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January 11-12 Storm Obs/Discussion


clskinsfan

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SHORT TERM FORECAST

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

643 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2011

DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-501-502-VAZ027>031-040-042-052>054-

501>504-WVZ050>053-055-501>506-120200-

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-

NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-

EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-SHENANDOAH-

FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-

PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-

ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-

SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-

MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-

WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-WESTERN PENDLETON-

EASTERN PENDLETON-

643 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2011

.NOW...

BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF

NORTHERN MARYLAND...AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND THE

WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE

STEADILY EASTWARD NEAR 40 MPH...WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE

SNOW AFFECTING THESE AREAS THROUGH LATE EVENING. MOST AREAS WILL

RECEIVE A COATING TO A HALF INCH...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS NEAR AN

INCH THROUGH 9 PM.

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there is no coastal, this is from the primary over Ohio... look at the current surface, h7 and h5...do you see any energy associated with that weak trough along the coast? This has evolved totally different from modeled. There will be a coastal later tonight...as the upper energy from the west catches up to the weak wave along the coast it will finally deepen but right now the primary is still the low in the midwest going into PA.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/ruc/hr4/images/ruc_p01_000l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/ruc/hr4/images/ruc_700_000l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/ruc/hr4/images/ruc_500_000l.gif

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there is no coastal, this is from the primary over Ohio... look at the current surface, h7 and h5...do you see any energy associated with that weak trough along the coast? This has evolved totally different from modeled. There will be a coastal later tonight...as the upper energy from the west catches up to the weak wave along the coast it will finally deepen but right now the primary is still the low in the midwest going into PA.

http://www.nco.ncep....uc_p01_000l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep....uc_700_000l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep....uc_500_000l.gif

disagree that it's that different than modeled. there may be less coastal play for some but on sim radars etc you could see the band moving in from the west.

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It's insane how off the models were with this weather tonight

a 500 low passing to your north is bad 9.5 out of 10 times.. it generally means the coastal will bomb to your northeast. we may have gotten screwed slightly but in retrospect people were probably hoping for more than they should based on the look.

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We're going to get our .25" of QPF and still not get an inch of snow thanks to all this snow grain/sleet crap :axe:

That's precisely our plight. I think I have already had about .10 to .20 worth of steady freezing drizzle in the past few hours.

That's just great. It sucks to be stuck in the DC snow hole. We got drizzled right out of our allotted snow qpf.

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