CoraopolisWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Some nice returns popping up in Eastern Ohio.. Snow looks like its clearing Western Ohio.. Looks like the trough is turning the precip a bit more toward a north-south orientation, so it probably won't clear though our area, as fast as it cleared through western oh. Yeah, looks like that forcing mentioned earlier is coming into eastern oh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Here in bethel park no way do we have 2.5".... Maybe 1-1.5" I'd say.... I hope it keeps snowing hard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 1.75 inches. Just measured 15 min ago. May be 2 now. Coming down pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Looks like the trough is turning the precip a bit more toward a north-south orientation, so it probably won't clear though our area, as fast as it cleared through western oh. Yeah, looks like that forcing mentioned earlier is coming into eastern oh. I was thinking that to be the case too, but figured it may have been my radar hallucinations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Looks like the trough is turning the precip a bit more toward a north-south orientation, so it probably won't clear though our area, as fast as it cleared through western oh. Yeah, looks like that forcing mentioned earlier is coming into eastern oh. The snow bands are going NE, But the whole system looks to be going East.. So you almost have to look at a ENE action. Columbus Airport reported 4.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 There is a huge area of snow in WV, but on NWS Radar it looks like its heading east.. http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php This is a weird system and very difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 As of 6:51 p.m., 0.15" liquid-equivalent precipitation has fallen at KPIT. NWS PIT measured 1.9" snow at 7:03 p.m. this evening. Thus, ratios during the early portion of this storm are turning out to be ~12-13 : 1. I expect ratios to increase a bit as temps cool somewhat over the next few hours. 18z NAM QPF seems to be doing well, too, based on what has fallen so far. Given all of that, I think another 2-4" of snow should fall this evening through about 1 - 3 a.m. this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 As the primary comes north to our east I woul imagine the backedge would slow and pivot through our area. Have about 2 inches here, and would say it's coming down about .75 inches an hour or so...4 inches is almost a sure bet IMO, I think we end up closer to 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Just got home a little bit ago. Roads are covered everywhere now. I had to creep home since I had to take a lot of back roads. Anyway, I have 2 inches now in Bethel. Just measured a couple of minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Look at this at 384 GFS, I don't thnk I have ever seen bright yellow on the models, except in a tropical system. Can you imagine living in the Sierra Nevadas, what is that like 100" of snow in a 60 hr period. Can you say Donner Party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Ivory's reasoning was lack of a closed H5 low. Historically, that is a perfectly valid line of thought for Pittsburgh with Ohio Valley lows and coastal transfers. This really was not consistent until the final few model runs, despite the high QPF's creeping closer. The Feb 5th storm was NOT in any way shape or form a slam dunk HERE. Places to the east had 2.0" to 2.5" QPF totals and had about a 200 mile radius of the same. So if something went a little wrong in DC....no biggie...a shift still meant 20" a snow. With us, a shift would have changed things a bunch. My complaint about the locals was not adjusting in mid storm. The H5 low and strong mid level jet was in order, there was already a foot on the ground, the 0Z's showed another foot possible, and radar was certainly incredible. Why didn't they adjust to something better than 12-14" at 11:00PM? That I have no idea. But my ultimate point is we do need to back off and not compare everything to Feb 5th. They have been fine in the last 11 months. The NWS was good on Feb 5th, and has also been very good since. I would love to get to point where I am reading people like Ivory's or Bologna's comments here, instead of some 17 year old kid in the North Hills. I think letting that busted forecast go may help our chances Agree, it would be great to have a local Met in for discussion in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Look at this at 384 GFS, I don't thnk I have ever seen bright yellow on the models, except in a tropical system. Can you imagine living in the Sierra Nevadas, what is that like 100" of snow in a 60 hr period. Can you say Donner Party.<img src="http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p60_384l.gif" Thankfully, that's the 384 and will probably change with the very next run. But yeah, that's very unusual. That would set records if it happened! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Picked up 2.5 inches of snow so far, thinking that some new bands may form on the backside, snow will last overnight based on what i am seeing on the radar Keeping the 5-9 inch totals Nailed another storm in the coffin I'm not even going to comment on your track record..... But for fun... You need to base your "verification" on midpoints. Your forecasted midpoint is 7". If the final P.I.S. shows spotter reports averaging near 7", we will say you verified. If it has a couple reports creeping up over 5", you did NOT verify just because it hit your low end. That does not reflect an event with a 7" midpoint NorthPgh (the original) had an excellent point about the width of your spreads. If the NWS was calling for 5-9" and most people barely crept up over 5", we would consider it a forecast that was overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 About 8pm I measured 2.25 inches. Probably at least another 2-3 inches before things wrap up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 -- Changed Discussion --SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EARLY HOURSOF FRIDAY, BUT HEAVIER SNOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES STILL LOOK OK GIVEN PROGRESSION AND REPORTS FROM THE WEST, SO ADVISORY WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO SNOW TOTALS. SNOW WILL LIGHTEN TO SHOWERS BY MORNING AS THE LOW TRANSITIONS TO THE COAST AND AS MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SWEEPS SEEDING ICE OUT OF THE AREA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND A RETURN OF WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES AND THE RIDGES FOR FRIDAY. SNOWFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FRIDAY.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 ok WOW!..right now coming down at the same pace as feb 4-6 last year...too bad it wont last about 15 hours!!...I shoveled my driveway-about 2.5"....got done, then had another 1/2" at the top.....hope this keeps up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Look at this at 384 GFS, I don't thnk I have ever seen bright yellow on the models, except in a tropical system. Can you imagine living in the Sierra Nevadas, what is that like 100" of snow in a 60 hr period. Can you say Donner Party. I think it happened last winter...i remember a big storm out west and it actually happened. the one that gave a ton of snow AZ (mtns) i believe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 ok WOW!..right now coming down at the same pace as feb 4-6 last year...too bad it wont last about 15 hours!!...I shoveled my driveway-about 2.5"....got done, then had another 1/2" at the top.....hope this keeps up! Looks like some locally heavier returns coming up through southern Allegheny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Looks like some locally heavier returns coming up through southern Allegheny. Yeah, I'm in the middle of it too. My next measurement could be close to 3 inches the way it's coming down right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 heavy snow in Monroeville, temp is 23°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'm not even going to comment on your track record..... But for fun... You need to base your "verification" on midpoints. Your forecasted midpoint is 7". If the final P.I.S. shows spotter reports averaging near 7", we will say you verified. If it has a couple reports creeping up over 5", you did NOT verify just because it hit your low end. That does not reflect an event with a 7" midpoint NorthPgh (the original) had an excellent point about the width of your spreads. If the NWS was calling for 5-9" and most people barely crept up over 5", we would consider it a forecast that was overdone. Well some forecasts are done with that spread because of topography and micro climates. I live in the highest hill in Washington County, I routinely get 1" more than someone 1 mile away, same could be said for someone in the Laurels and someone in Robinson. I have 3" of snow on my deck right now, I just measured it. I will most likely end up around 6", while the airport may get 4". Anyways if we are going to nitpick look at the spread in the latest NWS discussion "3-6 inch totals" that is what a 50% statistical variation or what we like to call a SWAG(Scientific Wild As* Guess) so I will cut the NWS and yes some posters here some slack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Have about 2.5, and coming down hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavensbee Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Well some forecasts are done with that spread because of topography and micro climates. I live in the highest hill in Washington County, I routinely get 1" more than someone 1 mile away, same could be said for someone in the Laurels and someone in Robinson. I have 3" of snow on my deck right now, I just measured it. I will most likely end up around 6", while the airport may get 4". Anyways if we are going to nitpick look at the spread in the latest NWS discussion "3-6 inch totals" that is what a 50% statistical variation or what we like to call a SWAG(Scientific Wild As* Guess) so I will cut the NWS and yes some posters here some slack. What part of McMurray do you live in? Because I swear I live on the highest hill in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Well some forecasts are done with that spread because of topography and micro climates. I live in the highest hill in Washington County, I routinely get 1" more than someone 1 mile away, same could be said for someone in the Laurels and someone in Robinson. I have 3" of snow on my deck right now, I just measured it. I will most likely end up around 6", while the airport may get 4". Anyways if we are going to nitpick look at the spread in the latest NWS discussion "3-6 inch totals" that is what a 50% statistical variation or what we like to call a SWAG(Scientific Wild As* Guess) so I will cut the NWS and yes some posters here some slack. Sure....but the micro climates and mesoscale features that cause variation need to reflect a prediction around a general midpoint. This is clearly a 4" to 6" storm. The average will probably be 5-ish. So some weenie says he is going to hype it up then "call for 5-9", with zero meteorological reasoning. Then he can claim victory as long as totals creep over 5".... or he fabricates amounts otherwise. If the 10% chance of a widespread 7 or 8" event happens, then he really claims victory. It's win/win, and eventually after 10 storms the outlier scenario happens. Anyway,It's a non issue to me at this point. If the mods want to ban him (again) they will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Some updated totals... **********************12 HOUR SNOWFALL********************** LOCATION 12 HOUR TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT OHIO ...COLUMBIANA COUNTY... WELLSVILLE 2.8 758 PM 1/20 ...MUSKINGUM COUNTY... NORWICH 2.0 724 PM 1/20 PENNSYLVANIA ...ALLEGHENY COUNTY... FOX CHAPEL 2.0 819 PM 1/20 ...BUTLER COUNTY... OGLE 2.0 832 PM 1/20 ...FAYETTE COUNTY... FARMINGTON 1.2 830 PM 1/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 NWS Mosaic Radar.. Don't like the way its looking, looks like heavy stuff has moved through, alot of lighter colors out in WV and Ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 What part of McMurray do you live in? Because I swear I live on the highest hill in this area. Country Brook is the highest point in Washington CO I believe...at the top of snowberry circle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Just came in from a short walk. I took a few measurements on snowboard type surfaces, and came up with 3" so far here in Coraopolis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Country Brook is the highest point in Washington CO I believe...at the top of snowberry circle... This is a great site far every county peak in PA, Here's washington county's peak : http://www.peakbagger.com/peak.aspx?pid=7269 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Well at least we got about 3.5 so far here in the south hills...with at least another inch-so 5" give or take a half inch...Im happy with on top of the snow pack that was dwindling.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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