A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 lol OKX will probably be the jackpot of Long Island yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 lol OKX will probably be the jackpot of Long Island yet again. Yet again? When was the last time we were the jackpot? Certainly not last year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The models are handling the midwestern closed low quite well and the surface low passed just to east of buoy 41013, so its tucked in along the western periphery of solutions, don't know what would amount to as a bust in your eyes, but I feel pretty confident about us reaching warning criteria in most of our counties. For those of you out on the ledge about the storm "going east!" I'd suggest reading Rainshadow's (Tony from NWS-Mt. Holly) recent post, above, as well as their 7:55 am update: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --THROUGH THE 12Z OBS, A EURO AND CAN GGEM COMBO IS WORKING THE BEST WITH THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW, TUCKED IN CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN THE OTHER MODELS. AT 500MB ITS ABOUT THE SAME, NOT MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE BUT THE FORMER IS CLOSEST. ALL THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE MIDWESTERN CLOSED LOW EQUALLY AND QUITE WELL. LAST WALLOPS IS ALREADY UP TO +1C AT 850MB, ALL OF THE MODELS WERE TOO COLD WITH THEIR FCST 850MB TEMPS, WITH THE GFS THE CLOSEST. THIS ADDS THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE NON SNOW PTYPE ISSUES ALONG OUR COAST. NO CHANGES FOR NOW WILL HAVE THE FIRST 24HRS IN ON BOTH MODELS FOR THE 11 AM UPDATE. IT WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH THE WARM LAYER SEEN ON THE 0000 UTC KGSO AND KMHX SOUNDINGS HAS SLIPPED NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE SOUTHERNMOST DELMARVA PENINSULA. BASED ON THIS...THE POTENTIAL SLEET WAS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AS THE PRECIPITATION GETS STARTED. PUTTING THE REMAINING PIECES OF THE PUZZLE TOGETHER THIS MORNING... THE REMAINDER OF THE DELAWARE VALLEY CURRENTLY IN THE WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM WARNING...AS WILL NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND COASTAL OCEAN COUNTY NEW JERSEY. THE EASTERN MARYLAND COUNTIES CURRENTLY IN THE WATCH WILL BE CONVERTED TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. EASTERN SUSSEX COUNTY DELAWARE...AS WELL AS COASTAL SECTIONS OF CAPE MAY AND ATLANTIC COUNTIES WILL BE SWITCHED TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES...AS WILL THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN POCONOS. THE INGREDIENTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT ARE COMING TOGETHER THIS MORNING. A STRONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TO THE NORTH/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. THE SOUTHERN JET STREAK IS ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN JET STREAK LOCATED OVER MISSOURI. ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT A SURFACE LOW IS TRYING TO ORGANIZE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS LOOKS TO THE THE SYSTEM THAT WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY ONCE IT GETS TO OUR LATITUDE AND FURTHER NORTHEAST. FOR THE MOST PART...IT WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH THE PHASING OF THE TWO SHORT WAVES WILL OCCUR JUST AS IT REACHES OUR LATITUDE. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA IS A TRANSITION ZONE...AS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MOISTURE...AND NORTHEAST AREAS JUST GETTING INTO THE BEST LIFT AND DYNAMIC COOLING AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO PULL OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACES SHOULD SLOW THE NORTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING JUST EXITING...SOME PORTIONS OF THE AREAS (PARTICULARLY NORTHEAST) MAY EVEN SEE SOME SUNSHINE EARLY. AFTER THIS...THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN SHORT WAVE SHOULD MOISTENING THE COLUMN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD GET INTO DELAWARE AND EASTERN MARYLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON...REACHING A KPHL-KACY LINE BY ABOUT 600 PM. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW THE SNOW TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER IT STARTS. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL ACROSS EASTERN MARYLAND AND PORTIONS OF DELAWARE BEFORE DARK. THE AIRMASS HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST 2 DAYS. THE EXCEPTION HERE IS ALONG THE COAST. AS THE SURFACE HIGH FINALLY GETS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL TURN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ONSHORE. WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 40...AND AIR TEMPERATURES OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING IN THE LOWER 30S...HIGHS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD GET ABOVE FREEZING. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEM. AS THE PRECIPITATION STARTS...EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO START AS SNOW...BUT ONCE THIS IS USED UP...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS BACK ABOVE FREEZING. THIS SHOULD CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO RAIN.-- End Changed Discussion -- http://forecast.weat...=1&highlight=on One more point: I would imagine that if mixing/rain are issues along the immediate Jersey Shore, then the same may be true for at least the eastern parts of LI. This is not a forecast, just an observation that things often work out that way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Light rain currently in Chesapeake, VA. Making the 6 hour trek back to Edison, NJ in about an hour. Should I expect any major inconveniences during the journey? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yet again? When was the last time we were the jackpot? Certainly not last year... Yes last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Did Craig Allen call for 12-20 inches for NYC?? Yes, but he said it for across the area....less to the west of the city and more to the east of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Yet again? When was the last time we were the jackpot? Certainly not last year... OKX always has the highest totals on Long Island-- or at least more often than not. This was already discussed a few days ago. Specifically, with regards to last winter, they had the highest totals on Long Island in the Dec 19. 2009 storm. I didnt mean the have the highest totals in the metro area, I meant they usually have the highest totals of any place on Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 12z NAM totals: LGA: 1.22" JFK: 1.32" NYC: 1.12" EWR: .93" ISP: 1.75" OKX: 1.87" HPN: 1.38" BDR: 1.87" that is .34 more for JFK than 12/26...i wonder how this is going to play out... anyone have any idea what the avg qpf output was for JFK the day before the storm (say 12Z or 18Z saturday)....thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 that is .34 more for JFK than 12/26...i wonder how this is going to play out... anyone have any idea what the avg qpf output was for JFK the day before the storm (say 12Z or 18Z saturday)....thanks. The difference was that it was colder before and during that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 that is .34 more for JFK than 12/26...i wonder how this is going to play out... anyone have any idea what the avg qpf output was for JFK the day before the storm (say 12Z or 18Z saturday)....thanks. We might actually get to see thundersnow this time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The difference was that it was colder before and during that storm. Barely. Neither airmass is arctic but if anything this seems like a colder storm to me, at least for LI. We mixed with sleet on 12/26, something i don't expect to happen with this one for any appreciable amount of time. (for north shore and areas west of the forks) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I cant stay up all night with work in the morning Yeah, Im hoping it lasts into the morning, but the NAM wont play nice with us This is why I dont rank the 12/19 storm from last winter on our top 10 list. When I woke up the snow was winding down lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 RGEM out to 12 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/591_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Off-the cuff forecast here: EWR: 9" TEB: 8" HPN: 12" BDR: 14" DXR: 11" MMK: 18" NYC: 10" LGA: 12" FRG: 14" ISP: 14" OKX: 16" FOK: 14" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Through 12 hours, the Rgem has equal strength, 1012 low and equal Low position to the 12z NAM. Perhaps even slightly west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Off-the cuff forecast here: EWR: 9" TEB: 8" HPN: 12" BDR: 14" DXR: 11" MMK: 18" NYC: 10" LGA: 12" FRG: 14" ISP: 14" OKX: 16" FOK: 14" Would JFK be between LGA and FRG? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Through 12 hours, the Rgem has equal strength, 1012 low and equal Low position to the 12z NAM. Perhaps even slightly west. it's also in line with its 06z run (RGEM( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 RGEM is west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 The difference was that it was colder before and during that storm. Those powerful winds destroyed the ratios by braking down the dendrites and packing them in like winds creating sand dunes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think the RGEM is west enough-- any more west than that and we'd have mixing and/or dry slot issues. It's like one or two pixels south of the south shore as it is lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think the RGEM is west enough-- any more west than that and we'd have mixing and/or dry slot issues. It's like one or two pixels south of the south shore as it is lol. Low goes right on top of Montauk on the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It has the entire NJ/NYC in the 10 - 25 MM QPF with a center over LI of 37 MM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 I think the RGEM is west enough-- any more west than that and we'd have mixing and/or dry slot issues. It's like one or two pixels south of the south shore as it is lol. Nah... Lets keep the trend comin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 got my eye on a northeast zoom of GFS, which is starting to come out and will see if there is any unexepected changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 Nah... Lets keep the trend comin I agree, 10-25 mm doesn't do it for me as I was in Japan on the 26th watching the news and crying at my misfortune Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 RGEM shifted the QPF east. It matches SREFS. NYC is 15-20mm .60"-.75" Suffolk County is over 1.25" That is a big cutdown off of 6z and 0z RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 RGEM shifted the QPF east. It matches SREFS. NYC is 15-20mm .60"-.75" Suffolk County is over 1.25" That is a big cutdown off of 6z and 0z RGEM. It looked like more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 RGEM shifted the QPF east. It matches SREFS. NYC is 15-20mm .60"-.75" Suffolk County is over 1.25" That is a big cutdown off of 6z and 0z RGEM. i think the track and overall qpf look good. I also cang get a good total from the canadian web site maps. Wait for the metrocentre maps, which were more telling 00 and 06z for those west of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 11, 2011 Share Posted January 11, 2011 It looked like more. Nope. Thats only 15mm for NYC from hour 12-24. With maybe 1-2 mm after, at most. 15mm is only .60" of QPF for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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