of snow his house and the entire laurel highlands will collapse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I reported....northpitt is 5 posted now. Rants should be gone...it is painfully obvious he's the same guy...what we need is a Pittsburgh mod who actually watches the thread. We also need someone to stop this so Dave trygar (sp) willmpost and not be harassed and told he is too low by north pitt's and then have rants lecture him how les never works out in pit and that if he gets six inches of snow his house and the entire laurel highlands will collapse. Ignore works great..... Now if you guys would quit quoting him, I wouldn't have to see any of his posts at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What are the real chances of a double barrel low setup like the NAM is projecting? I'd keep an eye on that... Especially when models the last 5 days seem to be locking into two very separate tracks. Maybe there is an inland low that eventually consolidates with the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'd keep an eye on that... Especially when models the last 5 days seem to be locking into two very separate tracks. Maybe there is an inland low that eventually consolidates with the coastal. That would be an interesting scenario. I don't know, just seems like there is still some uncertainty with this one. While the models do appear to be coming to some agreement, it still seems like there are some unknown variables. Maybe we'll know for sure when NOAA starts recon flights which should be picked up by the NCEP models tomorrow. At any rate, I've pretty much accepted that we're not getting much of anything out of it, but sometimes it's nice to be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GFS is Further East... After 12Z maybe time to move on, unless you are east of say 220.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GFS is Further East... That should mak you happy rants! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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