Sundog Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Even with the massive -NAO, theres still a SE ridge on the euro, guess it goes to show that the NAO is the only thing that controls the pattern over the East As we move into December the overall gradient should drop in latitude making the map you posted inapplicable for when winter is really here. Like Alex said the NAO doesn't exert the same type of force in November as it does later on. This is the opposite of 93-94 only it's producing similar results. This pattern a month from now would be bleeding Arctic air underneath the high heights. Evidence of this is the big high pressures that have been setting up over SE Canada over the last couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Even with the massive -NAO, theres still a SE ridge on the euro, guess it goes to show that the NAO is the only thing that controls the pattern over the East It because the -NAO is east based and the PV is still way up over Northern Canada. That lets the SE ridge build up again, after a cold shot at end of next week. For us to keep cold air longer we need the Greenland ridge to shift farther west and the PV farther SE. The models and ensembles shows signs of that happening by 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest PDIIREDUX Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 looks like the NAO does get west based by turkey day with some really cold 850s and chance of snow. Looks like the NAO builds down over greenland instead of across it which is a better way to get a west based block. Could be a wave of LP coming up the front that moves through the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 As we move into December the overall gradient should drop in latitude making the map you posted inapplicable for when winter is really here. Like Alex said the NAO doesn't exert the same type of force in November as it does later on. This is the opposite of 93-94 only it's producing similar results. This pattern a month from now would be bleeding Arctic air underneath the high heights. Evidence of this is the big high pressures that have been setting up over SE Canada over the last couple weeks. Do you remember Nov 93? I remember it started out really cold (sort of like how this one started) and then it got warm mid month-- the day of the marathon on the 14th it was in the 70s! and the 15th it hit 80 for the latest its ever done that. Things started cooling rapidly around Thanksgiving-- as you would expect. I sort of felt like the torch summer followed by the kind of fall we had telegraphed a cold snowy winter to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 I see a low of 37 at JFK They must've updated. I thought I saw 39 at JFK and 37 at EWR. Did you notice any frost on the car tops this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 And look its in the 60s (again) lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Got down to 30F in New Brunswick last night with what looks to have been frozen dew! Reached our Td of 35F and dropped down to 30F. A little disappointed I missed it... we don't get frozen dew too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Got down to 30F in New Brunswick last night with what looks to have been frozen dew! Reached our Td of 35F and dropped down to 30F. A little disappointed I missed it... we don't get frozen dew too often. Yeah and now we're up to 61, a 31 degree temperature rise in 7 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Muttontown got down to 30.7 You can always count on my weatherstation at my parent's house to get pretty cold, never fails out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 0z GFs shows a very nice pattern as we head into December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 Check out this gradient pattern developing on the 18z GFS long range. Pretty sweet. That is some pretty serious cold air north of the border. Thank goodness I found you and this board. I don't know what I would have done without being able to read your threads during winter. Big sigh of relief. Indeed that is an incredible gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 15, 2010 Author Share Posted November 15, 2010 Thank goodness I found you and this board. I don't know what I would have done without being able to read your threads during winter. Big sigh of relief. Indeed that is an incredible gradient. I'm glad you found your way over as well, buddy! Winter is almost here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 I'm glad you found your way over as well, buddy! Winter is almost here. I see you brought the snowbirds as well. May they pay us dividends even in an unfavorable La Nina year. Fly snowbirds, fly, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 15, 2010 Share Posted November 15, 2010 The winds should really pick up Wednesday after the frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 16, 2010 Author Share Posted November 16, 2010 Guidance has definitely trended towards less precipitation in relation to the isentropic lifting this morning/afternoon and more precipitation directly along the frontal boundary overnight tonight. The SPC WRF agrees with this (from last night 00z)..with the main precipitation mode being convective overnight into Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Guidance has definitely trended towards less precipitation in relation to the isentropic lifting this morning/afternoon and more precipitation directly along the frontal boundary overnight tonight. The SPC WRF agrees with this (from last night 00z)..with the main precipitation mode being convective overnight into Wednesday morning. Isn't that what usually happens anyway? Keep in mind, models are "smoothed out". They'll do well with precipitation fields, timing of heavy bands, etc, in stratiform events. Not so much in convective events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 16, 2010 Author Share Posted November 16, 2010 TONIGHT...A BAND OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ALONG THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. WHILE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK /I.E. MLCAPE VALUES LESS THAN 500-700 J PER KG/...THE INTENSE WIND FIELD AND DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A CORRIDOR OF WIND DAMAGE AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES. ..MEAD/GARNER.. 11/16/2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 TONIGHT...A BAND OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ALONG THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. WHILE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK /I.E. MLCAPE VALUES LESS THAN 500-700 J PER KG/...THE INTENSE WIND FIELD AND DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A CORRIDOR OF WIND DAMAGE AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES. ..MEAD/GARNER.. 11/16/2010 Well, that was only shifted about 150 miles North from earlier! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 16, 2010 Author Share Posted November 16, 2010 Well, that was only shifted about 150 miles North from earlier! That's thanks to the north/west and broadening trend of the warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 That's thanks to the north/west and broadening trend of the warm sector. It was fairly easy to see coming, the models had been giving hints of this happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Any ideas about the timing of this? I know it is tough to forecast convection at this time of year ( i remember a thread last year that detailed the autumn forecasting difficulties, from a met). It was fairly easy to see coming, the models had been giving hints of this happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Any ideas about the timing of this? I know it is tough to forecast convection at this time of year ( i remember a thread last year that detailed the autumn forecasting difficulties, from a met). In the middle of the night, when we're all asleep, except A-L-E-X. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest PDIIREDUX Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 if memory serves me correctly, getting good convection in November has preceeded a few November snow falls Nov 95 comes to mind, and I believe Nov 89? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 if memory serves me correctly, getting good convection in November has preceeded a few November snow falls Nov 95 comes to mind, and I believe Nov 89? Yes and no. Convection in November can mean stronger cold fronts, which would be good, or it can also mean Lakes Cutters, which would be bad. There isn't much of a correlation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 SREF looks like 3-9z timing on the elevated convection tonight and lingering a bit longer points east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 16, 2010 Author Share Posted November 16, 2010 SREF looks like 3-9z timing on the elevated convection tonight and lingering a bit longer points east. 12z NAM likes this timing as well...interesting that last nights 00z SPC WRF was a bit slower and had less precipitation. Always something to keep an eye out for in these convective setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest PDIIREDUX Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Yes and no. Convection in November can mean stronger cold fronts, which would be good, or it can also mean Lakes Cutters, which would be bad. There isn't much of a correlation. it was more of a good omen thing, not really a correlation thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 12z NAM likes this timing as well...interesting that last nights 00z SPC WRF was a bit slower and had less precipitation. Always something to keep an eye out for in these convective setups. It's always interesting to see if we can get some of the stronger winds aloft to be brought down during the heavier downpours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Any ideas about the timing of this? I know it is tough to forecast convection at this time of year ( i remember a thread last year that detailed the autumn forecasting difficulties, from a met). Glad to see you made your way over here neighbor! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 It looks like we should see wind advisory criteria met tomorrow as temps rise into the 60's along with the LLJ cranking up behind the cold front during the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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