earthlight Posted November 11, 2010 Share Posted November 11, 2010 High pressure continues to build into the region this Thursday afternoon, as the low pressure responsible for the rather unsettled weather early this week continues to lose it's grip on the region. This area of low pressure, in fact, has drifted southward a bit over the last day or so instead of moving northeast, the direction storms typically go after impacting our area. It was interesting to watch some of the guidance nearly make te closed low sub-tropical. Hasn't happened. Regardless, higher pressures are building in, and will make their mark on the area's weather throughout the weekend. The modifying airmass will allow temperatures to build into the mid and upper 50's for highs, and eventually into the lower 60's for highs by the weekend (see the 12z NAM forecasting 60's for Saturday afternoon). It is currently shaping up to be a terrific weekend for outdoor activities and plans. With the benign weather, why not take a shot at stargazing? The great visibility, and the proximity of the upcoming Leonids meteor shower(Nov 17) could line up to create a memorable evening. Beyond this, we track a potential cold snap. Forecast guidance and global ensembles have been extremely inconsistent, but fear not. The cold will come! The pattern remains favorable with the NAO in a favorable negative state and forecast to stay that way for the foreseeable future. The blocking has also been impressively strong even throughout the Spring and Summer at times, and with the average heights lowering it's no surprise to see it return with a vengence given the current pattern that we are in. The GGEM global ensembles, as well as occasionally the GFS and ECMWF global ensembles have been forecasting the favorable development of arctic air plunging southward from the poles towards the Central United States. The lack of a strong/positive PNA creates much more of a zonal flow over the Central and Eastern US. Here is where any delay of cold air could come into play. The gradient pattern that sets up, when juxtaposed with the -NAO and blocking downstream, could lead to a favorable gradient storm pattern for our area in early December. It will certainly be interesting watching this unfold over the next couple of weeks.See: GFS/ECMWF Ensemble heights. I know how everybody feels--winter is almost here, and so is the snow. With the early start projected this year, you can almost smell it in the air. It won't be long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 Interesting OBS coming in this evening. KHWV is calm with a T of 33F and a Td of 27. KISP is also calm with a T of 39F and a Td of 23F. However, the usual cold spot in a clear, dry airmass is KFOK and they are only at a T 46F and a Td of 24 but with a 8 knot wind. Looks like the pressure gradient is still in tact over eastern LI but cental LI has decoupled for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 12, 2010 Author Share Posted November 12, 2010 Interesting OBS coming in this evening. KHWV is calm with a T of 33F and a Td of 27. KISP is also calm with a T of 39F and a Td of 23F. However, the usual cold spot in a clear, dry airmass is KFOK and they are only at a T 46F and a Td of 24 but with a 8 knot wind. Looks like the pressure gradient is still in tact over eastern LI but cental LI has decoupled for now. It's been a while since I've seen the N-S gradient over the Island. Tonight should be the last night where we really drop like a rock overnight into the lower 30's inland and 30's in the city. This afternoon's NAM data had overnight lows Friday Night/Sat Morning no lower than 40-42 F..and warmer each night going forward with the mid level ridge building and rising H85 temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 12, 2010 Author Share Posted November 12, 2010 The usual cold spots will probably get into the 30's overnight Friday Night anyway..given the near calm north winds and clear skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 It's been a while since I've seen the N-S gradient over the Island. Tonight should be the last night where we really drop like a rock overnight into the lower 30's inland and 30's in the city. This afternoon's NAM data had overnight lows Friday Night/Sat Morning no lower than 40-42 F..and warmer each night going forward with the mid level ridge building and rising H85 temps. I think we are all saved from getting too much above normal for highs though. I feel with cloud cover increasing late weekend into next week as SW flow commences and ridge axis shifts east, we should be held down somewhat closer to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 12, 2010 Author Share Posted November 12, 2010 I think we are all saved from getting too much above normal for highs though. I feel with cloud cover increasing late weekend into next week as SW flow commences and ridge axis shifts east, we should be held down somewhat closer to normal. I agree with this..the guidance has been pretty tempered down with the heights especially since the closed upper level low decided to meander in the Western Atlantic for four days. The big shortwave over the Rockies and the cyclogenesis over the Plains will eventually drive a cold front this way--and that should end the warming trend. I think we probably get into the lower 60's on Saturday, and Sunday may actually be a bit cooler with some cloud cover. After that, the front is probably nearing our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 It's been a while since I've seen the N-S gradient over the Island. Tonight should be the last night where we really drop like a rock overnight into the lower 30's inland and 30's in the city. This afternoon's NAM data had overnight lows Friday Night/Sat Morning no lower than 40-42 F..and warmer each night going forward with the mid level ridge building and rising H85 temps. Don't be surprised if temperatures drop more than progged tonight. The humidity is 12% here now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 Don't be surprised if temperatures drop more than progged tonight. The humidity is 12% here now! Upto 63 here. I think we may push mid upper 60s tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Noreaster Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 Upto 63 here. I think we may push mid upper 60s tomorrow. golf links here I come baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Noreaster Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 LOL at the GFS but if the 570 block comes to fruition, would not be surprised to see a major storm sometime soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 LOL at the GFS but if the 570 block comes to fruition, would not be surprised to see a major storm sometime soon Looks like a sweet pattern coming....we have the -EPO to originate a cold dump into Canada, and then a severely -NAO starts to build in and give us a better chance for an East Coast storm rather than cutters and clippers. It could be one of the coldest Thanksgivings in recent memory as several runs of the GFS have shown -10C 850s for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Noreaster Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 Looks like a sweet pattern coming....we have the -EPO to originate a cold dump into Canada, and then a severely -NAO starts to build in and give us a better chance for an East Coast storm rather than cutters and clippers. It could be one of the coldest Thanksgivings in recent memory as several runs of the GFS have shown -10C 850s for the day. -EPO, -NAO and good MJO phase has all the makings of a nice storm sooner rathern than later. Sure, you want the +PNA, but in the NYC immediate area we can get a nice event without it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 -EPO, -NAO and good MJO phase has all the makings of a nice storm sooner rathern than later. Sure, you want the +PNA, but in the NYC immediate area we can get a nice event without it. No offence but who are you? Is this Noreaster09? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Noreaster Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 No offence but who are you? Is this Noreaster09? Nope, I lurked on the other board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 LOL at the GFS but if the 570 block comes to fruition, would not be surprised to see a major storm sometime soon Looks like the first fantasy snow storm of the year, possible if we get the Pacific to cooperate, it looks like the NAO will be on our side for the early part of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 LGA current temp: 60 My current temp: 53.1 Distance between us: 3 miles WTF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 Welcome guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 Really beautiful day here today and the waves were amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 Heavy heavy radiational cooling tonight. Most places are plummeting right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 12, 2010 Author Share Posted November 12, 2010 Heavy heavy radiational cooling tonight. Most places are plummeting right now. NAM seems a bit high even from this afternoons low temp data..probably going to get a bit lower than guidance. Last night it had most areas staying above 40 F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted November 12, 2010 Share Posted November 12, 2010 NAM seems a bit high even from this afternoons low temp data..probably going to get a bit lower than guidance. Last night it had most areas staying above 40 F. Yeah. Most places that are decent radiating spots should be able to find the mid-lower 30's. GFS MOS has 35 for CDW, 40 for TEB, and 27 for FWN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Anyone let amy know about the change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Yeah. Most places that are decent radiating spots should be able to find the mid-lower 30's. GFS MOS has 35 for CDW, 40 for TEB, and 27 for FWN. VERY VERY easy to go lower than MOS guidance on a clear night, on a day when humidites were under 10%, and winds are calm now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 0z GFS is cold once again in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 0z GFS is cold once again in the long range. It's going to flip flop at-least 40 more times, wouldn't be surprised to see a full out raging panic rain flooding event next model series Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 0z GFS ensemble mean. Very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 0z GFS ensemble mean. Very interesting. Anthony posted an ensemble mean map! Winter is coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 omaha got under the ccb band tonight and looks as if the northern part of iowa will get accumlating snow tonight. St paul looks to be a lock for 4-8 tomorrow, web cam posted in mid-west forum. Cam just east of omaha http://www.carterlake.org/wx12.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 13, 2010 Author Share Posted November 13, 2010 omaha got under the ccb band tonight and looks as if the northern part of iowa will get accumlating snow tonight. St paul looks to be a lock for 4-8 tomorrow, web cam posted in mid-west forum. Cam just east of omaha http://www.carterlake.org/wx12.php :lmao: Funny dude just ran right in front of the camera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 :lmao: Funny dude just ran right in front of the camera lol.....yeah i saw that in the past 24hr clip.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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