A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 With the track the RGEM has, weird that it throws so little back to NYC (relatively). As for GFS, definitely a small shift west. 0z on left, 12z on right. Small shift west for sure, but the more important thing seems to be that area of much higher totals just offshore. Is the storm slower on the 12z GFS too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 THRU 18hrs the MM5 is further NW and a few MB's deeper than 0Z 12Z 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 At 3AM when the heavy banding extends from Passaic County NJ to Western LI and everyone is getting crushed I'll be their to say "I told you so". This is so much like the Boxing Day event in terms of what the models are depicting its hilarious. Mabye the heaviest banding will shift 10-20 miles further east making NYC and Western LI the JP zones but the higher ratios is NJ thanks to much less wind should make up the difference. Wouldn't be surprised to see 14-1 ratios near 287 and the favored higher terrain near West Milford cashing in on 12+" even with less than 1" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 THRU 18hrs the MM5 is further NW and a few MB's deeper than 0Z 12Z 0Z pure speculation at this point but it looks like the MM5 is going to be a very nice hit for the NYC metro on east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 MM5 is trying to go right....but will it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 HPC says that the Nam had feedback errors. I was thinking that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 12Z UKMET makes its patented westward adjustment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 In terms of track, RGEM looks a lot like the NAM and would likely be a similar solution. It's not all about the QPF which is often smoothed, and doesn't reflect very small scale banding/mesoscale aspects. Agree With the track the RGEM has, weird that it throws so little back to NYC (relatively). As for GFS, definitely a small shift west. 0z on left, 12z on right. RGEM is way west of GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 MM5 is trying to go right....but will it. see the maps i posted...it looks better, much better...at all levels. more precip aslo take a look at these two... 12Z 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 i think the MM5 is going to epic from central Nassau cty on east....its so much ramped up than 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Take a look at the differences between 12z and 0z on the MM5: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 i think the MM5 is going to epic from central Nassau cty on east....its so much ramped up than 0Z Agreed, dynamics look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I don't like how far off the SC coast the GFS initialized the surface low. Easy to locate on recent vis just to the S/SE of Wilmington. I'd say this current positoin is 25-50 West of GFS 12 z low position. Based on an early review of 12z runs so no reason why local nws offices will change snowfall forecasts. (expection could be Eastern Mass / Coastal RI b/c of mixing and likely dry slot) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I know it was already mentioned about the feedback on the NAM but I wanted to point out that HPC also said that the low is virtually the same position as 6z so its very possible that a solution closer to the 6z run is the better way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Toggle these two images. http://cheget.msrc.s...slp.24.0000.gif http://cheget.msrc.s...slp.36.0000.gif New MM5 almost wants to bring the low ashore around Montauk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 OMG- but i saw this coming- yes this is for 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Light rain currently in Chesapeake, VA. Making the 6 hour trek back to Edison, NJ in about an hour. Should I expect any major inconveniences during the journey? Speeding ticket watch issued if you can make that trip in 6 hours. May be downgraded to just a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 OMG- but i saw this coming- yes this is for 3 hours. Can you show prior period 18 & 21 hr QPF prinouts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 MT Holly OFF THE MODEL INITIALIZATION AT 12Z, THE GFS APPEARS TOO FLAT WITHTHE SERN TROF AT 500MB AND A FARTHER OFFSHORE WHILE INTERNALLY LOGICAL, MAY BE TOO EAST. THE WALLOPS 1C WARMER TEMPS AT 850MB ARE NOT EXTENDING THAT FAR INLAND AS APG AND IAD 850MB TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW -4C AND MODEL INITIALIZATION IS TOO WARM THERE. SO NO BIG PTYPE CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Can you show prior period 18 & 21 hr QPF prinouts? 18 hr 21hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 MM5 would produce a 12/26 type band over western Nassau and SW CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 18 hr 21hr MM5 is similar in QPF for NJ as the GFS actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Off-the cuff forecast here: EWR: 9" TEB: 8" HPN: 12" BDR: 14" DXR: 11" MMK: 18" NYC: 10" LGA: 12" FRG: 14" ISP: 14" OKX: 16" FOK: 14" Hope you are correct...looks similar to my entry from 10:30 last night (ne.wx contest): CAR: 1.5 BGR: 10 PWM: 12 CON: 10 BTV: 2 BOS: 16 HYA: 12 ORH: 18 PVD: 16 BDR: 13 BDL: 16 ALB: 9 BGM: 6 ISP: 15 JFK: 12 ABE: 6 MDT: 3 PHL: 7.5 ACY: 8 EWR: 11 BWI: 3 IAD: 1.5 DCA: 2 SBY: 2.5 RIC: 1.5 ORF: 1.3 RDU: 0.3 Comments: Woof! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 And there she is;..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 18 hr 21hr MM5 bombs just a few hours too late for folks west of Nassau, of course reality may prove to be different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 HPC says Nam was weak and more south and east than where the storm is. WITH THE WAVE OFF THE SERN COAST THE NAM SFC ANALYSIS IS ABOUT 2MB WEAKER THAN OBSERVED... AND MAY ALSO BE A LITTLE SSE OF THE OBSERVED POSN. DEPENDING ON THE FCST HR THE NAM MID LVL SYSTEM IS IN THE MIDDLE OR SLOWER HALF OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD. THE SFC LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST IS GENERALLY IN THE WRN THIRD OF THE ENVELOPE. FROM TUE INTO WED THE PAST 24 HRS OF NAM RUNS SHOW GRADUALLY FASTER TREND WITH LEADING MID LVL HGT FALLS PROGRESSING FROM THE MID MS VLY INTO THE MID ATLC/NEW ENGLAND. THIS TREND DIMINISHES BY F36 LATE WED. THE NAM COMPARES WELL TO OTHER WELL CLUSTERED GUIDANCE WITH WEAKENING SFC LOW PRESSURE TO THE W OF THE APLCHNS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The radar simply looks incredible for the storm's duration from NYC on east this run (MM5). There has to be some 2-3" snow rates/hour thrown in there especially for central Suffolk. The final map might be a lot like 12/19/09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 MM5 is similar in QPF for NJ as the GFS actually. read my comments- i said central nassau cty on east.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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