cwc Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I have no problem with you putting your guesses for storms but here is what I think is wrong with them. You have too big of a spread. I have seen 12-18 back around Christmas. 6-12 recently. And this one of 4-8. I have not seen a model or discussion of 8 inches for Pittsburgh area. Why have it? That is why you see the NWS and local mets with 3-5 or 3-6 in some cases. This is why 4-8" is too big a spread: Winter Storm Watch: 6inches/12hours or 8inches/24hours possibleWinter Storm Warning: 6inches/12hours or 8inches/24hours imminen Winter Weather Advisory: 3inches/12hours / Blowing & Drifting snow 4" is advisory level, 8" is warning level. Two whole different ballgames. That's why NWs doesn't say 3-8"...such a prediction is meaningless and tells you nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I have no problem with you putting your guesses for storms but here is what I think is wrong with them. You have too big of a spread. I have seen 12-18 back around Christmas. 6-12 recently. And this one of 4-8. I have not seen a model or discussion of 8 inches for Pittsburgh area. Why have it? That is why you see the NWS and local mets with 3-5 or 3-6 in some cases. Average people out there will always take the higher number and run with it. Example: If you say 6-12, everyone goes around saying we are getting a foot. Then when you get 6 inches they think you overreacted. If you do this too many times than people won't believe you and you here the stories of weathermen being wrong all the time. You do not want to underestimate the situation but you also do not want to scare people as well. I remember back around the Christmas storm when Philly and New York had blizzard watches. You said you thought Pittsburgh was going to get 12-18 inches and should issue a blizzard watch. What did we get? Nothing I believe. Could you imagine if the NWS took your advice and issued a blizzard watch. The tv stations would be nuts and the supermarkets would go crazy. Then 2 days later we have nothing and the NWS is crucified for blowing it. I am not a met. I am interested in weather and always learning. Most times the mets know what they are doing and do a good job. Like I said before, I have no problem with people making predictions all over these forums but you need to tone it down. And don't forecast model to model. Those that have been on here as long as I have know that Western Pa. always has several 12-20 inch long range snowfalls on the models and we actually end up with 1 of these every 5 years or so. I do believe that we will still get a good 3-5 inches and things will get bad here quickly tonight. Ok the Christmas Storm was really hard to forecast, and i just sucked at that storm, It's a new year so whatever, but last weeks storm i went with 6-12 inches and we got 10 to 11 inches in most places, and i go with 4-8 inch snow this storm because somewhere they will get locally higher amounts, (plus look out west in Indiana to Missouri they got totals up to 10 inches from the same duration were expecting Who knows who cares, were getting snow enjoy it people, discussion over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Looks like we won't have to worry about virga with this one. I'm at the leading edge of the radar returns and the flakes are flying where I'm at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Looks like we won't have to worry about virga with this one. I'm at the leading edge of the radar returns and the flakes are flying where I'm at. Good to know. Radar looks good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 light snow now in monroeville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jen16226 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Flurries are starting here in New Ken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 snowing downtown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Ok the Christmas Storm was really hard to forecast, and i just sucked at that storm, It's a new year so whatever, but last weeks storm i went with 6-12 inches and we got 10 to 11 inches in most places, ? http://www.weather.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=pbz 4 day total, 1-11 through 1-14 is 8.3" I want to live in your backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I hate when people use weather from a thousand miles away to try to predict ours.. I agree. Sometimes it can be close but not in this case. St. Louis, MO is reporting 9.6" in past 24 hours when it snowed for about 18 hours. We will not see the heavier snow over us for as many hours as it did there so because they have almost 10" doesn't mean Pittsburgh will have 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I don't post here often but the bickering in this thread is making it unreadable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I don't post here often but the bickering in this thread is making it unreadable. Completely agree. Barely readable, i find myself spending more time over at the ohio thread now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Karl and northpitt need to quit antagonizing each other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 For those of you who are actually following the storm, the NAM really increased qpf here all the way back through Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I like how the radar returns are setting up for us right now. Some of the heavier returns in Ohio seem to be heading in this general direction. I better get home today before that stuff moves in. It'll probably get here after sunset and that's when the roads should start getting covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Wow, looks good. I read in the Central PA thread that the Low is stronger right now than the models depicted so that might be a good sign for us. I have had very light snow / flurries here in Greensburg for about 45 minutes now. For those of you who are actually following the storm, the NAM really increased qpf here all the way back through Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 For those of you who are actually following the storm, the NAM really increased qpf here all the way back through Ohio. Hasn't the NAM had us between .25 and .35 throughout?. Looks like the Highlands got a pretty big increase in QPF. They have KLBE at 7" and .39 QPF And look at Johnstown over 9" and near .50 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Next week storm right now looks like a nice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I like how the radar returns are setting up for us right now. Some of the heavier returns in Ohio seem to be heading in this general direction. I better get home today before that stuff moves in. It'll probably get here after sunset and that's when the roads should start getting covered. I am doing some unscientific extrapolation here based on the snowfall rates and the estimated time of the storm. Looks like about 1/2 inch per hour types snow(Averaging the light stuff we had an hour ago), with what looks like the heavy stuff early this evening. So we have 10-12 hours estimated of this left, based on the speed of the system and the as progged QPF content. I think we over perform the models a little, to guess I would say 5-6" at Pittsburgh Airport by early tomorrow morning. My point to my Tulsa story was that this system will not give us 9" of snow, but that maybe , just maybe the storm was stronger than was modeled and that is turning out to be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Ritual of the Trout was asking for some PBZ euro love so i'm here to distribute some. For the storm early next week, it is a miller B storm that eventually anchors a nice moderate looking snow shield over all of PA. Western PA gets about two periods of .1-.25 and some frames of <.1 on either side. Checked station output at PIttsburgh, Butler and Latrobe and they're all pretty much about half an inch total. The storm actually stays pretty much at or above 1000mb for the duration so that helps even the big cities stay mainly snow as the low stays a bit off the coast. And it helps you guys keep it all snow as well since the Ohio valley low is very weak. Def potential for a bigger snowfall out of this but its not too shabby as it stands currently. As for tonight's event here's my final map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I am doing some unscientific extrapolation here based on the snowfall rates and the estimated time of the storm. Looks like about 1/2 inch per hour types snow(Averaging the light stuff we had an hour ago), with what looks like the heavy stuff early this evening. So we have 10-12 hours estimated of this left, based on the speed of the system and the as progged QPF content. I think we over perform the models a little, to guess I would say 5-6" at Pittsburgh Airport by early tomorrow morning. My point to my Tulsa story was that this system will not give us 9" of snow, but that maybe , just maybe the storm was stronger than was modeled and that is turning out to be true. I'm beginning to think 5 or 6" as well, especially if some of this mesoscale banding pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'm thinking the same. Looks like we are going to get some hvy snow just in time for rush hour (which, I believe, is typical for Pittsburgh). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Ritual of the Trout was asking for some PBZ euro love so i'm here to distribute some. For the storm early next week, it is a miller B storm that eventually anchors a nice moderate looking snow shield over all of PA. Western PA gets about two periods of .1-.25 and some frames of <.1 on either side. Checked station output at PIttsburgh, Butler and Latrobe and they're all pretty much about half an inch total. The storm actually stays pretty much at or above 1000mb for the duration so that helps even the big cities stay mainly snow as the low stays a bit off the coast. And it helps you guys keep it all snow as well since the Ohio valley low is very weak. Def potential for a bigger snowfall out of this but its not too shabby as it stands currently. As for tonight's event here's my final map: Thanks for the insight, MAG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 HRRR is pretty bullish.. to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'm thinking the same. Looks like we are going to get some hvy snow just in time for rush hour (which, I believe, is typical for Pittsburgh). I noticed that Cincinnati is reporting heavy snow and 1/4 mile visibility. This is a good sign as they have had several hours of moderate snow. I was expecting this for us as well but if we can get some heavy snow for an hour or 2 we could pick up an additional couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman5416 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 For what it's worth, the Weather Channel has us at 5-8 inches... 2-3 this afternoon/evening, and 3-5 tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavensbee Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The snow falling outside my house is very light but there's a ton of those little flakes, so it's accumulating on the road. Definitely low ratios right now. Are the ratios supposed to increase overnight? By the way, first time posting here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The snow falling outside my house is very light but there's a ton of those little flakes, so it's accumulating on the road. Definitely low ratios right now. Are the ratios supposed to increase overnight? By the way, first time posting here Welcome! Where you at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavensbee Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Peters Township. Home of the girls high school soccer state champs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lwg8tr0514 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The snow falling outside my house is very light but there's a ton of those little flakes, so it's accumulating on the road. Definitely low ratios right now. Are the ratios supposed to increase overnight? By the way, first time posting here Hey fellow McMurray-ian and fellow snow weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I noticed that Cincinnati is reporting heavy snow and 1/4 mile visibility. This is a good sign as they have had several hours of moderate snow. I was expecting this for us as well but if we can get some heavy snow for an hour or 2 we could pick up an additional couple inches. Colombus reporting same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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