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January 11-12 Storm Obs/Discussion


clskinsfan

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I know people have mixed feelings about DT, and he busted hard on this event for Richmond and caught flack for it from his followers.. But I found this after I sent it to someone on Dec. 26, the day after xmas.. Pretty good that mentioned Jan. 11 and today is Jan. 11. I just showed this to someone who doesn't pay close attention to weather, and they were stunned that science and modeling has advanced far enough that DT could have written this three weeks ago.

"Wxrisk.com LOOKING AHEAD-- Major warm up coming DEC 30-31-JAN 1-2. Temps could Reach near 65 degrees DEC 31 &JAN 1!! But Much talked above VERY mild JAN is in Trouble. Strong Model agreement that Cold pattern Returns Jan 3. Two *POSSIBLE*

winter weather events JAN 7 & JAN 11. There are good "signals" that one o...r both of these events MIGHT be snowy. MORE on this on the web site MONDAY MORNING

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i think it probably made sense for everyone to back off a little ... i was definitely nervous myself with the models backing down and then 'apparent' trends for a bit. though there really was a good deal of continuity that we'd get something at least. it looks like it was pretty close.. it looks like many places dc and north will verify 1-3+. i think there were some misreads earlier for sure.. things did sort of pan out as planned. people did call it -- the panic -- yesterday pretty well. lowered amounts will probably still end up verifying for most places... i really have not looked at much today as far as outlets and honestly don't even know cwg's last call -- i'll go look now.

Ian- We downgraded in PM Update (since all the model QPFs dropped) to a dusting SW to 2" NE - with maybe 2-3" around Baltimore -- which was roughly equivalent to our original range at the low end. So I think we did ok. I gotta admit I was sweating it for a while.

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once that dryslot establishes it starts flying according to the models....Philly better get a good dumping now or a serious freaking coma head at some point.

That dryslot is roaring thru my 'hood. Picked up about a quarter inch to maybe a half inch of snow - Just enough to make the grass look sorta white.

It's better than nothing. It was nice watching it fall. Good luck DC, Balto and Philly with the pivot

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still snowing hard here

looks like my trace-2" will bust

about fookin' time we catch a break

as for Boston, yeah, they'll get close to what we got on 2/6/10, but they didn't see a flake when we had our bliz and we'll get several inches when they get theirs :P

BOX going with 12-16"...more like half (and depending on exactly what you got 2/6, slightly under half) of what we got. tongue.gif

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I know people have mixed feelings about DT, and he busted hard on this event for Richmond and caught flack for it from his followers.. But I found this after I sent it to someone on Dec. 26, the day after xmas.. Pretty good that mentioned Jan. 11 and today is Jan. 11. I just showed this to someone who doesn't pay close attention to weather, and they were stunned that science and modeling has advanced far enough that DT could have written this three weeks ago.

"Wxrisk.com LOOKING AHEAD-- Major warm up coming DEC 30-31-JAN 1-2. Temps could Reach near 65 degrees DEC 31 &JAN 1!! But Much talked above VERY mild JAN is in Trouble. Strong Model agreement that Cold pattern Returns Jan 3. Two *POSSIBLE*

winter weather events JAN 7 & JAN 11. There are good "signals" that one o...r both of these events MIGHT be snowy. MORE on this on the web site MONDAY MORNING

The problem is not that DT busts - all Mets do. The problem is he puts his forecasts out like they are the WORD, PERIOD. Then, when he is called on a bust, he reacts like a crazyman.

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still snowing hard here

looks like my trace-2" will bust

about fookin' time we catch a break

as for Boston, yeah, they'll get close to what we got on 2/6/10, but they didn't see a flake when we had our bliz and we'll get several inches when they get theirs :P

Moving too fast. Some weenie up there will max out around 16 inches or so, I think. It will be winding down by tomorrow morning in some spots.

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