Karl_Racki Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 5PM to about 7am, i think the storm will be very quick and will drop tons of snow in a short amount of time, schools will close, there will be around a foot of snow, but the storm seems a little bit too quick, it will slow down slightly I am predicting right now 6-12 inch snowfall, out east in the Big Cites there going to get much worse than us We got another several runs to go You first say the storm will be quick, then say it will slow down.. This is like you will throw another 6 predictions out for this. 12" in a 12 hour snow event is way too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 5PM to about 7am, i think the storm will be very quick and will drop tons of snow in a short amount of time, schools will close, there will be around a foot of snow, but the storm seems a little bit too quick, it will slow down slightly I am predicting right now 6-12 inch snowfall, out east in the Big Cites there going to get much worse than us We got another several runs to go Wish casting is against the rules bud...mods need to take a look at this! I would guess right now 4-6, could change, but I think 4-6 is a decent first call. WSW by tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Wish casting is against the rules bud...mods need to take a look at this! I would guess right now 4-6, could change, but I think 4-6 is a decent first call. WSW by tomorrow morning. Thats a good call.. I will say by speed and ratio 2-5" for Pittsburgh area and of course 3-6" North of Pittsburgh and 4-8" in Highlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Thats a good call.. I will say by speed and ratio 2-5" for Pittsburgh area and of course 3-6" North of Pittsburgh and 4-8" in Highlands. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 5PM to about 7am, i think the storm will be very quick and will drop tons of snow in a short amount of time, schools will close, there will be around a foot of snow, but the storm seems a little bit too quick, it will slow down slightly I am predicting right now 6-12 inch snowfall, out east in the Big Cites there going to get much worse than us We got another several runs to go 1"/hr for 12 straight hours. Yeah, that's a realistic call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Not a big fan of this not closing off in the upper levels until way into New England. This is going to zip along pretty good for that reason. Would be surprised if Pit went with a WSW. Those ones creeping this way in Ohio are in areas that only need a 4" midpoint to get a warning. At this point I think we may have a similar 3" to 5" type forecast. But we'll see how things develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 They might put out a WSW initially like they did with the last two systems and then back off to a WWA closer to the event unless models go in a better direction for us. 3-5 around the city seems like a decent call right now which would be an advisory type event. This is subject to change of course being still 2 days away yet. It would be nice to get a watch that actually turns into a warning this time. We'll see. Fun to track though either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 areas SOUTH and east get more with this one...not north this time....at least not looking that way...not a significant difference unless you're in the laurels/farmington/etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Not a big fan of this not closing off in the upper levels until way into New England. This is going to zip along pretty good for that reason. Would be surprised if Pit went with a WSW. Those ones creeping this way in Ohio are in areas that only need a 4" midpoint to get a warning. At this point I think we may have a similar 3" to 5" type forecast. But we'll see how things develop. Yes, right now I agree 3-5 sounds pretty good for a first guess given current models. If this thing can get its act together sooner it would definitely help our chances. Last nights 00z NAM was by far the best solution for our area so hopefully the final solution can look more like that. Biggest thing going for this right now for delays for schools is the timing of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PittWeatherWatch Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 TODAY`S NAM/GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN ADVANCING AN OPEN MID LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE EXPECTED WITH THE ADVANCE AND PASSAGE OF THAT FEATURE, BUT PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE OPEN WAVE AND ENCROACHING DRY SLOT LOOKS TO LIMIT SNOW TOTALS TO MANAGEABLE LEVELS AT THIS TIME. IN THE COLD FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS, MIXING LEVEL PROGNOSIS IS ALSO LIMITED IN TODAYS SOLUTIONS, SO LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE LIMITED. OVERALL, ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BE EXPECTED AND CATEGORICAL, TO LIKELY PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, BUT WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA ACCUMULATION REMAINS QUESTIONABLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND FUTURE SHIFTS WILL CLOSELY MONITOR FOR DEEPENING TRENDS IN THE SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 TODAY`S NAM/GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN ADVANCING AN OPEN MID LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE EXPECTED WITH THE ADVANCE AND PASSAGE OF THAT FEATURE, BUT PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE OPEN WAVE AND ENCROACHING DRY SLOT LOOKS TO LIMIT SNOW TOTALS TO MANAGEABLE LEVELS AT THIS TIME. IN THE COLD FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS, MIXING LEVEL PROGNOSIS IS ALSO LIMITED IN TODAYS SOLUTIONS, SO LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE LIMITED. OVERALL, ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BE EXPECTED AND CATEGORICAL, TO LIKELY PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, BUT WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA ACCUMULATION REMAINS QUESTIONABLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND FUTURE SHIFTS WILL CLOSELY MONITOR FOR DEEPENING TRENDS IN THE SYSTEM. :thumbsdown::thumbsdown::thumbsdown::thumbsdown: I read somewhere else someone mentioned a dryslot in this area.. I welcome snow, but as for a accumulating event, I am losing excitement fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 You are losing an excitement for an accumulating event??? At worst this is 2-4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Nam is putrid compared to the last couple runs...still 2-4 probably but a big meh. Not as bad as I thought...I'll stick with 4-6. Also, with the south shift I see no dryslot issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 You are losing an excitement for an accumulating event??? At worst this is 2-4? We went from a huge QPF event from a few days ago and possibly a 6-10" snowfall to a marginal WWA event.. Sorry, like I said I welcome all snow, but I am losing excitement fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 3-5, 4-6 still seems reasonable...replentish the snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 3-5, 4-6 still seems reasonable...replentish the snowpack. 4-6 will be nice, but every model gets worst for us.. This system is very frustrating, I honestly don't see it getting any better then 4-6 at this point, but as you mentioned the dry slot looks out of play now, but if we do get dry slotted, those 4-6 totals could suffer to a more 2-4" KDKA was calling for 2-4.. Henry is also on the 2-4 train NWS states we will have manageable snow levels. Seems like the pros are going away from a bigger event for a WWA event.And even that WWA event could be marginal. Lets hope nice model runs brings it south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 4-6 will be nice, but every model gets worst for us.. This system is very frustrating, I honestly don't see it getting any better then 4-6 at this point, but as you mentioned the dry slot looks out of play now, but if we do get dry slotted, those 4-6 totals could suffer to a more 2-4" KDKA was calling for 2-4.. Henry is also on the 2-4 train NWS states we will have manageable snow levels. Seems like the pros are going away from a bigger event for a WWA event.And even that WWA event could be marginal. Lets hope nice model runs brings it south. Well just looking at this, i don't see a dry slot(maybe in West Virgina), i see a nice snow event coming out of this quick snowstorm, .40 to .60 precip for all of us, with most of the precip falling during Thursday Evening into Friday morning, snow ratios of 20:1 with temps between 15 and 20 degrees for most of the event, that would pump out 6-10 inch snowfall or so for us. Plus get a look a this sucker, this what the a future cast is showing, i do see this possibly happening Well areas north will get less, and people in the metro will likely get the most, people quit punching the panic button after one run, and NWS PITT has there time being right, but mostly off plus this (http://www.hpc.ncep....ons/pmdhmd.html) there was somewhat of an error with the 00z NAM , and the model doesn't seem right with some of the pro mets also look what the snow ratios to 5-10 inch snow with 20:1 and half an inch of precip, and also and update Karl Racki, STFU, really, you can't get facts right, did you ever meet all the Mets at NWS, no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Well just looking at this, i don't see a dry slot(maybe in West Virgina), i see a nice snow event coming out of this quick snowstorm, .40 to .60 precip for all of us, with most of the precip falling during Thursday Evening into Friday morning, snow ratios of 20:1 with temps between 15 and 20 degrees for most of the event, that would pump out 6-10 inch snowfall or so for us. Plus get a look a this sucker, this what the a future cast is showing, i do see this possibly happening Well areas north will get less, and people in the metro will likely get the most, people quit punching the panic button after one run, and NWS PITT has there time being right, but mostly off plus this (http://www.hpc.ncep....ons/pmdhmd.html) there was somewhat of an error with the 00z NAM , and the model doesn't seem right with some of the pro mets A few things... 1) There is nothing on the QPF That shows 6-10" Where you continue to get your info from is beyond me. 2) The future Radar is garbage. It just shows when the snow starts. Nobody is debating the start time. It will start after sunset. 3) NWS has been right on the last two winters, you on the other hand.. 4) The Metro area will get the most? Only way that is possible is if you measure it for them. Eastern areas will make out much better. Areas like Ligonier, Donegal, Latrobe, Farmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Well just looking at this, i don't see a dry slot(maybe in West Virgina), i see a nice snow event coming out of this quick snowstorm, .40 to .60 precip for all of us, with most of the precip falling during Thursday Evening into Friday morning, snow ratios of 20:1 with temps between 15 and 20 degrees for most of the event, that would pump out 6-10 inch snowfall or so for us. Plus get a look a this sucker, this what the a future cast is showing, i do see this possibly happening Well areas north will get less, and people in the metro will likely get the most, people quit punching the panic button after one run, and NWS PITT has there time being right, but mostly off plus this (http://www.hpc.ncep....ons/pmdhmd.html) there was somewhat of an error with the 00z NAM , and the model doesn't seem right with some of the pro mets also look what the snow ratios to 5-10 inch snow with 20:1 and half an inch of precip, and also and update Karl Racki, STFU, really, you can't get facts right, did you ever meet all the Mets at NWS, no Look at the NAM gives us.. 5" and QPF of .33 http://www.meteor.ia...am/nam_kpit.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 3-5 still looking like a reasonable call after seeing 00z NAM/GFS. Time for bed, then a review of the 6z suite tomorrow morning before the 12z comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Instead of arguing about what pretty colors and numbers a Mesoscale model like the NAM is showing us in the 48 to 60 hour range.... ...I think it's a little smarter to look at what is actually driving the weather. On the plus side, it looks like a fairly "direct hit", or maybe just to south. There has also been model consistency. More importantly...... On the negative side, it's a fairly progressive, weaker open wave with no closed H5 low. No matter what we think we know about "ratio's" and such, we can conclude that that scenario has never, ever (well, at least in the last 20 years) produced an 8 to 10" type synoptic snowfall in Pittsburgh. So unless it's being modeled incorrectly, that's not happening. This is shaping up as a pretty quick, but decent thump with .5" per hour type rates through a nice chunk of the night on Thursday --> but I think 4" or 5" is the MAX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 i just seen this online. is this from last night? dangerous. http://www.ebaumsworld.com/video/watch/81275248/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITblizz Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Ugh, woke up. Decided to check the NAM, looks like it trended stronger and better phased, about 5 inches for us. This could still be very decent for us, and possible our best synoptic snow of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Why does kpit keep mentioning dryslot??? I'm really not seeing that being an issue??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 What a pleasant ride to work this morning. No ice on the car or roads at all, Temps still above freezing.. Look like all locals are calling 2-4" Thursday night through Friday morning. I will take it, but a few days ago looks like we were going to get bombed pretty good. Just another chapter in the story of tracking storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PittWeatherWatch Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT WAVE RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY, BUT THE ADVANCE OF THAT TROUGH WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE EXPECTED WITH THE ADVANCE AND PASSAGE OF THE STORM THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE OPEN WAVE AND ENCROACHING DRY SLOT LOOKS TO LIMIT SNOW TOTALS TO ADVISORY LEVELS AT THIS TIME. SOME LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE SYSTEM FRIDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwc Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Well just looking at this, i don't see a dry slot(maybe in West Virgina), i see a nice snow event coming out of this quick snowstorm, .40 to .60 precip for all of us, with most of the precip falling during Thursday Evening into Friday morning, snow ratios of 20:1 with temps between 15 and 20 degrees for most of the event, that would pump out 6-10 inch snowfall or so for us. Plus get a look a this sucker, this what the a future cast is showing, i do see this possibly happening Well areas north will get less, and people in the metro will likely get the most, people quit punching the panic button after one run, and NWS PITT has there time being right, but mostly off plus this (http://www.hpc.ncep....ons/pmdhmd.html) there was somewhat of an error with the 00z NAM , and the model doesn't seem right with some of the pro mets also look what the snow ratios to 5-10 inch snow with 20:1 and half an inch of precip, and also and update Karl Racki, STFU, really, you can't get facts right, did you ever meet all the Mets at NWS, no For a kid who compares EVERY storm to March 1993 and/or Feb 2010, and "relies" on questionable models, you really have no right to slam NWS. If you have an issue with NWS Pittsburgh, then you must also have an issue with NWS Cleveland, State College and Charleston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
northpittweather Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 For a kid who compares EVERY storm to March 1993 and/or Feb 2010, and "relies" on questionable models, you really have no right to slam NWS. If you have an issue with NWS Pittsburgh, then you must also have an issue with NWS Cleveland, State College and Charleston. Winter Storm Watch is needed soon, and also like to point out is i don't compare every storm to those big events, maybe you could get your facts straight!!!!!!!!!!!! 5-10 inch snowfall is likely, and there is no dry slot issue for us, plain and simple THEN ON THURS... THE HVY SNOWFALL POTENTIAL SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE OH VLY INTO THE NRN MID-ATL REGION. WHILE THE ACTIVE SRN STREAM PRODUCES CONVECTION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO/GULF COAST... THE IMPRESSIVE ARCTIC DYNAMICS SWEEP THROUGH THE GRT LAKES AND MORE OVERRUNNING/POST-FRONTAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE OH RIVER INTO PA. from the HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karl_Racki Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Winter Storm Watch is needed soon, and also like to point out is i don't compare every storm to those big events, maybe you could get your facts straight!!!!!!!!!!!! 5-10 inch snowfall is likely, and there is no dry slot issue for us, plain and simple .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...SHORT WAVE RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY, BUT THE ADVANCE OF THAT TROUGH WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE EXPECTED WITH THE ADVANCE AND PASSAGE OF THE STORM THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE OPEN WAVE AND ENCROACHING DRY SLOT LOOKS TO LIMIT SNOW TOTALS TO ADVISORY LEVELS AT THIS TIME. SOME LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE SYSTEM FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE FURTHER DECREASE WITH HIGHS FORECAST ONLY AROUND 20 ON FRIDAY. You seriously need to call the NWS and be heard and ask why a Watch hasn't been issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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