Ridingtime Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 HPC says Nam was weak and more south and east than where the storm is. I'm all for that. The NAM itself was freakin awesome. If it was too weak than reality I say bring it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Overall, the small variance in the short range models bodes cautionary for people west of the city, since they're on the fringe, heck even the city...but it does not dilute the fact that the City is still in good shape for 8-12", with the GFS not being too useful right now with its positioning and other factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Im curious to why the 12 GGEM isnt being posted in here... hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Im curious to why the 12 GGEM isnt being posted in here... hmm It's not out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 HPC says throw out the NAM and the GFS. To be honest...as we saw with the Boxing Day event, it's time to throw all the models out and make this a nowcasting event. We all know that the major global models are not very skilled at picking out the best banding features. NE NJ easily gets in on the heavy stuff and Western LI hits the JP. Too bad this system couldn't have found a way to stall out because this would have been historic for us. Instead it will be historic for New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The radar simply looks incredible for the storm's duration from NYC on east this run (MM5). There has to be some 2-3" snow rates/hour thrown in there especially for central Suffolk. The final map might be a lot like 12/19/09. Yea, we're going to be right on the edge of the heaviest snowfall rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It's not out yet. Go check the PHL thread...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It's not out yet. Coastal hugger... Bomb for the interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 And there she is;..... Oooh tasty... a nice deform band forms right over Fairfield Co right up the Litchfield Hills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Go check the PHL thread...lol That's the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Coastal hugger... Bomb for the interior That would be the RGEM, and yes, it was a very good run! The surface low goes right near Montauk--much further west than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Oooh tasty... a nice deform band forms right over Fairfield Co right up the Litchfield Hills Exactly, the models placement of the slp puts us right in the deform band I think fairfield county may be the NNJ for 12/26.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ARW is running.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 That would be the RGEM, and yes, it was a very good run! The surface low goes right near Montauk--much further west than the GFS. Hey I want that track lol.... no problem with mixing issues if its a Millenium storm type deal. Wouldnt mind this tracking over the Hamptons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Exactly, the models placement of the slp puts us right in the deform band I think fairfield county may be the NNJ for 12/26.... Yeah, it often seems like the best banding in every storm is JUST west of where most of the guidance places it. We're sitting pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I don't like how far off the SC coast the GFS initialized the surface low. Easy to locate on recent vis just to the S/SE of Wilmington. I'd say this current positoin is 25-50 West of GFS 12 z low position. Based on an early review of 12z runs so no reason why local nws offices will change snowfall forecasts. (expection could be Eastern Mass / Coastal RI b/c of mixing and likely dry slot) Comfirming the above, wind direction taking on a more easterly component at Hatteras with corresponding rise in surface temps. Hopefully, vort max will bring sl within and not outside of Hatteras. KHSE 111551Z AUTO 07008G17KT 10SM OVC011 10/07 A3009 RMK AO2 RAB22E29 SLP189 P0000 T01000067 TSNO KHSE 111451Z AUTO 05006G14KT 10SM OVC013 08/05 A3012 RMK AO2 SLP200 60000 T00830050 58005 TSNO KHSE 111351Z AUTO 06008KT 10SM OVC017 08/04 A3013 RMK AO2 SLP203 T00830044 TSNO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Is there a possibility for a blizzard warning to be issued for Suffolk County, NY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GGEM looks pretty good, probably .75" for NYC? LI gets hit nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Is there a possibility for a blizzard warning to be issued for Suffolk County, NY? I'd think its a distinct possibility, albeit not likely. if the mm5 is right with a 984mb low tucked in near montauk then ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The GGEM is out. Zooming in on the B and W maps, it looks like Nassau County on east gets 25mm+ in the 12 hour period from 7pm to 7am. There is a maximum of 32 mm somewhere in central Suffolk in that 12-hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 24hr maps aren't out yet but the mm5 appears to be a very nice hit for a lot of people in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 GGEM looks pretty good, probably .75" for NYC? LI gets hit nicely. The real ggem or the faux one in the philly thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The real ggem or the faux one in the philly thread? The real GGEM. It's inside the benchmark, looks fine. Consistent with the heaviest axis over LI/CT, with good snows for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ARW coming in stronger and further W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Hey I want that track lol.... no problem with mixing issues if its a Millenium storm type deal. Wouldnt mind this tracking over the Hamptons. A low that crosses any part of LI always concerns me, but this low deepens so fast and heights crash so fast that keeping it snow isn't a big problem. Any way you cut it, the storm will be amazingly dynamic. I just don't see how the far east GFS verifies, and I think it's a lot closer to the NAM. Already, surface obs show the low getting its act together right near Cape Fear, so it could still have some surprises yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The GGEM is out. Zooming in on the B and W maps, it looks like Nassau County on east gets 25mm+ in the 12 hour period from 7pm to 7am. There is a maximum of 32 mm somewhere in central Suffolk in that 12-hour period. FWIW TWC also upped their forecasts to 10-15 inches for NYC and 1 to two feet plus for Boston! They also said it will snow all day Wednesday NYC and Long Island. They had 4-6 inches for Philly but said that the low seems to bombing out sooner than expected and they might have to up their forecast for DC to 4-6 inches and up everyone else also-- dont know if theyre out to lunch on this or if its really bombing out sooner than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 MM5 Totals: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NMM and ARW are looking really good through 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 ARW simulated radar: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 NMM simulated radar: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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