vinylfreak89 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 the reason things are starting earlier is because the vorticity is further North and East than modeled.. remember most models indicated the first flakes would be in around 4-6 PM and done by midnight. If we can keep that vorticity packed nicely, and move it along just a little faster, then we can start to see a real explosion as moisture advects in from the south and the low moves north. there is some very decent frontogenesis going on so as the shortwave from the west moves in before that instability moves north we all may get a very nice surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 we are getting some nice fat ones Quoted for later use. Nice snowsquall downtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mascho Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Snowing again downtown in McPherson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Nice snowsquall downtown. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 and.. it's over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Feels like I'm watching for a pop up thunderstorm in august. Nothing organized- at least yet. Had 10 flakes in wheaton an hour or so ago. Nothing now. Stuff coming from the west seems somewhat interesting, but I have no clue what it foreshadows. I'm close to giving up in terms of expecting anything, but certainly have given up trying to understand the synoptics at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Vinyl -- I'm not an expert but the vorticity on the current 500 mb looks to be in the center of Illinois just like that RUC map you posted. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17# Or is that what you are saying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 These 3 min fat flake events could add up to 1". We just need about 10000 of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Drizzle in downtown dc near White House Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 the sky is beginning to darken here... loaded up satellite to see when things begin to convect. flurries/light snow stopped a while ago but it looks like a new batch is moving its way in. based on where the spotty activity set up this morning and based on the traectory of the precip moving in from the west, the area where those 2 converge should be the non screw area. thats basically where my hashed area is... south and west of there... sorry but these kind of energy transfers always screw someone.... my final forecast... within 25 miles inside of that hashed area, 1-4, 25-75 miles, 3-9, 75+ miles, 7+, all this depending on where the convective banding sets up later... which is impossible to tell... note that the CCB has NOT formed yet, but this is the area I believe it will form when all is said and done... if the MW system moves in a little faster or the Cape Hatteras system a little slower, then the hatched area can get pulled slightly south and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Light snow here. The flakes are the largest that I have sceen this winter. Starting to stick on grass and porch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Whoa big flakes at a good clip suddenly here in Calverton, MD at the ICF building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 just drove from fairfax to richmond....juiced all the way on 95....drove through a road salt flizzard near PW county, then snow, sleet, frz rain, and the rain south of fred.....good luck up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Vinyl -- I'm not an expert but the vorticity on the current 500 mb looks to be in the center of Illinois just like that RUC map you posted. http://www.spc.noaa....r.php?sector=17# Or is that what you are saying? central and southern yes, but the key is to look at where it was modeled to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 the sky is beginning to darken here... loaded up satellite to see when things begin to convect. flurries/light snow stopped a while ago but it looks like a new batch is moving its way in. based on where the spotty activity set up this morning and based on the traectory of the precip moving in from the west, the area where those 2 converge should be the non screw area. thats basically where my hashed area is... south and west of there... sorry but these kind of energy transfers always screw someone.... my final forecast... within 25 miles inside of that hashed area, 1-4, 25-75 miles, 3-9, 75+ miles, 7+, all this depending on where the convective banding sets up later... which is impossible to tell... note that the CCB has NOT formed yet, but this is the area I believe it will form when all is said and done... if the MW system moves in a little faster or the Cape Hatteras system a little slower, then the hatched area can get pulled slightly south and west. The stuff in the west is actually moving NE and not due east. Looks like where it would converge with the southern system would be further north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Whoa big flakes at a good clip suddenly here in Calverton, MD at the ICF building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Where did you dig up that weenie radar image? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Everything seems a tad faster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The stuff in the west is actually moving NE and not due east. Looks like where it would converge with the southern system would be further north and east. very valid point... also looks like the stuff in NC is taking off NE in a hurry.... things need to get their act together quick... like within the next few hours... as the convergence begins, it will start to slow down the hatteras system ever so slightly, question is will it be enough... we are truly on the fringe in this scenario. If i need to adjust that hashed area in a few hours based on what I'm seeing I will. one very disconcertint hing is the evidence of brighter clouds in NoVA on satellite... the 700 low needs to dip south east quick or we are all going to get screwed with dry air (and it will become a dec. 26 redux)... a lot of little things going right with this system... but a lot also going very wrong. its going to be a counter balance... which wins out in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 we're probably toast.. it was fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Where did you dig up that weenie radar image? thats my GR2AE dude except i dont turn off low echos... here's the color scale. its a good scaale for clear air mode and regular mode... probably not the best winter scale but it works awesome during severe season to pick up outflow boundaries etc if u want it just shoot me a PM and i'll give u the tpl file Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Big flakes now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 thats my GR2AE dude except i dont turn off low echos... here's the color scale. its a good scaale for clear air mode and regular mode... probably not the best winter scale but it works awesome during severe season to pick up outflow boundaries etc if u want it just shoot me a PM and i'll give u the tpl file No thanks - I'll just use a satellite image.. same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowden Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 At least rush hour will be saved, wasn't looking forward to a 2 1/2 hour commute back to NoVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 No thanks - I'll just use a satellite image.. same thing OT but if you're looking for outflow boundaries on satellite with big spreading supercells, you're going to be looking a long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Anyone who's posting now about how this over, our 1 inch is toast, etc, should somehow be banned later from enjoying our 1-3 inches. Am I missing something? The coastal low is still tucked underneath the Eastern tip of NC. We weren't supposed to be getting snow yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Drizzle concluded - 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yeah this is over, nobody sees nothing! Explain that to those who have seen some snow today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 OT but if you're looking for outflow boundaries on satellite with big spreading supercells, you're going to be looking a long time I'm more an inflow boundary guy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Explain that to those who have seen some snow today yeah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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