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January 11-12 Storm Obs/Discussion


clskinsfan

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I've still got freezing drizzle and it looks like I may never get into the good band. Here's a sounding that explains the freezing rain. There really was not a warm layer but warm cloud tops and I suspect some of the sleet reports were heavily rimed ice crystals but were white not clear like true sleet.

post-70-0-08309800-1294793437.gif

Note on the sounding where the temp and dewpoints lines are close together (where there is saturation) the temps never go below minus 6C. Where the temps are colder than that, the two lines diverge. You can't get ice crystals to from since most ice nuceii don't activate until the temps are colder than that. Discouraging as I noted that on one of my CWG posts and then the models get wetter and had deeper clouds and I never revisited the issue. I wish I had.

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this final wave might end up verifying (on the low end) some of the 2-4 forecasts. though the ratios were awful with that first one.. easily heavier snow than sat but didnt amount to that much more.

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Steady light snow. Another super skinny band approaching - should give us another fifteen second burst of snow before we enter the dry slot. The UL low will rob Peter to pay off Paul (NYC and SNE) leaving us in a massive subsidence zone while farther NE, greedy bastids feast riotously on tremendous snow rates all night long thru Wednesday and on into Wed night. The coastal will bomb resulting in strong winds and extremely heavy snow for the SNE - They'll get blizzard warnings, methinks

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