blackngoldrules Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 And also that the GFS is total crap. So is he saying we should ignore the GFS from now on since it's total crap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 So is he saying we should ignore the GFS from now on since it's total crap? We better ignore every model then...I mean every model is now east...euro still to come but it will probably shift too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 We better ignore every model then...I mean every model is now east...euro still to come but it will probably shift too... You've been reading Philly/NYC peeps too much.... GGEM looks great to me with the surface placement....but it closes off a little far north. If we get that to happen a tad sooner, you will see much more QPF on the western side. UKMET....not sure....SLP did look further east, but I didn't see what's going on at H5. Can't stress enough how that affects what we get. If the Euro looks dramatically different, then I may start to worry. Edit: By the radio play by play, Euro looks like a tremendous setup for us. Basically a captured 980 low in the Chesapeke and then over the Delmarva. Verbatim however, it crushes central and even west/central PA., and tails off a lot by the time it gets to Pittsburgh. Probably would only be 2" or 3" taken literally, but a big one is still very much in play IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Euro gives us .25-.50 qpf...however, state college gets like two feet if snow...100 mile push west and we get slaughtered.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Euro gives us .25-.50 qpf...however, state college gets like two feet if snow...100 mile push west and we get slaughtered.... Just good to see we're still in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Just good to see we're still in the game. Btw, love seeing jets fans thumping their chest in the NYC thread...they have NO chance Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 eff them -- complaining about sigs. Burgh, any insight on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Burgh, any insight on the Euro? Just what I and PAweatherguy1 said above --> looks like a great setup, but QPF tails off tremendously in the 120 miles between UNV and PIT. Long time to work out those details though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Euro gives us .25-.50 qpf...however, state college gets like two feet if snow...100 mile push west and we get slaughtered.... I think they overdid the QPF reports from that area.....more like 1.3" So a tight gradient, but maybe not quite as extreme as it first sounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I got some Euro printout QPF to pass along, although not sure if many in here are gonna be too thrilled haha. I won't see the full Euro for at least another hour but it's pretty evident that the tight cutoff exists between central PA and the Pittsburgh region like the 12z Euro had it. Johnstown is about 0.8", Latrobe is in the realm of 0.4-0.5", and then unfortunately Butler and Pittsburgh (KPIT) are about negligible with QPF, with about an event total of maybe 0.1" at best. GGEM was better at getting some snowfall into Pittsburgh. I'd say if the current Euro/GGEM track panned out I wouldn't think that Pitt would be completely shut out by this. Might not see the heaviest totals but something on the order to a few to several inches. On the other hand, western gradients have been brutal this year for interior/western PA with the coastal storms we've had. Perhaps we can bust the trend on this one. Still lots of time to watch this and the usual major track/QPF/precip type implications with whatever the models eventually close in on. Of course the GFS could be right, and whatever snow we got would be over by Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I am glad I was distracted by the snow last night....if I would have seen that, and then seen it go to .27 inches of QPF today, I might have blown a gasket....how the HELL does a model shift THAT much in 12 hours in the 5 day range...that is approaching a range that you should be getting a good idea, not a freaking 400 mile shift. Well the 6z GFS seems to be slipping even a little more east. The trend continues and this maybe a strong coastal rainstorm for a few.....fat lady warming up. Not getting my hopes up here, if I were in State College I wouldn't be either. I saw an explanation about east based NAO and how that prevents storms from pushing too far west, that is what we got. If you live in Upstate NY, Scranton, interior NE, they may get pounded. The one model run got everyone excited but it looked like an anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well the 6z GFS seems to be slipping even a little more east. The trend continues and this maybe a strong coastal rainstorm for a few.....fat lady warming up. Not getting my hopes up here, if I were in State College I wouldn't be either. I saw an explanation about east based NAO and how that prevents storms from pushing too far west, that is what we got. If you live in Upstate NY, Scranton, interior NE, they may get pounded. The one model run got everyone excited but it looked like an anomaly. The good news is that the Euro's idea has been pretty consistent.... The recent bad news is that taken literally, there has been a sharp western cutoff and we aren't getting much. This is actually not a negative NAO - if I-95 weenies are saying that, they are just wishing. It's more neutral....with less blocking...... which I believe supports an earlier phase and more western track. In fact, that is normally the type of situation where we worry about too far inland. I'd give it at least another day or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The good news is that the Euro's idea has been pretty consistent.... The recent bad news is that taken literally, there has been a sharp western cutoff and we aren't getting much. This is actually not a negative NAO - if I-95 weenies are saying that, they are just wishing. It's more neutral....with less blocking...... which I believe supports an earlier phase and more western track. In fact, that is normally the type of situation where we worry about too far inland. I'd give it at least another day or two It is a -NAO, but it's over Iceland and the Norwegian Sea, so you're correct with your synoptic analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It is a -NAO, but it's over Iceland and the Norwegian Sea, so you're correct with your synoptic analysis. Thanks for the clarification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 here it is: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 here it is: Congrats Monroeville! (get us some pics, Meatwad) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I wouldn't even sweat the indivdual model runs right now, the overall setup has been pretty consistant for a few days now. I dont think the details will really be clear until monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Congrats Monroeville! (get us some pics, Meatwad) I will, and if it falls during the day, I'll get videos, and then I'll get post them on youtube. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Anyone have any low temps to report? I'm at -4 IMBY still I saw Zanesville got to -11. Wash PA went to -13 I think the airport just made it down to 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 -1°F here in Monroeville, got down to -5°F this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 the 6z gfs is still averting double-digit below zero temps to start of February. Amazing winter is Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 WOW!!! If you extrapolate out the nam after 84 it would bomb us mist likely. Great start to the 12z suite! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 WOW!!! If you extrapolate out the nam after 84 it would bomb us mist likely. Great start to the 12z suite! Looking good. We just need to get the gfs to come on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Looking good. We just need to get the gfs to come on board. Pretty amazing how far apart the two are right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 WOW!!! If you extrapolate out the nam after 84 it would bomb us mist likely. Great start to the 12z suite! Yeah definitely looks good! At this point I'm not worried about to far West, as I'd take a slop storm over no storm but the NAM could be cutting it close. Obviously this needs to be taken with a grain of salt since its the NAM at 84 and I think it was also to wound up with our last system in the longer range but if the rest of the 12z suite follows then Guess Iv been sucked into watching the pbp's for the 12z models today. Would be nice to see the GFS come around though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS finally agrees with the other global models on a Miller A event. Trough is neutral to positive at 84 while the NAM is already negative. GFS will be pretty far east I think but considering how far off it has been the last few runs might take a couple more runs to fully catch on. Will be interesting to see what the other models say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I ain't gonna lie, a small part of me is hoping for a east coast wash out, especially 40 south. And that williamsport gets a blizzard, so they can finally be happy. On to the weather, next week looks solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS finally agrees with the other global models on a Miller A event. Trough is neutral to positive at 84 while the NAM is already negative. GFS will be pretty far east I think but considering how far off it has been the last few runs might take a couple more runs to fully catch on. Will be interesting to see what the other models say. Yep, big changes... Before we could worry about east/west on the GFS, it at least had to drop the clipper/ miller B and catch on to the gulf low idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I ain't gonna lie, a small part of me is hoping for a east coast wash out, especially 40 south. And that williamsport gets a blizzard, so they can finally be happy. On to the weather, next week looks solid. LOL! I just got absolutely pounced on for asking a question about the setup and why even with an ideal track DC could still be rained, as some mets are saying....I got told to go back to the PItts forum...the Philly mets however were cool about it and explained it to me.....I really just can't stand a lot of those DC posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 LOL! I just got absolutely pounced on for asking a question about the setup and why even with an ideal track DC could still be rained, as some mets are saying....I got told to go back to the PItts forum...the Philly mets however were cool about it and explained it to me.....I really just can't stand a lot of those DC posters. They're just annoyed by your Pitt logo because Pitt crushed Georgetown a couple of weeks ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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