RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Id take my chances with this solution and be ok if we got a couple ours of sleet or mixing just to be sure we weren't to far west. As modeled, this looks like a MAJOR hit for us. A 980 low over the Delmarva, with fat closed 500 low. Nice I95 rainstorm it appears. I can't read this damn model very well, but the 540 thickness line appears to be running through central PA. Maybe a tiny, tiny bit too far west. Shades of April '87 maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I got a little under 6" here.. My map was off, but only by an inch in most places, some places I was dead on others not... I will take it for my first ever map Main Roads clear to some snow, not bad.. Side Roads still bad in some areas. Crews did a good job, people need to chill with them. 12 hour shifts are tough and to get every road completely clear is asking alot. But the real store right now.. GO STEELERS!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I am sure there will be many ups and downs each model run. From rain to slop to 20 inches of snow, then back to nothing. I'll take something in between. Thank you very much. Yep, and a very good example would be the 12z GFS. Has the low back off the coast again. I'm sure this is going to change a lot over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yep, and a very good example would be the 12z GFS. Has the low back off the coast again. I'm sure this is going to change a lot over the next few days. Yeah 12z goes away from a wound up Miller A to a Miller B setup which only manages to give us about .25 over a 36 hour period lol. Hope this is just one of the ups and downs and not the start of a trend considering a lot of the ensembles from the models showed a weaker more easterly solution from what I can gather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yeah 12z goes away from a wound up Miller A to a Miller B setup which only manages to give us about .25 over a 36 hour period lol. Hope this is just one of the ups and downs and not the start of a trend considering a lot of the ensembles from the models showed a weaker more easterly solution from what I can gather. This would give New York and New Jersey another 20+ snow. wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This would give New York and New Jersey another 20+ snow. wow. And if we think strange attractants in mathematics that is a likely scenario. Seems like snow begets snow and certain environmental variables remain sorta constant in a given Winter like Nina or Nina that time after time seems to cause a likely outcome. Look at Dc\Philly last year, storm after storm hitting the same area. Kinda of like why in some years hurricanes seem to hit almost the same area multiple times or how tornadoes hit that same town in Oklahoma over and over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 And if we think strange attractants in mathematics that is a likely scenario. Seems like snow begets snow and certain environmental variables remain sorta constant in a given Winter like Nina or Nina that time after time seems to cause a likely outcome. Look at Dc\Philly last year, storm after storm hitting the same area. Kinda of like why in some years hurricanes seem to hit almost the same area multiple times or how tornadoes hit that same town in Oklahoma over and over. Its called a "weather pattern." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Its called a "weather pattern." Patterns have to do with temperature trends or spells of dry, wet, or snowy weather . I was talking more single low pressure events, like hurricanes, typhoons, snowstorms, etc. Think of a weather pattern as lets say a trend in baseball game of a pitcher throwing curveballs on every third pitch. What I was talking about was that very same curveball constantly hitting the same place in the strike zone each time. It is curious that the way the pitcher holds the ball, the winds that day, the humidity, etc can influences the exact location where the ball hits the catchers mitt. So my thoughts were that like the baseball analogy, the atmosphere creates a "groove" or an environment that allows events to repeat themselves over and over until the variables change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Browsing through all the regional threads, it looks like Pittsburgh is on the western fringe of the potential big storm on most of the models. Hopefully the precip field can expand west some more or the whole low track can be a bit further west. The qpf amounts people are posting are amazing... right now p-type is not an issue for us, its the amount that makes its way into our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Patterns have to do with temperature trends or spells of dry, wet, or snowy weather . I was talking more single low pressure events, like hurricanes, typhoons, snowstorms, etc. Think of a weather pattern as lets say a trend in baseball game of a pitcher throwing curveballs on every third pitch. What I was talking about was that very same curveball constantly hitting the same place in the strike zone each time. It is curious that the way the pitcher holds the ball, the winds that day, the humidity, etc can influences the exact location where the ball hits the catchers mitt. So my thoughts were that like the baseball analogy, the atmosphere creates a "groove" or an environment that allows events to repeat themselves over and over until the variables change. http://www.accuweath...for-the-mid.asp There obviously is more to pattern than the presence of a La Nina, a common anomaly in tropical Pacific Ocean temperature. The strength of the feature may perhaps have more say in the matter. Other oceans have their anomalies as well. According to Long Range Weather Pattern Expert Paul Pastelok, "If there is one big thing we could blame on the failure of winter to release its grip early in January, it would be the persistence of a feature known as the Greenland Block." This feature, a buckle in the jet stream, or the river of air high in the atmosphere, in the vicinity of Greenland, typically shows up a couple of times a winter for a few weeks at a time. There can be some winters it never shows or it could hang tough most of the season. "Until recently the block has held fast, " Pastelok said. Usually, its presence not only drives cold air into the eastern U.S. from central Canada but also works against big storms running up the coast. "Interestingly, this winter it has shifted its position just enough to allow most storms to run the Atlantic Coast, only to return to position, once each storm departs," Pastelok added. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman5416 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 After the discussion of how bad our Pittsburgh TV mets are, I went looking at some of the Wheeling TV stations and I found that one of the stations has a video blog everyday on youtube. I have listened to some of the videos and he seems like he knows what he is talking about. Here is the link. http://www.youtube.c...RFStormTracker7 Here is the guy's biography http://wtrf.com/bios.cfm?func=viewbio&bioid=135 ... very impressive, hold a Ph.D. in environmental studies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Browsing through all the regional threads, it looks like Pittsburgh is on the western fringe of the potential big storm on most of the models. Hopefully the precip field can expand west some more or the whole low track can be a bit further west. The qpf amounts people are posting are amazing... right now p-type is not an issue for us, its the amount that makes its way into our area. 120hrs out and we are on the western fringe...that has rollercoaster and heartache written all over it. Nice storm, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Browsing through all the regional threads, it looks like Pittsburgh is on the western fringe of the potential big storm on most of the models. Hopefully the precip field can expand west some more or the whole low track can be a bit further west. The qpf amounts people are posting are amazing... right now p-type is not an issue for us, its the amount that makes its way into our area. Well 5 days out I'm not so sure this is a bad place to be. Like others have said the models will probably change a few times as we get closer. My question is the scenario that we've seen in the models plausible from a meterlogical perspective? I recall earlier this week when this storm was showing up that people were saying that the models were producing a solution that wasn't really legitimate. Is this still the case? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 After the discussion of how bad our Pittsburgh TV mets are, I went looking at some of the Wheeling TV stations and I found that one of the stations has a video blog everyday on youtube. I have listened to some of the videos and he seems like he knows what he is talking about. Here is the link. http://www.youtube.c...RFStormTracker7 Here is the guy's biography http://wtrf.com/bios...ewbio&bioid=135 ... very impressive, hold a Ph.D. in environmental studies. Good find -- that is an impressive bio, to say the least. I don't know why the guy got into TV ... his employment background suggests that he would continue on the research scientist path. Might have been for personal or other reasons. I also like the team at WTOV9 -- Jeff Oechslein and Kevin Carter. They're solid meteorologists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 dgex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 120hrs out and we are on the western fringe...that has rollercoaster and heartache written all over it. Nice storm, though. Been the story of this winter...everything has been HOPING for the westward trend, but it hasn't happened...and the models already adjusted east today....not much confidence on this one given the way the winter has gone so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Been the story of this winter...everything has been HOPING for the westward trend, but it hasn't happened...and the models already adjusted east today....not much confidence on this one given the way the winter has gone so far. Seems like the trend this winter has been the models initially showing a storm out to sea, then they have a pretty significant trend to the west that gives us a nice hit, then they readjust to the east just enough to miss us but clobber the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Been the story of this winter...everything has been HOPING for the westward trend, but it hasn't happened...and the models already adjusted east today....not much confidence on this one given the way the winter has gone so far. Yep latest GFS, is pretty much just some snow showers. Haven't given up. But unlike last winter can't rely on precip comping way West. Can't complain about winter so far though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I definitely think we are firmly still in the game. The Euro has been pretty consistent with it's features (from what I can tell), but moved the heavier QPF a little east with the last run. The Canadian is still pretty consistent with I posted before. If you take that DGEX posted above out to the end of the storm, it brings us into the .5" to .75 QPF. However, it has local QPF maxes well over 1" to our north AND south. It kind of bends around us. Now, of course we see more GFS than any other model, and it has not really cooperated. But remember it has a SE bias in situations where you have a potentially rapidly developing low. So basically we have two pretty good models showing either a huge hit....or close to it. And as I said before, the GFS is in a setup and time frame where it tends to have a bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I definitely think we are firmly still in the game. The Euro has been pretty consistent with it's features (from what I can tell), but moved the heavier QPF a little east with the last run. The Canadian is still pretty consistent with I posted before. Now, of course we see more GFS than any other model, and it has not really cooperated. But remember it has a SE bias in situations where you have a potentially rapidly developing low. So basically we have two pretty good models showing either a huge hit....or close to it. And as I said before, the GFS is in a setup and time frame where it tends to have a bias. Agreed, being this far out and being in the game is not a bad situation. I was reading over in the CPA thread and MAG mentioned that the neutral NAO might help it track a bit further west. He also mentioned that if it phases too quickly it might track too far west. That might be bad for CPA but ok for us. It will be interesting to see what the 0z Candaian and Euro show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The 00Z Euro was amazing! 2 inches QPF, all wind-blown snow. The 6Z GFS seems to have a similar idea; I think this really has some potential. I am glad I was distracted by the snow last night....if I would have seen that, and then seen it go to .27 inches of QPF today, I might have blown a gasket....how the HELL does a model shift THAT much in 12 hours in the 5 day range...that is approaching a range that you should be getting a good idea, not a freaking 400 mile shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman5416 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I am glad I was distracted by the snow last night....if I would have seen that, and then seen it go to .27 inches of QPF today, I might have blown a gasket....how the HELL does a model shift THAT much in 12 hours in the 5 day range...that is approaching a range that you should be getting a good idea, not a freaking 400 mile shift. I honestly think that we bave nothing to be concerned about... The models will do their usually back and forth changes before coming to a solution. DT at wxrisk.com has a good write up on what is going to happen. I suggest reading it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I am glad I was distracted by the snow last night....if I would have seen that, and then seen it go to .27 inches of QPF today, I might have blown a gasket....how the HELL does a model shift THAT much in 12 hours in the 5 day range...that is approaching a range that you should be getting a good idea, not a freaking 400 mile shift. Relax, the general idea it has is very consistent....I think the 1" line is as far west as Westmoreland and Fayette then cuts off quickly. It didn't shift that dramatically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I honestly think that we bave nothing to be concerned about... The models will do their usually back and forth changes before coming to a solution. DT at wxrisk.com has a good write up on what is going to happen. I suggest reading it. Tolleris's writeup basically says the storm will be inland enough to change I-95 to rain, with the heavy snow considerably inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Tolleris's writeup basically says the storm will be inland enough to change I-95 to rain, with the heavy snow considerably inland. Well, I HOPE he is right....we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman5416 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Tolleris's writeup basically says the storm will be inland enough to change I-95 to rain, with the heavy snow considerably inland. And also that the GFS is total crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The 84 nam looks good. It looks like it is digging and could be ready to shoot the storm up the coast. Lets hope the gfs comes back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Meanwhile....it's 3 degrees IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 7°F here attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I'm at 6 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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