meteorjosh Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NMM and ARW are looking really good through 18 hours. In what sense, surface placement, precip field, pressure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ARW, NMM, MM5, the three hi res meso models all line up remarkably well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 For those of you who don't know how to get the "early" access to the high-res models, you go to the regular NCEP page, and click on "Enhanced Experimental Model Analysis and Guidance Web Site" Then you click on model guidance. Then you select the model of your choice, and make E US your model area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NMM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This is just intense from the NMM sim Radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NMM and ARW are looking really good through 18 hours. WOW- take a look at the NMM sim radar and 3 hr precip for 21 hrs....just WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 WOW- take a look at the NMM sim radar and 3 hr precip for 21 hrs....just WOW It gives us over 1" of QPF in a 3-hour period!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS init. issue.. OFF THE MODEL INITIALIZATION AT 12Z, THE GFS APPEARS TOO FLAT WITH THE SERN TROF AT 500MB AND A FARTHER OFFSHORE WHILE INTERNALLY LOGICAL, MAY BE TOO EAST. THE WALLOPS 1C WARMER TEMPS AT 850MB ARE NOT EXTENDING THAT FAR INLAND AS APG AND IAD 850MB TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW -4C AND MODEL INITIALIZATION IS TOO WARM THERE. SO NO BIG PTYPE CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It gives us over 1" of QPF in a 3-hour period!!! all snow, thats 4 inches per hour for 3 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It gives us over 1" of QPF in a 3-hour period!!! I was just about to comment on that, but over central suffolk there is a stripe of 1.25in in 3 hours! if true that would lead to snowfall rates on the order of 4-5 in/hr which is just insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ARW and NMM agree that LI jackpots, but are different in their western extent. ARW only goes .75"+ for NYC, while the NMM is over 1.25". Substantial difference there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 WOW! That's over 2" of QPF in a 12-hour period in parts of Nassau County on the NMM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 WOW- take a look at the NMM sim radar and 3 hr precip for 21 hrs....just WOW If the meso models verify, 5 to 10 miles is going to make a huge difference in the five boroughs...pretty fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I was just about to comment on that, but over central suffolk there is a stripe of 1.25in in 3 hours! if true that would lead to snowfall rates on the order of 4-5 in/hr which is just insane Well if the ratios are 12:1 than 1" QPF per hour is 4 inches per hour. If its 1.25" in three hours its 5 inches per hour! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ARW and NMM agree that LI jackpots, but are different in their western extent. ARW only goes .75"+ for NYC, while the NMM is over 1.25". Substantial difference there. .75? NMM crushes the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 That radar estimate for 21hrs is pretty impressive it has to be said! Everything should start to get going very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Fascinating to see such agreement between NMM, ARW, and the SUNYMM5. Lots of discussion yesterday about the mesos and their weaknesses/strengths but clearly they all see the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Saying now than going to bed for a little while. JUST got home from my last midnight shift. Going with the MM5, low tracks between the Hamptons and Montauk point. Central Suffolk see's 1.00-1.15" QPF. See you boys in a few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 If the meso models verify, 5 to 10 miles is going to make a huge difference in the five boroughs...pretty fascinating. Some storms to consider.... Feb 1961... NYC 16 inches JFK 24 inches.... Feb 1969... NYC 15 inches JFK 24 inches.... Feb 1983... NYC 18 inches JFK 22 inches.... Feb 2003... NYC 20 inches JFK 26 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 WOW! That's over 2" of QPF in a 12-hour period in parts of Nassau County on the NMM! 2 inches per hour for 12 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 QPF output is remarkebly close to the boxing day event. Only difference is the JP zone is 10-20 miles further east. Let's not forget the trend has been closer to the coast and stronger. Still another model run or two to move it inland even further if the faster "bombing out" as indicated verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GFS does not suggest blizzard criteria winds at Islip or Westhampton. But NAM is awfully close to criteria winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 So ...albeit without the 60MPH winds of 12/26, can this eclipse the 15-16 inches that JFK recorded with .99 QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ARW and NMM agree that LI jackpots, but are different in their western extent. ARW only goes .75"+ for NYC, while the NMM is over 1.25". Substantial difference there. ARW is close to 1.25". Queens is close to the 1.50" shade NMM has the 1.50" line in all of Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I wouldn't bother with GFS, it is way off on placement and strength already with the coastal low, and it can't deepen such a compact low quick enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This time my area is the one who's only getting 6" while 30-40 miles to my east and northeast, they're getting 20-24"+ amounts. I'm fine with that considering I was near the jackpot of the Boxing Day Storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I wouldn't bother with GFS, it is way off on placement and strength already with the coastal low, and it can't deepen such a compact low quick enough. Good morning Jason.... hope you got enough sleep lol. This is going to be a fascinating day and night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ARW is close to 1.25". Queens is close to the 1.50" shade NMM has the 1.50" line in all of Queens. That's my bad on the ARW, I didn't let it finish snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 This time my area is the one who's only getting 6" while 30-40 miles to my east and northeast, they're getting 20-24"+ amounts. I'm fine with that considering I was near the jackpot of the Boxing Day Storm. You think youre going to mix? Because if Philly gets 6 inches, you'll get at least 10...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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