RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Maybe my reverse psychology is going to work! Latest NAM looks pretty good for us. The Canadian and NOGAPS also look good for us. Here's the latest NAM run. If there was a High Pressure where the NAM shows that weak low north of Lake Superior the NAM would probably be a Blizzard for our area. In all seriousness though it is reasuring to see the NAM go back West tonight after its 18z was looking east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 If I'm not mistaken, wasn't the January 4, 1994 storm an Apps runner? I thought I remember Dennis Bowman talking about how they initially thought it was going to go up the coast but it ended up going up the spine of the Apps instead. I know one of those early 90s storms did that, if it wasn't the 94 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 If I'm not mistaken, wasn't the January 4, 1994 storm an Apps runner? I thought I remember Dennis Bowman talking about how they initially thought it was going to go up the coast but it ended up going up the spine of the Apps instead. I know one of those early 90s storms did that if it wasn't the 94 storm. I believe the blizzard of 1994 was a apps runner. The 1993 storm was an I-95 rider, the 1950 storm rode the spine. The December 1890 storm was an inland runner as well. edit: Yep, The 1994 storm was an apps runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman5416 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 He thinks a 1993 type of scenario, according to his blog. Yeah, just about 2/3 the strength. I think that he is overdoing it there, but I like his general idea of the track. I'll be interested to see the GFS. We are getting to the time when the models should be converging on an idea, so hopefully we can get a better consensus tonight after the 00Z model suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Wonder if the NAM extrapolated would move East or not? According to earlier NWS State College discussion, they said that the NAM extrapolated would move too far east to affect Central PA. Looking at the aim radar, it would be VERY close.., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Wonder if the NAM extrapolated would move East or not? According to earlier NWS State College discussion, they said that the NAM extrapolated would move too far east to affect Central PA. It would almost have to move due east to miss Central PA on the 00z Run from where it is on the 84 hour panel. Maybe they were referring to the 18z NAM which definitely looked like it was going to go east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Trough looks a little more SW on the GFS at 48 hours compared to the NAM, but over all I think it is pretty similar to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It would almost have to move due east to miss Central PA on the 00z Run from where it is on the 84 hour panel. Maybe they were referring to the 18z NAM which definitely looked like it was going to go east? That part of the long term has been there all day, they were actually talking about the 12z NAM/09z SREF mean. The new NAM would almost certainly be a nice strike for Central PA at least a decent one for western PA IMO. Very reminiscent of the 12z Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Trough looks a little more SW on the GFS at 48 hours compared to the NAM, but over all I think it is pretty similar to this point. If it stays the same, this just shows how much the models suck. How can the two American models be 500 miles apart at this time frame,???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 If it stays the same, this just shows how much the models suck. How can the two American models be 500 miles apart at this time frame,???? But the NAM is more of a short-term model, and GFS is more medium-long term. To me, NAM at 84 hours is similar to GFS/Euro at 144+. <Cue the flames because the NAM looks more favorable than the GFS/Euro.> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 That part of the long term has been there all day, they were actually talking about the 12z NAM/09z SREF mean. The new NAM would almost certainly be a nice strike for Central PA at least a decent one for western PA IMO. Very reminiscent of the 12z Canadian. That makes sense, I figured it had to be based off an older model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Anyone notice any difference on the gfs? Lol From the prior run or the nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 From the prior run or the nam? I was just comparing to the prior run, and it seemed drastic so far. Idk i haven't been looking to much, maybe i shouldn't have been so quick to make a joke haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman5416 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Wow, it appears to me to be much farther west. Also, I just talked to Dave Trygar on Twitter and he just joined here, said he will post at some point, but probably not tonight as he has to go right after the 11:00 clock news. It will be nice to have a Pittsburgh meteorologist on here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Gfs is going to be, at the very least, a MASSIVE step in the right direction...18z at 84 had a low off the s Carolina coast...78 on 00z has it on the bama georgia border! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I was just comparing to the prior run, and it seemed drastic so far. Idk i haven't been looking to much, maybe i shouldn't have been so quick to make a joke haha. I had t seen out to 78 yet. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yeah, definitely a huge step in the right direction. Really surprised the gfs ended up as east as it did though after 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Gfs is going to be, at the very least, a MASSIVE step in the right direction...18z at 84 had a low off the s Carolina coast...78 on 00z has it on the bama georgia border! I agree, at 78 the trough is more nuetral tilted while the NAM was negative, but it should be much futher west than previous runs. Definitely a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Lol...of course it just slides it it's off the carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yeah, definitely a huge step in the right direction. Really surprised the gfs ended up as east as it did though after 84. Does it really make sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Lol...of course it just slides it it's off the carolinas. I guess the difference is the tilt of the trough like you mentioned above. Until the GFS goes with the other models, and shows a negative tilt, it's probably going to keep scooting it off the coast. But, it seems to be getting closer anyway. Plus, it shows a high over Eastern PA at hour 78 that might be affecting the track? Maybe with the next few runs you'll see the GFS push the low further west and the trough eventually go negative. It'll be interesting to see what happens with it tomorrow and if the others continue to show the inland track. I wonder what the Euro will show later? I won't be up for that but I'll check it out in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I guess the difference is the tilt of the trough like you mentioned above. Until the GFS goes with the other models, and shows a negative tilt, it's probably going to keep scooting it off the coast. But, it seems to be getting closer anyway. Maybe with the next few runs you'll see the GFS push the low further west and the trough eventually go negative. It'll be interesting to see what happens with it tomorrow and if the others continue to show the inland track. I wonder what the Euro will show later? I won't be up for that but I'll check it out in the morning. Yeah, Im probably going to bed too. Had the GFS showed a major hit for our area I might have stayed up but gotta conserve strength for the Steeler game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Wow, it appears to me to be much farther west. Also, I just talked to Dave Trygar on Twitter and he just joined here, said he will post at some point, but probably not tonight as he has to go right after the 11:00 clock news. It will be nice to have a Pittsburgh meteorologist on here! Nice work! Glad to hear he plans on posting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yeah, Im probably going to bed too. Had the GFS showed a major hit for our area I might have stayed up but gotta conserve strength for the Steeler game. Exactly! I have a busy day myself tomorrow! I won't be doing much model watching tomorrow for obvious reasons! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Here is an interesting discussion on the storm from a student at Millersville who posts regularly on Accuweather. He is thinking an Apps runner. http://www.akstormtr...7.blogspot.com/ I'm on board with this kid.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 0z European brings trace QPF to Pittsburgh and about .15 to Latrobe. It has come back west a bit from 12z, but sounds like the western QPF field isn't very good again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I said I wouldn't be up right now, but here I am. Anyway, 00z NOGAPS and Canadian both shifted east. Quite a shift from the 12z for both. Not good for us obviously. Watching these models shift back and forth can give you a headache after a while! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I said I wouldn't be up right now, but here I am. Anyway, 00z NOGAPS and Canadian both shifted east. Quite a shift from the 12z for both. Not good for us obviously. Watching these models shift back and forth can give you a headache after a while! Tell me about it haha. Luckily I think there's something on tomorrow to distract us all for a little bit. And then hopefully coming back to a bomb just east of the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawx1 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 moderate to heavy snow right now. Probably around 1/4 inch so far...it is beautiful to watch. time 3: 02 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I said I wouldn't be up right now, but here I am. Anyway, 00z NOGAPS and Canadian both shifted east. Quite a shift from the 12z for both. Not good for us obviously. Watching these models shift back and forth can give you a headache after a while! Yeah, pretty much everything is still a good bit east at this point. Ill give it til 12z Monday but I am starting to loose optimism for anything noteworthy out of this storm. Even the western solutions are not that great for us at this point. The NAM looked good last night, but it looked similar to the GFS which just slid off the coast so who knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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