Paweatherguy1 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I think we are done on this one...sorry, but the models suck? How does the nam go from inland/apps runner to ots in one run? Ggem did the same thing I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well, after looking at the nam we are done for sure...total garbage performance by the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 There are too many people convinced that the overall setup favors a westward shift to give up on this. I'm not talking anecdotal or because some weenie is saying he thinks it will. I mean sound support for it. Pretty good CTP discussion. If they are worried about P-type issues in part of their CWA, it's typically a good sign for us. Remember, models are just a tool not really meant for weenie consumption.... FOR NOW...THE TYPICAL UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING...TRACK AND INTENSITY OF UPPER LEVEL AND BOUNDARY LAYER FEATURES ARE IN PLAY. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF HAD BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT AND IMPRESSIVE DURING THE PAST 36 TO 48 HOURS...DEPICTING WHAT COULD BEST BE CHARACTERIZED AS A SUPERSTORM-TYPE SOLUTION THAT (IF VERIFIED) WOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER...SATURDAY ECMWF RUNS INDICATED A SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD SHIFT TO WHAT HAD BEEN A CONSISTENT SOLUTION...BOTH IN TERMS OF TRACK AND INTENSITY. THIS IS TO BE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF ECWS SCENARIOS DAYS IN ADVANCE...AND DOES NOT DIMINISH THE POTENTIAL PERSAY OF A LARGE WINTER STORM. IT DOES HOWEVER UNDERSCORE THE IMPORTANCE OF EXPRESSING UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR IN ADVANCE OF A POTENTIALLY LARGE STORM...AND TO FOCUS ON COMMUNICATING THAT UNCERTAINTY ALONG WITH TRENDS. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE LATEST ROUND OF 00Z/23 JAN GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE 00Z/23 OPERATIONAL ECMWF NOW TRACKS A STRONG SURFACE LOW SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SATURDAY`S "WIDE RIGHT" SOLUTION WELL OFFSHORE AND THU/FRI POTENTIALLY WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR CENTRAL PA...PRODUCING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWSTORM FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. THE 00Z/23 ECMWF SOLUTION CLOSELY MIRRORS THE 00Z/23 GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MSL FIELDS IN TRACK AND INTENSITY...WHICH STRENGTHENS CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST MINOR TO MODERATE IMPACTS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PA. GIVEN THE SOURCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW MAJOR EAST COAST WINTER STORMS OF THIS MONTH...THE EVENTUAL SOLUTIONS WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT UPON HOW STRONGLY UPPER LEVEL WAVES DIG THROUGH THE PLAINS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY... AND THE INTENSITY OF GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN CONVECTION PUNCHING UP AN OFFSHORE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. MODELS ARE NOTORIOUSLY POOR IN HANDLING THE STRENGTH OF SUCH WAVES AS THEY RIDE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGES...AND WITH A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN I DO EXPECT A GENERAL WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK OF DETERMINISTIC AND GEFS MEAN MSL SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY INTRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES FOR PARTS OF MY AREA...NAMELY THE SOUTHEAST...AND WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED ONCE A MORE CONFIDENT SOLUTION IS IN HAND. STAY TUNED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well, after looking at the nam we are done for sure...total garbage performance by the models. Well it does look fairly grim this AM, but the models have been all over the place with this since Thursday. So with all the cha cha, I am going to wait to see by 12z tommorrow. Used to be at 240+ we used to have these fantasy storms , now we get teased within 120. I wonder if the algorithm changes they did on some of the models the last few years made them more volatile to intialization errors and bad data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Well, after looking at the nam we are done for sure...total garbage performance by the models. Everyone knew performance would be poor with the current setup. Honestly, I think if models had better data sampling over all regions where our weather originates these wild swings would not occur. You have to consider, if during one run a model does not get any data or poorly sampled data about a shortwave that plays a major role in the development of a storm, then on subsequent runs gets better correct data its outcome will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 There are too many people convinced that the overall setup favors a westward shift to give up on this. I'm not talking anecdotal or because some weenie is saying he thinks it will. I mean sound support for it. Pretty good CTP discussion. If they are worried about P-type issues in part of their CWA, it's typically a good sign for us. Remember, models are just a tool not really meant for weenie consumption.... FOR NOW...THE TYPICAL UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING...TRACK AND INTENSITY OF UPPER LEVEL AND BOUNDARY LAYER FEATURES ARE IN PLAY. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF HAD BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT AND IMPRESSIVE DURING THE PAST 36 TO 48 HOURS...DEPICTING WHAT COULD BEST BE CHARACTERIZED AS A SUPERSTORM-TYPE SOLUTION THAT (IF VERIFIED) WOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER...SATURDAY ECMWF RUNS INDICATED A SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD SHIFT TO WHAT HAD BEEN A CONSISTENT SOLUTION...BOTH IN TERMS OF TRACK AND INTENSITY. THIS IS TO BE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF ECWS SCENARIOS DAYS IN ADVANCE...AND DOES NOT DIMINISH THE POTENTIAL PERSAY OF A LARGE WINTER STORM. IT DOES HOWEVER UNDERSCORE THE IMPORTANCE OF EXPRESSING UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR IN ADVANCE OF A POTENTIALLY LARGE STORM...AND TO FOCUS ON COMMUNICATING THAT UNCERTAINTY ALONG WITH TRENDS. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE LATEST ROUND OF 00Z/23 JAN GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE 00Z/23 OPERATIONAL ECMWF NOW TRACKS A STRONG SURFACE LOW SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SATURDAY`S "WIDE RIGHT" SOLUTION WELL OFFSHORE AND THU/FRI POTENTIALLY WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR CENTRAL PA...PRODUCING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWSTORM FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. THE 00Z/23 ECMWF SOLUTION CLOSELY MIRRORS THE 00Z/23 GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MSL FIELDS IN TRACK AND INTENSITY...WHICH STRENGTHENS CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST MINOR TO MODERATE IMPACTS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PA. GIVEN THE SOURCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW MAJOR EAST COAST WINTER STORMS OF THIS MONTH...THE EVENTUAL SOLUTIONS WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT UPON HOW STRONGLY UPPER LEVEL WAVES DIG THROUGH THE PLAINS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY... AND THE INTENSITY OF GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN CONVECTION PUNCHING UP AN OFFSHORE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. MODELS ARE NOTORIOUSLY POOR IN HANDLING THE STRENGTH OF SUCH WAVES AS THEY RIDE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGES...AND WITH A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN I DO EXPECT A GENERAL WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK OF DETERMINISTIC AND GEFS MEAN MSL SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY INTRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE ISSUES FOR PARTS OF MY AREA...NAMELY THE SOUTHEAST...AND WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED ONCE A MORE CONFIDENT SOLUTION IS IN HAND. STAY TUNED Yeah, I read that, and it does leave some reason for hope however I am not sure there will be enough of a NW correction (if one exists at all) to make this a big event for us. I agree with you though it would be foolish to just disregard this system until at least tomorrows 12z or 00z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yeah, I read that, and it does leave some reason for hope however I am not sure there will be enough of a NW correction (if one exists at all) to make this a big event for us. I agree with you though it would be foolish to just disregard this system until at least tomorrows 12z or 00z runs. True....the "NW correction" may wind up being the scenario where precip is high around UNV and then dies going westward. But I think the following still has a ton of potential.... + PNA = trough digging more = strong Gulf convection = ridging in the Atlantic = stronger, more westward storm Throw in the -NAO which is positioned further east and you have another factor which supports a stronger, warmer storm which will come further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Why is everyone giving up so far, all we nee is a nice shift to the west and its game on. There is still plenty of time left. Why I never seriously get hooked on models far out. CPA folks think a nice westerly shift will happen. 12z GFS has a westerly shift, the others will follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 CMC shows us some love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yes, its way too early to say its over,, We have what, 2 more days of models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yes, its way too early to say its over,, We have what, 2 more days of models. Yeah, I wouldn't say its over by any means either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 euro is west, precip is now in OH/KY according to the midwest storm thread in the midwest forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 euro is west, precip is now in OH/KY according to the midwest storm thread in the midwest forum. Is it really west or is the precip shield just further west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Is it really west or is the precip shield just further west? The precip shield is further west, its somewhat the same as the 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 .29 for pit according to the OV thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 .29 for pit according to the OV thread I apologize for yawning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Is it really west or is the precip shield just further west? It's slightly west and the precip shield is further west, I think. I also think it's a little less wrapped up. That could be a big deal because we've gotten big storms off what the Euro is showing now, but there has tended to be modeled with a sharp cutoff. Hope that trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 .29 for pit according to the OV thread Thats an awesome start actually, I would expect the trend to continue and us to be near .6 by tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 After living out this way for four years in undergrad and then being out here again for school once more, I've realized that big storms are just so rare and difficult to come by. So far this winter the largest storm has been about 4", where the standard seems to be just one or two inches from the clippers passing by. For those that have lived here all their lives, with the exception of last winter, how many storms have you guys seen over 6"? Over 12"? I'd imagine they are not common. In five years or so I've seen only one storm over 6". Synoptic snows obviously are not the norm, where lake effect typically builds up in small intervals to provide the season total (or so it seems to me). Anyway, with regard to the current threat, I'd like to see something decent out this way. Hopefully we can shift this west. Normally I'd be cursing such a prognostication haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 HM Storm map. Looks like he thinkg Pgh all snow. http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/44821/sunday-afternoon-storm-map-update.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 HM Storm map. Looks like he thinkg Pgh all snow. http://www.accuweath...-map-update.asp It says "snow is possible". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 unless it came really west, i don't think we would have mixing issues being on the back end, however i'd be willing to accept some initial mixing if it meant higher snow totals later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NAM looks bad, much more progressive and never cuts the H5 low off and trough still neutral / positive by 72. Looks like this run goes into the Eastern outlier envelope for now. I like that the Euro seemed to loose that tight cutoff gradient and at least give Pittsburgh .29. At this point if we could only get the low to track a bit further north before it starts going ENE we would be in good shape. This may not end up being a big storm for us but if we could squeeze another 4-6 our of it I think most people would take that over nothing. Heck, Id take 2-4 out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 After living out this way for four years in undergrad and then being out here again for school once more, I've realized that big storms are just so rare and difficult to come by. So far this winter the largest storm has been about 4", where the standard seems to be just one or two inches from the clippers passing by. For those that have lived here all their lives, with the exception of last winter, how many storms have you guys seen over 6"? Over 12"? I'd imagine they are not common. In five years or so I've seen only one storm over 6". Synoptic snows obviously are not the norm, where lake effect typically builds up in small intervals to provide the season total (or so it seems to me). Anyway, with regard to the current threat, I'd like to see something decent out this way. Hopefully we can shift this west. Normally I'd be cursing such a prognostication haha. The largest storm this winter was 7.5"....albeit it took a couple days. Second was about 5.5". But we've had 32" this winter, which isn't too bad. The nice thing about this area is everything doesn't have to go perfectly to see a good bit of snow over the long term. But we do suffer from big storm frustration sometimes. Over 6"? Climo averages 2 per year. Over 12"? A Little rough in the last 15 years. Obviously Feb 5-6 with over 21". Before that was President's Day '03, however parts of the area got a foot in Dec '03. Before that, the last official 12+ was 1994, although many got over a foot in '96. Before that was of course '93. Most people saw over 20" in the '93 and '94 storms. If you go back about 35 years, I can count 7 or 8 12"+ storms (6 officially, and 1 or 2 where it was the norm in a lot of places. So recent climo says about 1 in 5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 HERE WE GO STEELERS, HERE WE GO!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 YES!!!! Let's do it boys.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 steelers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 steelers I haven't seen a Steelers thread in sports. I am afraid to make one fearing it jinxes them, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I haven't seen a Steelers thread in sports. I am afraid to make one fearing it jinxes them, lol. i haven't either? 24-3 - go steelers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 They did it, but losing Pouncey is going to kill them IMO.. I am happy they got this far, But Rodgers IMO is a bad matchup, especially in a dome on turf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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