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January 11-12 Storm Obs/Discussion


clskinsfan

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disagree that it's that different than modeled. there may be less coastal play for some but on sim radars etc you could see the band moving in from the west.

right but it was supposed to fill further south and east and be less convective banded like it is now. The total lack of precip down towards EZF was a sign earlier. The coastal had almost no influence on this. We are getting a quick shot as the VV's from the upper energy out west moves by just to our north. In a way the GFS was pretty good on this, it was the NAM from yesterday and last nigth especially that failed.

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The UL energy is going to hit the NYC region and then the coastal will go postal and New Jersey, NYC and Boston will get utterly destroyed overnight. Some of those lucky bastids will be annihilated with over two feet of fresh powder. Then the wind will pile the snow up into 14 foot drifts and the American Wx Forums server will groan under the weight of all those damned pictures.

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right but it was supposed to fill further south and east and be less convective banded like it is now. The total lack of precip down towards EZF was a sign earlier. The coastal had almost no influence on this. We are getting a quick shot as the VV's from the upper energy out west moves by just to our north. In a way the GFS was pretty good on this, it was the NAM from yesterday and last nigth especially that failed.

yeah i think i agree for the most part. this is potentially a case where looking at the surface fails you. the 500 track has not been good for a while. i think my lack of living here long enough hurt a bit.. i didnt realize that jan 05 only dropped like 3.5" in the city... i thought it was like 6 or something. the gfs did really well as a whole imo outside the crazy 0z/6z runs it had a few days ago that were perfect here.

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